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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:05com.
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00:00:06In the premarket this morning, things are very quiet.
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00:00:08The market is waiting for employment numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning,
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00:00:13and those numbers will certainly add some volatility to the market.
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00:00:17Now, the market was again focused on interest rates on Thursday, where we saw
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00:00:21another pop in bond yields and bonds continue to move lower this week.
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00:00:27So the market is very concerned about the July Fed meeting, and there's currently
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00:00:32just under a 90 % chance of a quarter to a half point rate hike in July.
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00:00:37That's what the market is anticipating right now.
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00:00:41We got a big pop in the VIX yesterday, so
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00:00:43it is back on a buy signal that, of course, can be negative for stocks.
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00:00:48We closed right at the first price target, looking for a move up to 18.75, and then
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00:00:54we'll look to see if we can challenge the recent highs from the month of May.
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00:00:59Looking at what worked yesterday and what
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00:01:01didn't work, well, nothing worked in the Canadian market.
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00:01:04Biggest loser was health care followed by energy, followed by info tech.
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00:01:08In the US, info tech actually lost the least amount.
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00:01:12Those big cap tech stocks are still holding the market up.
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00:01:16Biggest loser in the US on Thursday was the energy sector.
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00:01:20We did see the QQQ's pull back into the channel.
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00:01:23They were down just a little over three quarters of a %.
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00:01:27On Friday, we're looking for a close below 363.47 to give us a sell signal.
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00:01:32Semiccondctors gapped lower yesterday, sitting right on the lower channel line.
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00:01:37So we're looking for a close below 214.09
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00:01:40on Friday to give us a sell signal for the chip sector.
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00:01:44Lots of areas of the technology sector have rolled over, whether you're looking
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00:01:48at robotics or AI, they have rolled over already.
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00:01:53We're just waiting for those big cap tech stocks that the market likes to follow to
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00:01:57roll over, and that has has not happened yet.
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00:02:01Canadian InfoTech is back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:02:06We're looking at the DOW Diamond's back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:02:10S&P 500, still looking for a close below 436.65 on Friday to give us a sell signal.
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00:02:17Then looking at the iShares for the TSX
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00:02:1960, we closed one penny below the lower channel line yesterday.
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00:02:24So we are technically back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:02:28Of course, the biggest loser in the
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00:02:29Canadian market on Thursday was the energy sector.
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00:02:33Looking at the iShares for the energy
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00:02:35sector, still looking for a close below $14.19 on Friday.
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00:02:40Moving on, let's take a look at the TSX most active.
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00:02:43I'm going to use the same list that we
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00:02:45used yesterday morning, which is I think more valuable for training purposes.
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00:02:50TD Bank sold off yesterday.
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00:02:52It came down to the upper channel line
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00:02:54while Bank of Nova Scotia zoomed right past the lower channel line
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00:02:58and is back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:03:02Looking at TC Energy, we needed a close
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00:03:05below 52.35. We closed at 52.39, so just five cents away from a sell signal.
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00:03:12We've got Enbridge back on a sell signal.
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00:03:14We've got Canadian Natural Resources back on a sell signal.
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00:03:18No change for HUT 8.
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00:03:21A slight light pull back there after making a new high.
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00:03:25Then looking at Manulife, we are back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:03:29Remember, we were watching Manulife to see if it would hold 25.
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00:03:34Once that broke, we looked for a move down to the next line.
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00:03:37We turned around, came back up.
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00:03:39What was previously support is now acting as resistance.
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00:03:43It'll be interesting to see if the market
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00:03:45will hold the low from a couple of weeks ago.
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00:03:49Looking at Crescent Point, we need a close on Friday below $8.67. No change there.
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00:03:56Algonquin Power looking for a close below $10.80 on Friday.
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00:03:59Then Osisko Gold, which was the big loser on the previous day, actually closed
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00:04:05higher on the day, having an inside day or a day of indecision.
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00:04:08Then looking at a couple of other big cap gold stocks that we looked at yesterday,
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00:04:12we've got Barrick, we closed at 21.70. We were looking for a close below
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00:04:1821.77. So we are back on a sell signal as is Agnico Eagle.
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00:04:24Moving on to the US most active, starting off with Tesla.
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00:04:28Small pull back there, no change in trend, of course.
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00:04:31We saw a new high for Rivian.
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00:04:34The top of our projected trading range was 21.88, got as high as 21.77 yesterday.
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00:04:41And of course, there's no guarantee that
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00:04:43the top of our projected trading range is going to hold us back.
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00:04:47Then we've got NIO pulling back into the
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00:04:49channel, a close below 918 on Friday would give us a sell signal.
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00:04:53No change in trend for Carnival, small
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00:04:56pullback yesterday, closing just above the previous day's low.
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00:05:01Then looking at Lucid,
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00:05:04when you compare this chart to this chart, of course, this one's a little weaker and
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00:05:08it looks like we might be putting in a lower high.
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00:05:11We ran up, filled the open gap and have started to pull back.
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00:05:14Looking looking for a close below 6.37 on Friday.
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00:05:18Then for pull back to the upper channel line, looking for a close below
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00:05:2314.52. Then we've got AMD still on a cell signal, no change there.
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00:05:28Close above 115.48 would give us a buy signal on Friday.
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00:05:32Then Apple pulling back intra day, but then actually closing higher on the day.
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00:05:38So looking for a close below 187.75 on Friday to give us a sell signal.
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00:05:44Once Apple and Tesla go, then the rest of the market is going to sell off sharply.
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00:05:50That hasn't happened yet.
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00:05:52Then we're looking at a marathon, a small pullback there after making a new high.
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00:05:57Then we've got Palantir trading in the
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00:06:00channel looking for a close below 14.74 on Friday.
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00:06:05Let's finish off today's presentation looking at commodities.
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00:06:08Crude oil was down slightly yesterday.
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00:06:10It is up slightly in the premarket this morning.
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00:06:13Gasoline was up yesterday.
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00:06:15Natural gas sitting right on the edge of a new daily sell signal looking for a close
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00:06:20below 7.04. We closed at 7.04. Natural gas is trading up slightly in the premarket.
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00:06:27Then the GLD was down yesterday looking
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00:06:29for a close above 179.12 on Friday to give us a buy signal.
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00:06:34No change for Palladian or for Platinum on Thursday.
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00:06:38Then silver slipped and we are looking for a close below 20.84. We closed at
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00:06:4420.83. The SLV back on a sell signal as of Thursday's close.
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00:06:50Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:06:52Waiting for those employment numbers to come out at 8 30, and then we should
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00:06:56expect volatility to expand in the premarket.
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00:07:00Have a great day and next time you'll hear my voice is on Sunday.