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Fair value of Dow futures currently down a hundred, hundred
Fair value of Dow futures currently down a hundred, hundred ninety points
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Are the market was fairly quiet and trading right around
Are the market was fairly quiet and trading right around fair value for most of the morning
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We're seeing right now has started recently, of course, I
We're seeing right now has started recently, of course, I could change, but from where I'm sitting right now, it looks like we're going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning for the biggest
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Yesterday was the continued decline of the Chinese market which
Yesterday was the continued decline of the Chinese market which should I Gap lower at once again
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So here we are seeing what's up, you know, this
So here we are seeing what's up, you know, this is what Panic selling is
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And of course, you do not want to consider shorting
And of course, you do not want to consider shorting the Chinese market at the moment even though it could go lower, this would be the highest risk time to do that
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If you're interested in the Chinese market and interested in
If you're interested in the Chinese market and interested in Chinese stocks, you should be doing your homework right now and looking for which stocks you To buy on the way back up, but the across-the-board Chinese
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All, the Chinese stocks Gap, lower and do a lot
All, the Chinese stocks Gap, lower and do a lot of a North American stocks that have large Chinese and Chinese exposure also got, hit hard yesterday
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One example that didn't really get hit hard yesterday, is
One example that didn't really get hit hard yesterday, is Nike, Nike comes up and just about every conversation about the Chinese market and Chinese exposure
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You say, if I Nike starts running to the downside,
You say, if I Nike starts running to the downside, of course, that could hurt the Dow than a Nike is a Dow 30 stocks
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And right now, all the excitement in the market is
And right now, all the excitement in the market is focused around the Dow and the Dow 30, which I made a new high for this move yesterday
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So, confidence, in, in my mind, I'm not very confident
So, confidence, in, in my mind, I'm not very confident what's going on
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Rather see technology stocks lead, the market higher and I'd
Rather see technology stocks lead, the market higher and I'd rather see chip stocks lead the technology stocks higher and then of course you can look and see what micro-caps are doing
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There's the ishares microcopy GF, there's a venture Exchange in
There's the ishares microcopy GF, there's a venture Exchange in Canada
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And so this is still a risk on situation and
And so this is still a risk on situation and people are flooding into those big, Dow 30 stocks, but not the rest of the market just yet
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Next upload said, take a look at the vix and
Next upload said, take a look at the vix and what I've noticed about the vix of courses
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As there were back at previous Peaks, are we seem
As there were back at previous Peaks, are we seem to be stuck in a range right now? If you can see that
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And so 3438 at the highs and 2813, we traded
And so 3438 at the highs and 2813, we traded the down, just above the 2813 level a few times and and Our funding support down there
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So we're looking for a break out of this range
So we're looking for a break out of this range to tell us which way we're going to go
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You can see we are in the short-term cell signal
You can see we are in the short-term cell signal which is bullish for stocks that would change this week
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If the vics were too close above 30 to 13
If the vics were too close above 30 to 13 and if we can get above 32 13, then I would expect
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We're going to take out the recent highs and head
We're going to take out the recent highs and head towards the $40 area
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Where range-bound here, we put in a recent high in
Where range-bound here, we put in a recent high in a recent low or still trading within that range
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So that doesn't tell us much just yet, I'm the
So that doesn't tell us much just yet, I'm the euro is back on a by signal
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If we took out the high from early October and
If we took out the high from early October and the Canadian dollars back on a by signal, pulled back into the channel yesterday
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So back on the bicycle as of Friday's close and
So back on the bicycle as of Friday's close and the British pound has been the treading water over the past few days at not much movement
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So the market has stabilized a bit but there certainly
So the market has stabilized a bit but there certainly were not making higher highs for the British pound
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Now the price of gold had a wild day yesterday,
Now the price of gold had a wild day yesterday, traded up to the upper Channel, 9 ended the day
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Now, silver is Traditionally, a lot more volatile than the
Now, silver is Traditionally, a lot more volatile than the price of gold
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So you expect to see a lot more volatility in
So you expect to see a lot more volatility in the price of silver than you would in the price of gold
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If those were verse for some particular reason that, you
If those were verse for some particular reason that, you know, that the hell is about to freeze over looking at the bonds, bonds, made a new low yesterday, bunso bond yields made a new high ISO
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We're still on a cell signal here, that would change
We're still on a cell signal here, that would change on Tuesday with a close above 8692 natural, gas up
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Are we putting in a bottom here? While we'll just
Are we putting in a bottom here? While we'll just have to wait and see how we need to close above 684 on Tuesday to give us a Buy Signal for natural gas, okay? Folks that is
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We are getting a little over bought on a short-term
We are getting a little over bought on a short-term basis, but haven't got there yet
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Are you can see that? It's really the dowel that
Are you can see that? It's really the dowel that is the pushing the market higher not of the rest of the major indices and that is something to be concerned about
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00:00:00Good morning everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from Theuptrend.com. In the pre market
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00:00:07this morning stock index futures are currently down below fair value.
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00:00:10Down future is currently down 190 points.
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00:00:13The market was fairly quiet and trading
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00:00:16right around fair value for most of the morning.
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00:00:19So the sell off we're seeing right now has started recently.
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00:00:22Of course it could change but from where I'm sitting right now it looks like we're
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00:00:25going to see some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.
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00:00:29Well the biggest story in the investment world yesterday was the continued decline
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00:00:32of the Chinese market which gapped lower once again.
