Canadian Stock Market Trends - 08012023

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Good Morning,

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everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning, the first trading day of August.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index

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futures are below fair value as are commodities.

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So far, it looks like we are going to see

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some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, of

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course, we ended July on a very positive note up at the top of the range.

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If we look at the distance between the previous peaks, you can see that we are at

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the time and place where we should should be looking for a pullback.

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If we look at the previous tops, they did take several weeks to form.

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So it is possible that the market could hold on for another week or two.

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And then we wouldn't be surprised to see a sell off into the month of September.

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Looking at the right side chart for the iShares for the TSX 60, you can see the

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big dip we had on Thursday with that news from the Bank of Japan.

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But the market recovered fairly well and we moved back up.

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Remember, our magic number up here is 31.25. We closed just above that at 31.39.

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And again, we're looking for a pullback at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Well, we also saw the DOW, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all end the month of August.

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On a positive note, the Nasdaq looks like

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it is set up for the first index to give us a sell signal.

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That, of course, has not happened yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Nasdaq

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started to lead the market lower over the next few days.

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Next up, let's take a look at the fear index.

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And as I mentioned over the weekend, the

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VIX has been in a tight trading range for the last couple of months.

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So the market is very comfortable down here at this range.

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And so a little move on our daily right side chart probably isn't going to spook

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them that much as it would have previously.

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So last week we had the big move up on Thursday, pull back on Friday, and Monday

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was neutral as we were trading in the channel.

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For the market to really notice what options traders are doing, we really need

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a breakout above the top of the fly paper channel, which is currently at around $17.

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So that's probably what it's going to take to really spook the market.

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Otherwise, everybody's just too overconfident down at these levels.

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Moving on to commodity prices.

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We saw copper continue to move higher on Monday, and of course, that is very

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supportive for a lot of Canadian mining stocks.

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Gold, on the other hand, was up yesterday.

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It's down $10 or so last time I checked in the premarket.

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So gold not seeing fall through to the upside.

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That's also true for the price of silver.

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Now, crude oil, on the other hand, has

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seen fall through to the upside and is heading up towards the top of our

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projected trading range on the daily charts.

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Of course, we have higher targets on the weekly charts if we can take out $ 81.25.

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And of course, if we take out $ 81.25 and hold those levels above that, we will come

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up with new price projections for the price of crude oil.

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Natural gas, on the other hand, just

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trading water here in the channel, still on a sell signal.

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Looking at the price of wheat, we had the big run up on news out of Ukraine and

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Russia, and it looks like we put in a double top here.

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Now we've come down over the past couple of days and we're back on a sell signal.

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Looking at the price of lumber, no joy here, still on a sell signal.

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Nothing good happening in the world of lumber.

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Lower highs and lower lows.

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The best performing sector on the TSX for

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Monday's trading action was the energy sector.

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And so looking at the Stockhouse Bullboards here are the top stocks that

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they are following on the Bullboards, starting off with Baytex, making a new

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high yesterday before pulling back and closing unchanged on the day.

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If you had an order in at 5.47, congratulations, that got filled.

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We did make a higher high there but did not hold it.

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And if we can take out yesterday's high, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a move

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up to 5.86. Then looking at at the Athabasca, we are

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back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.

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We traded through the upper channel line yesterday but did not hold it.

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So we're looking for a close on Tuesday above $3.46.

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Then looking at Suncor, making a new high for this move, breaking out above our

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price target of 40.63. Now we're looking for a move up to 42.

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19.

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You can see we peaked just below that back in late April.

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If we can continue to move higher from there, then 43.75 comes into play.

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I always ask you to look to the left to see if that's a realistic target.

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And you can certainly see that back in April, we were up at those levels.

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And then looking at Crescent Point, we're still well above the upper channel line,

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so not concerned about a sell signal on Tuesday.

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Next up, let's take a look at the most popular industrials from the Bullboards.

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And starting off with the Pyrogenesis.

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This stock has been broken for a while.

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You can see there was a low risk buying opportunity there.

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We moved up, put in a lower high, which of course is a warning.

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There's the early warning signal going off.

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And as we came back down, we were looking

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for a cycle low right here in the middle of April.

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That didn't happen and we continued to move lower.

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And so then in late May, we put in a lower high and came back down.

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Now we've put in a lower low.

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So this is a very bearish chart.

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Of course, that could change at any time.

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We traded up to the 100 day moving average yesterday.

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We traded into the Fly Paper channel.

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Now we're looking to see if we can break out of the Fly Paper channel.

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Two big updates.

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So we're on our second day of a buy signal here.

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Our first price target was $0.98. We

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traded through that yesterday, but we closed right at $0.98 s.

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If we can continue to move higher and take

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out yesterday's high, then $1.07 and 117 certainly come into play.

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Looking at Bombardier, we're up trading just below the highs from back in June.

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If we can take those out, then $0. 68, $0.

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75 and 71.

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88 come into play.

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Looking down, of course, we're well above

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the upper channel line, so not concerned about a possible sell signal on Tuesday.

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Looking at EXRO, not much going on here at the moment.

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We have made a couple of higher lows

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and we recently made a higher high for this move.

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So we're just looking at this area here.

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We traded through the upper channel line yesterday.

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It closed on Tuesday above $2.28, which would give us a buy signal.

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And then $2.54 and $2.73 would come into play.

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Now, something happened to this stock in early May.

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Up until that point, investors were

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willing to buy the dips and then that started to fall apart.

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And we have not seen aggressive selling here.

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So the stock is definitely worth two dollars.

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Nobody wants to sell it below two dollars.

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But what we're waiting for is some of these people to come back and buy the dip

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so that we can get back on track and start heading up towards three dollars.

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Once again, that has not started yet, but it may start at any time.

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Then looking at Xtract One, we're looking

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to see if support holds here at the $0.78. We closed at $0.80 yesterday.

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If we continue lower than 68 cents is our next target to the downside.

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Looking up on Tuesday, if things turned

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around on Tuesday, a close above 86 cents would give us a new buy signal.

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Then looking at Air Canada coming off the top of the Panic Zones, early warning

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signal went off, we're starting to move down, we're on a sell signal.

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If the bullish story for Air Canada is

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going to stay intact, we need the stock to trade down and hold the Fly Paper channel,

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which is currently at $22 to 23 dollars but moving higher daily.

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So that's where we would expect to find support.

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If we don't find support there, then that

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opens up a new chapter for Air Canada at this time.

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Let's finish off looking at crypto stocks.

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And we still have Bitcoin and Ethereum on sell signals.

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But crypto stocks came back on Monday and

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you can see Bitfarm sitting right on the upper channel line.

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So any higher close would give us a buy

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signal on Tuesday Galaxy traded up to the upper channel line yesterday.

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So a close above yesterday's high would give us a buy signal for Hive.

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We're looking for a close on Tuesday above

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$7.37. Our last stock this morning, Hut 8,

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looking for a close on Tuesday above $4.92 to give us a new daily buy signal.

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If that doesn't happen, of course, that

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upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Now, since I started the presentation, it

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looks like stock index futures and commodities have come down a bit.

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We do have gold currently trading down $16.

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The DOW is down 85.

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So we are looking for some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Have a great day, folks.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.