Canadian Stock Market Outlook 02012030

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to

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Thursday morning, the first trading day of February.

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My name is Stephen Whiteside from theuptrend.

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com.

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In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures are above fair value.

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Commodities are mixed with gold, lower,

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while crude oil is higher in the pre-market on Thursday morning.

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Now, seeing the market to trade up in the

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pre-market on the first trading day of the month is not unusual.

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Of course, we've got that automatic money

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hitting the market, and traders don't usually like to trade against that.

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Now, yesterday was a Fed day, and all we really know about Fed days is we expect

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volatility to expand after 2:00 PM, and that's certainly what happened yesterday.

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Now, yesterday started off as an

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interesting day because the market actually gapped lower.

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This is an intraday chart of the Nasdaq 100.

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Then you can see once the Fed announcement came out, the market got bullish.

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Then once the Fed chairman started to speak, the market got very bearish and

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closed at the low of the day, taking out the low from the early morning session.

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So that is a bearish sign, and it equated into a sell signal for the Nasdaq 100.

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Now, there's Alphabet, which gapped lower.

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That's what started things off in the morning.

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By the end of the day, Amazon was back on

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a sell signal, joining Apple already on a sell signal.

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Microsoft came down hard yesterday, landed

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right at the lower channel line, so a close below 397.01 would give us a sell

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signal on Thursday, and then that would join Tesla already on a sell signal.

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Still trading below last week's low,

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and we'll have to see if that can continue to hold on Thursday.

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Taking a look at the biggest loser on the Nasdaq 100 yesterday, it was Lululemon

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already on a sell signal, so no change in trend there.

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The biggest losing sector in North America on Wednesday was the regional bank sector.

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There's a regional bank in New York which

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is having some trouble at the moment, and that put downward pressure on that sector.

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Now, with the Nasdaq 100 back on a sell signal, we also have a sell signal for the

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2X Bull ETF and a new buy signal for the 2X Bear ETF.

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Now, technology stocks have been in a huge

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uptrend, and Any of the buy signals for the Bear ETF have not lasted very long.

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That could happen again, but we can't tell

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the future, so you still have to take the trade.

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Yes, the major uptrend in US technology stocks is still there.

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That has not broken, but this is a short

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term chart, and we're trying to react to the market on a short term basis.

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Looking at the Canadian stock market for

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the month of January, it was up just under a third of a %.

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At the same time, the venture exchange ended the month down just under half a %.

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If you haven't heard me say this before,

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the market is a lot more fun when the Venture Exchange

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is moving higher, and unfortunately, that's not the case so far in 2024.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, we were down just under 1% yesterday, so

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looking for a close on Thursday below 32. 03. With the futures trading up in the

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pre-market this morning, so far, it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

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Now, yesterday, the Canadian market was

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down across the board, and the biggest loser was Health Care.

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Of all these sectors, health care is probably the most irrelevant.

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It's only a handful of stocks.

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There's the health care index making a new low for 2024.

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It was led lower yesterday by Tilray, making a new closing low for as well.

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Now, looking at the IT sector, technology stocks were down 1.19% on the day, still

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trading and closing above the upper channel line.

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We certainly didn't get as hit hard as US tech stocks did.

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A lot of the Canadian ETFs that have a

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global view of technology stocks, including the TD Global Technology Leaders

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ETF, are back on sell signals as of Wednesday's close.

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Then looking at financials.

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Financials did pull yesterday.

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We saw a weakness in US financials, and we were down 1.1% on the day.

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Looking for a close on Thursday below 47. 55 to give us a sell signal for that ETF.

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Moving on to the world of commodities.

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We did have crude oil down a $1.97 yesterday.

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It's up 65 cents in the pre-market this morning.

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Natural gas was up yesterday.

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It's down slightly in the pre-market this morning.

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Energy stocks had an inside day on Wednesday.

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Then looking at gold, gold was up over $16 yesterday.

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It's down over $17 in the pre-market.

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Now, that is a buy signal.

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If I was waiting to buy gold, I would sit

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on my hands this morning and wait for the next close above the upper chain line when

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I see that the commodity is down more than it was up yesterday.

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There's no reason to take a buy signal on Thursday morning.

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Silver was down 56 cents yesterday.

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It's down another 36 cents in the pre-market.

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We may be heading towards a sell signal for silver.

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Gold stocks are still on a sell signal.

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No change in trend as of Wednesday's close.

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Let's finish off this morning's presentation, taking a look at the TSX

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most actives from Wednesday's trading action.

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Embridge made a new low for 2024

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yesterday, while Manulife made a new high for 2024 on Wednesday.

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We saw the TD Bank pulled back all the way down to the lower channel line, so it

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closed below $81.46 would give us a sell signal on Thursday.

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Inside day for next Nexgen.

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Then we've got the Bank of Montreal back on a sell signal as of Wednesday's close.

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Fairly quiet trading yesterday for Bitfarm, traded back in the channel,

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closing slightly higher on the day, just by a penny.

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We're looking for a close below $2.89 on Thursday for Bitfarm.

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Inside day for the Bank in Nova Scotia on Wednesday, still on a buy signal.

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Then we've got Denison Mines trading above

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the upper channel line, still on a buy signal here.

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No joy for the Royal Bank.

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The Royal Bank is still on a sell signal.

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That's hard to believe that we've traded sideways for this length of time.

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Then looking at Cenovus, a quiet trading

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on Wednesday inside day, still on a buy signal.

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No joy for Sprott.

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Sprott Uranium, we're looking for a close on Thursday above

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$31.72. Then the first gold stock to come up on the most active list was B2Gold, and

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it closed lower on the day, even though the price of gold It closed higher.

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It was down three cents, still on a sell signal.

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That would change on Thursday with a close above $3.88. From what we're seeing in the

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pre-market this morning, we're not expecting that to happen.

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Now, TELUS is back on a sell signal, and we had that big It's not up in the telcos

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recently, but TELUS is back on a sell signal.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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So far, it looks like we're going to see some buying at the open on Thursday

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morning, but we may see some selling in the gold sector on Thursday.

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Have a great day.

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And next time you'll hear my voice is on

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Friday morning, and at that time, we'll take a closer look at the US stock market.

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