Morning Market Outlook 01152024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from
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theuptrend.com. Well, in the pre market, things are fairly quiet.
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Stock index futures and crude oil are
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trading below fair value, while gold is trading higher.
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Now, US markets are closed.
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There is electronic pre market trading, but the markets are closed today, which
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means Canadian markets are going to be very thinly traded.
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So I wouldn't react too much to anything that happened
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in the canadian market on Monday without any adult supervision from the US market.
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We will post canadian charts tonight.
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But again, I wouldn't overreact to
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anything that happens in the canadian market on Monday.
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Now, starting off looking at the VIX, when we look at the weekly VIX chart, we're
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still on a sell signal here that's supportive for higher stock prices.
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Things would change this coming Friday if the VIX were to close above 15.13. Then
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looking at a daily chart of the VIX, we want to remain short term bullish on the
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market unless the VIX closes above 13.63 on Tuesday.
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Next up, let's take a look at the winners and losers from last week.
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And the best performing sector in North America was canadian technology stocks.
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And the big winner there was Aritzia, followed by Shopify.
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In the US, it was us technology stocks
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being led higher by Juniper Networks and then Palo Alto.
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What didn't work last week?
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Well, Canadian Marijuana stocks were down nearly 5%.
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And then we had US Oil and Gas equipment
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companies, and then we had US Regional Banks.
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Those were the biggest losers from last week's trading action.
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Let's finish off this morning's
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presentation, looking at some monthly charts.
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And typically we post the monthly right side chart every weekend.
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But today I uploaded monthly price target charts.
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Now, we don't do these often.
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The reason for that is a lot of the symbols in the database do not have enough
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data to actually create these charts, so we don't update them that often.
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But I wanted to update them this weekend
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because we do have some areas of the market hitting resistance.
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And this could be the time and place where the market starts to pull back.
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You can see, for example, the DOW is up at 37,500.
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We closed at 37,592 on Friday.
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Then looking at the S&P 500, our next target is 5000.
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So the market still may want to take us up to that level.
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You can see the Nasdaq Composite is at 15,000 on Friday.
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We closed at 14,972 and change.
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Then looking at the Russell 2000, what do you know?
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2,000 is acting as resistance and we've pulled away from that.
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So in 2024, the Russell is actually down
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3.75% after the first two weeks of trading.
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Then looking at the TSX, you can see 21,250 is our next target.
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We're trading just below that at the moment.
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Then looking at the TSX, 60, 1250 is our
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big number, and we're closing and trading just above that right now.
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So there is a possibility we could pull away and head up towards the 1375 level.
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Then looking at the Venture Exchange.
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And I want to watch this one closely,
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because it could tell us a lot about what's going to happen in 2024.
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What's happening so far in 2024 is a
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handful of sectors are pushing the markets higher, but it's not the whole market.
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And when we look at the venture exchange,
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of course, these are mostly micro cap resource stocks.
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And in 2023, 2022, they haven't done very well.
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They peaked back at the end of 2020.
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And so we are in a tight range here.
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We're finding support down at the 500
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level, and we're finding resistance at 625.
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So we've been in this range for over a year, nearly two years now, and we'll be
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looking to see if we can break out of this range.
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If we can start breaking out above 625,
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that would certainly be an indication that the rally is starting to broaden out, and
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that would be very bullish for the overall market.
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Of course, if we start breaking down below
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500, heading towards 375, that would be very bearish for the overall market.
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So we'll just have to see how things work out going forward.
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But we are up at major areas of resistance
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for the DOW and for the Nasdaq and for the Russell 2000 and for the TSX.
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And this is the time and place where the market may want to pull back.
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So we'll just have to wait and see.
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As I mentioned, a lot of the symbols in
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the database don't have enough data to produce monthly price target charts.
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Yes, they can produce other monthly charts, but not the price target charts.
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And so here's an example.
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Any of the Arc etfs do not have enough historical data, then we can look at a
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company like Apple, which certainly does, and you can see 200.
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If we break out above 200, then 225, 250 could be the next targets in 2024.
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And, of course, if we break down 150 and 5125 could certainly be areas of support.
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Then looking at Tesla, we've run up to 250.
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We've pulled back. And so far in 2024, Tesla is down nearly
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12%, and we've worked ourselves into a nice little triangle here.
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There's something for the bull, a series of higher lows.
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And there's something for the bears, a series of lower highs.
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And so we're going to be watching, the
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whole market is going to be watching to see if we break out of this triangle.
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And so far, right now, it looks like we're
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going to break down below the uptrend line.
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And if that happens, of course, that's bearish for the market.
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Looking for support at 187. 50.
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If that breaks, then we're looking for support at 125.
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And you can see at the end of 2022.
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So a little over a year ago, we were trading down below 125.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Again, us markets are closed.
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Expecting a very quiet day in the canadian markets.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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