Stock Market Timing Television - 05302023

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Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stphen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index

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futures are mixed, but once again, it's the Nasdaq leading the market higher, S&P

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500 following behind while the DOW is slightly lower and the TSX is also

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slightly lower in the premarket on Tuesday morning.

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Well, yesterday the Canadian market was open.

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I didn't post any charts or anything.

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I made these by hand this morning.

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I don't care what happens in the Canadian market when the US market is closed.

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There's no adult supervision and it's usually very thinly traded.

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So I'm not going to make any decisions

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based on anything that happened in the Canadian market on Monday.

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The TSX closed up 47 points.

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The TSX 60 closed up $2.13. The TSX 60 is

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actually trading down $1.30 in the premarket this morning.

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Technically on Bay Street, when the US markets are closed, it's

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usually a golf day, and it was certainly a golf day yesterday.

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If you look at the volume for the ishares

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for the TSX 60, you can see last week they were up around 4 million shares a day.

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Yesterday was 177,000.

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Usually I tell people you're going to see 40 %, 50 % reduction in volume.

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Yesterday was much worse than what I would usually expect.

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Again, I don't make any decisions based on

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anything that happened in the Canadian market when the US market is closed.

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Now, we are coming up to month end.

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That's usually bullish for the market.

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If the market is not in a bullish mood, it

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will at least dampen some of the negative pressure on the market.

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Now, seasonally, we've looked at this

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chart a few times, but coming into June is usually bullish.

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We usually get a top the first week in June and then a

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pullback, and off that pullback, you get the summer rally.

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That's historically what happens on average.

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Of course, average doesn't mean exactly

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what's going to happen, but that's what the market is expecting to happen.

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Now, one thing that could throw the

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seasonalities off this year is the debt ceiling debate.

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Yes, they have made some progress, but they haven't got it through Congress just

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yet, so we'll have to wait and see how the market reacts to whatever happens next.

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Of course, this morning is still all about

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NVIDIA, which is popped in the premarket this morning.

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It's trading up over $400 and taking a

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bunch of the other AI stocks and related companies with it.

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I thought I'd throw in a life lesson this morning.

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I've always told people to follow the money and ignore the news.

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One topic that I've been following closely is what's going on in Argentina.

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I have some previous employees who live in Argentina.

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They are Argentinian

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and I'm in contact with them all the time, and they're having a hell of a time.

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You can see the headline on this

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particular video, Argentina on the brink of collapse as inflation hits 109 %,

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interest rates are up near 100 %, it's pretty ugly down there.

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And so when

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you're reading the news or listening to the news and hearing what's going on, you

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would automatically, I think, assume that the stock market would not be doing well,

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but the stock market is actually hitting all time highs at the moment.

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So don't try to line up the news with what is actually going on in the market, it's

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more important to follow what's going on in the market and not the news.

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Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal, so there's still some tension in the market

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and outside of NVIDIA and the big cap tech stocks.

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The rest of the market isn't doing that well at the moment.

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Tuesday, we're looking for a close on the VIX below 17.21 to

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tell us the market wants to get more bullish going into month end.

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Now, the US dollar index is still in an uptrend.

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We know that that can be negative for gold and negative for the stock market.

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And for some of the stock market, it certainly is.

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Bonds are still on a sell signal.

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I watched the 30 year bond, the futures contract.

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A lot of the market watches the TLT or in Canada, the XBB.

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Now, of course, falling bond prices puts upward pressure on bond yields, and that,

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of course, helps the Fed accomplish what they want to get done.

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Then looking at crude oil, we had an inside day on Friday, still on a buy

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signal unlike natural gas, which has rolled over back on a sell signal.

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Then looking at energy stocks, just trading water here both

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in Canada and the US, we're both still on buy signals but not going anywhere.

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Then the Nasdaq made a new high on Friday.

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We saw chip stocks continue to move higher on Friday, and you can see we're up

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trading back at the highs that we saw back in February.

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Everybody's watching NVIDIA.

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I watch AMD.

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It's a stock that I trade, either long or short.

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Then looking at the rest of the market, looking at midcaps and the iShares Russell

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2000 or the iShares Microcap for those little stocks.

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They're not going anywhere right now.

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It's still all about the big cap tech stocks.

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You can see that in the regional banks,

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they're just treading water here on a buy signal.

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If we can move up 10, 12 % from here, we'd get up into the Flypaper channel.

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To get there, we'd have to get through the 50 day moving average.

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And so far, we have not been able to do that.

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That is also true for the big banks in the US.

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It's also true for the broker dealers and the insurance company.

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So nothing really going on in the rest of the market.

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Then looking at Canadian financials, we're on a sell signal.

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We moved up on Friday, we moved up a little yesterday.

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That's also true for Canadian banks, still on a sell signal here.

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Making a new low on Thursday, and there's

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the Royal Bank making a new low on Thursday.

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This is a pretty ugly chart.

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You can see we recently put in a lower

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high, and now we're putting in a lower low.

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We should have found support at the 124

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level, which acted as support previously, but unfortunately it broke down this time.

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So that's a pretty negative chart for the biggest bank in Canada, and that might not

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be a good sign for the markets going forward.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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We do have the Nasdaq leading the markets higher this morning.

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We've got the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 up

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nicely while the DAO and the TSX are trading slightly lower on Tuesday morning.

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For the Canadian market, we've got crude

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oil and natural gas down slightly while gold is up $16 this morning.

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So we may see some money go back into the mining sector on Tuesday.

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Now, I've been trying to get people to donate blood for the last

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10 years, and today we're going to start rewarding people for doing so.

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So check your email later today and you'll

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see the new program that we're rolling out to thank people for those people who've

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taken up the cause and have donated blood over the last 10 years.

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Again, that's all for this morning's presentation.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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