Stock Market Timing Television - 04262023

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Good morning everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the uptrend.com in the pre market this

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morning, stock index futures are above fair value.

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So so far it looks like we're gonna see a little buying at the Open on Wednesday

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morning and most of that buying is going to be in the tech sector.

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Now Tuesday finally gave us a buy signal for the VIX and sell signals for all the

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major indices including the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the TSX 60.

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Now what worked and what didn't work on Tuesday?

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Well looking at the major sectors you can see on the TSX there was only one winner

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and that was utilities up a little over a quarter of a percent.

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While energy stocks were the biggest losers in the US market, there were no

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winners and materials were the biggest losers on Tuesday.

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Now there's lots of stocks in the news this morning, a lot of earnings out for

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companies that we follow on a regular basis.

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There's one that I want to talk about and that's Activision.

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It was supposed to be taken over by

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Microsoft and it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

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The UK regulatory body has said no.

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And so now Activision is down about 10% in the pre market.

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Now if you go back in time, the deal

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started way back here back at the start of 2022.

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If I had owned this stock back then, I would have taken the money and run.

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Now I actually took Activision out of the

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database for the longest time and put it back recently.

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I am not going to sit around and wait for a better offer.

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I'm not going to sit around and wait for

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somebody else to put an offer on the table.

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That usually doesn't happen.

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And what often happens is what's happening right now is deals don't go through.

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So I'm not going to sit for over a year

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with my money in Activision waiting to see if there's a better deal on the table.

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And as you can see we were recently trading back up to the high we saw back at

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the start of all this and so now we're trading down this morning.

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So this would have been dead money this whole time.

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You would have had no mathematical

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advantage to holding this stock for all this period of time.

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There are lots of other things to do with

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your money than just sit and hold and wait for the deal to finally go through.

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Now Microsoft, which was down yesterday, it's been down the last couple of days, is

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trading higher in the pre market and that's one of the reasons that Nasdaq

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futures contract is trading up this morning.

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So it looks like Microsoft may end the day on a buy signal.

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Of course we'll have to wait for the end of the day to see how things settle down.

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Now there was a lot of volatility on Tuesday you saw the VIX was higher, you

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saw the major indices are all back on sell signals.

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We had a spike in the US dollar index.

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It's not back on a buy signal just yet,

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but you can see that money went back into the bond market.

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There's the 30 year bond back on a buy signal.

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Bond yields were down sharply yesterday,

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so you can see money moving around outside of the stock market.

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Now, gold was up yesterday, it ended the

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day just above $2,000, so that's a good sign.

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Silver was down yesterday, it's back on a sell signal.

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As of Tuesday's close.

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Gold miners were up yesterday.

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The GDX was up to the lower channel line.

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We saw some more strength in the Canadian

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market where we traded up into the Channel.

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So for the XGD.TO, we're looking for a close on Wednesday above $20.35.

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Now, speaking of miners, we saw a big sell

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off in copper yesterday, so that's not a good sign for the global economy.

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Crude oil was down yesterday.

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Natural gas was down, not enough to give us a new sell signal.

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And so there's the energy stocks in the US, they were down.

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This particular ETF was down 1.88%, while in Canada we were down 1.94%.

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Now, financials were down across the board

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on Tuesday, we've got the XLF back on a sell signal.

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That has a lot to do with First Republic.

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Remember, First Republic is one of those regional banks.

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It was the big winner on Monday, up 20%, and on Tuesday it was down nearly 50%.

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It's down again in the pre market.

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We closed at 8.10 yesterday, it's down around $7.

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Nobody watching these videos should be involved in any regional bank.

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They're one breath away from zero and you never want to have your money in anything

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that's one breath away from being valued at zero.

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It's just not worth the risk.

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Yeah, you could have been up 20% on Monday, then you're down 50% on Tuesday,

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you're going to be down another 30% on Wednesday.

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It's just not worth it.

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And it's very hard to short these stocks.

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It's hard to find for your broker to find shares to short at this particular point.

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We always talk about shorting off the top

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of the panic zones and we're very far away from the top of the panic zones.

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So we've got US banks back on a sell signal.

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You can compare the financial ETF to banks themselves.

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The banks got back on a buy signal and now we're back on a sell signal.

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No upward momentum.

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And that, of course, is certainly true for the regional banks.

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Then looking at broker dealers, we're back on a sell signal.

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US insurance companies back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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Now, looking at Canadian financials, they're also back on a sell signal.

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Canadian banks also back on a sell signal.

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We're being led lower by the CIBC.

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Second day of a sell signal there.

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And the TD bank is finally back on a sell signal.

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So if you've been waiting to short the TD bank, this is your opportunity.

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You can short it on Wednesday morning if you want.

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And then, of course, you would cover that

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short if we closed above 82 65 on Wednesday.

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Let's finish off this morning's presentation with a couple of comments.

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We've been pounding the recession

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drum for quite a while, and that hasn't stopped the major indices from moving up.

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We've had a nice rally since the low in March.

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A couple of comments here.

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You can look back and see where we peaked back at the start of the year, and we just

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put in a lower high, which is a bearish sign, of course.

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Now, we've often mentioned the fact that this rally has been led higher by a

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handful of big cap stocks, and the rest of the market has not really participated.

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And so when we talk about the rest of the market, we could talk about the Russell

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2000 or we could talk about those micro cap stocks.

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Neither really participated in this rally.

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Yes, they got off the floor, but they really didn't get very far.

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And so that is the overall market and that's kind of a bearish sign.

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So now what we're going to be looking for,

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does the Russell 2000, do the micro cap stocks, do they hold the low from March,

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or do they start to break the low from March?

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That'll be the next thing that we're looking for.

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Now in the pre market this morning, stock index futures are higher.

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They're being led higher by a handful of tech stocks.

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And we'll have to see how that holds up throughout the day.

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And of course, we'll be looking to see how the market closes to see what we do next.

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Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention.

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Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.