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00:00:36So here we are seeing
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00:00:39this is what Panic Selling is and of course you do not want to consider
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00:00:43shorting the Chinese market at the moment even though it could go lower.
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00:00:47This would be the highest risk time to do that.
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00:00:51This of course is the time and place.
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00:00:52If you're interested in the Chinese market
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00:00:54and interested in Chinese stocks, you should be doing your homework right
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00:00:58now and looking for which stocks you want to buy on the way back up.
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00:01:02But across the board Chinese stocks got hit hard yesterday.
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00:01:05Whether you're looking at Baidu or Ten Cent, they both gap lower.
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00:01:09All the Chinese stocks gap lower and a lot of North American stocks that have large
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00:01:15Chinese exposure also got hit hard yesterday.
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00:01:18So Las Vegas Sands, Starbucks are two examples.
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00:01:22One example that didn't really get hit hard yesterday is Nike.
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00:01:25Nike comes up in just about every
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00:01:27conversation about the Chinese market and Chinese exposure.
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00:01:30But the Nike shares were down just a little over half a percent yesterday.
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00:01:36If Nike starts running to the downside of course that could hurt the Dow then
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00:01:41Nike is a Dow 30 stock and right now all the excitement in the market is focused
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00:01:46around the Dow and the Dow 30 which made a new high for this move yesterday.
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00:01:51So confidence in my mind I'm not very confident in what's going on.
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00:01:55I would much rather see more of a risk on trade right now.
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00:01:59I'd rather see technology stocks lead
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00:02:01the market higher and I'd rather see chip stocks lead the technology stocks higher.
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00:02:06And then of course you can look and see what Microcaps are doing.
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00:02:10There's the Ishares, Microcap ETF.
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00:02:12There's the Venture exchange in Canada.
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00:02:14In both situations we're not really trending anywhere at the moment and so
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00:02:19this is still a risk on situation and people are flooding into those big Dow
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00:02:2430 stocks but not the rest of the market just yet.
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00:02:29Next up, let's take a look at the VIX.
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00:02:31And what I've noticed about the VIX of course is there's no early warning
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00:02:34signals up here as there were back at previous peaks.
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00:02:37We seem to be stuck in a range right now.
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00:02:40If you can see that we need to head down
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00:02:42towards the $20 level if we're going to get a Christmas rally,
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00:02:46but right now we're stuck in a range we've been in for a few weeks now.
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00:02:50And so 34.38 at the highs and 28.13.
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00:02:54We traded down just above the 28.13 level
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00:02:58a few times and are finding support down there.
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00:03:01So we're looking for a breakout of this
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00:03:03range to tell us which way we're going to go next.
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00:03:06You can see we're still above the Flypaper Channel.
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00:03:08You can see we are in a short term sell signal, which is bullish for stocks.
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00:03:12That would change this week if the VIX were to close above 32.13.
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00:03:17And if we can get above 30 213, then I would expect we're going to take
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00:03:21out the recent highs and head towards the $40 area.
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00:03:26Next up, let's take a look at those megatrends.
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00:03:28And the US dollar index is officially back on a shortterm sell signal.
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00:03:32Again. We're range bound here.
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00:03:34We put in a recent high and a recent low.
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00:03:36We're still trading within that range, so that doesn't tell us much just yet.
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00:03:41The Euro is back on a buy signal and again
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00:03:44we'd get more excited if we took out the high from early October.
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00:03:49And the Canadian dollar is back on a buy signal, pulled back into the channel
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00:03:52yesterday, so back on a buy signal as of Friday's close.
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00:03:56And the British pound has been treading water over the past few days.
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00:04:00Not much movement yesterday,
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00:04:02given that the next temporary prime minister was named yesterday.
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00:04:06So the market has stabilized a bit,
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00:04:09but certainly we're not making higher highs for the British pound.
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00:04:13Now, the price of gold had a wild day
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00:04:15yesterday, traded up to the upper channel line, ended the day lower.
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00:04:19So we are still on a sell signal here.
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00:04:21The price of silver is back on a buy signal as a Friday's close.
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00:04:24Now, silver is traditionally a lot more volatile than the price of gold.
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00:04:30The average true range for silver right now is 3.93%. Compare that to the average
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00:04:36true range of gold, which is currently 1.65%.
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00:04:39So you expect to see a lot more volatility
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00:04:43in the price of silver than you would in the price of gold.
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00:04:46That is the normal activity.
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00:04:48If those reverse for some particular
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00:04:50reason, then you know that hell is about to freeze over.
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00:04:54Looking at bonds, bonds made a new low yesterday.
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00:04:58Bond yields made a new high.
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00:05:00So that story has not changed.
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00:05:03Then we've got the energy sector.
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00:05:04We've got crude oil trading lower yesterday.
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00:05:07We're still on a cell signal here
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00:05:09that would change on Tuesday with a close above 86.92.
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00:05:13Natural gas.
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00:05:14Are we putting in the bottom here?
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00:05:16Well, we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:05:18We need to close above 6.84 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal for natural gas.
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00:05:23Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:26Not expecting a lot out of the market on Tuesday.
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00:05:30We are getting a little overbought on A
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00:05:32Short Term basis but haven't got There yet.
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00:05:35You can see that it's really the Dow
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00:05:37that is pushing the market higher, not the rest of the major indices.
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00:05:41And that is something to be concerned about.
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00:05:44Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:05:46Next time you'll hear my voice is
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00:05:47on Wednesday morning music you.