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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stphen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:06In the premarket this morning, stock index
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00:00:08futures are mixed, but once again, it's the Nasdaq leading the market higher, S&P
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00:00:13500 following behind while the DOW is slightly lower and the TSX is also
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00:00:19slightly lower in the premarket on Tuesday morning.
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00:00:23Well, yesterday the Canadian market was open.
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00:00:25I didn't post any charts or anything.
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00:00:27I made these by hand this morning.
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00:00:29I don't care what happens in the Canadian market when the US market is closed.
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00:00:34There's no adult supervision and it's usually very thinly traded.
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00:00:39So I'm not going to make any decisions
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00:00:41based on anything that happened in the Canadian market on Monday.
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00:00:44The TSX closed up 47 points.
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00:00:47The TSX 60 closed up $2.13. The TSX 60 is
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00:00:51actually trading down $1.30 in the premarket this morning.
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00:00:55Technically on Bay Street, when the US markets are closed, it's
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00:00:59usually a golf day, and it was certainly a golf day yesterday.
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00:01:04If you look at the volume for the ishares
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00:01:06for the TSX 60, you can see last week they were up around 4 million shares a day.
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00:01:11Yesterday was 177,000.
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00:01:14Usually I tell people you're going to see 40 %, 50 % reduction in volume.
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00:01:19Yesterday was much worse than what I would usually expect.
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00:01:23Again, I don't make any decisions based on
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00:01:25anything that happened in the Canadian market when the US market is closed.
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00:01:30Now, we are coming up to month end.
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00:01:32That's usually bullish for the market.
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00:01:34If the market is not in a bullish mood, it
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00:01:36will at least dampen some of the negative pressure on the market.
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00:01:41Now, seasonally, we've looked at this
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00:01:43chart a few times, but coming into June is usually bullish.
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00:01:47We usually get a top the first week in June and then a
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00:01:51pullback, and off that pullback, you get the summer rally.
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00:01:55That's historically what happens on average.
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00:01:59Of course, average doesn't mean exactly
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00:02:01what's going to happen, but that's what the market is expecting to happen.
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00:02:06Now, one thing that could throw the
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00:02:08seasonalities off this year is the debt ceiling debate.
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00:02:12Yes, they have made some progress, but they haven't got it through Congress just
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00:02:16yet, so we'll have to wait and see how the market reacts to whatever happens next.
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00:02:21Of course, this morning is still all about
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00:02:23NVIDIA, which is popped in the premarket this morning.
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00:02:26It's trading up over $400 and taking a
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00:02:29bunch of the other AI stocks and related companies with it.
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00:02:34I thought I'd throw in a life lesson this morning.
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00:02:37I've always told people to follow the money and ignore the news.
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00:02:41One topic that I've been following closely is what's going on in Argentina.
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00:02:45I have some previous employees who live in Argentina.
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00:02:49They are Argentinian
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00:02:50and I'm in contact with them all the time, and they're having a hell of a time.
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00:02:56You can see the headline on this
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00:02:58particular video, Argentina on the brink of collapse as inflation hits 109 %,
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00:03:02interest rates are up near 100 %, it's pretty ugly down there.
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00:03:07And so when
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00:03:09you're reading the news or listening to the news and hearing what's going on, you
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00:03:14would automatically, I think, assume that the stock market would not be doing well,
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00:03:20but the stock market is actually hitting all time highs at the moment.
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00:03:25So don't try to line up the news with what is actually going on in the market, it's
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00:03:30more important to follow what's going on in the market and not the news.
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00:03:36Now, the VIX is still on a buy signal, so there's still some tension in the market
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00:03:40and outside of NVIDIA and the big cap tech stocks.
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00:03:45The rest of the market isn't doing that well at the moment.
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00:03:48Tuesday, we're looking for a close on the VIX below 17.21 to
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00:03:53tell us the market wants to get more bullish going into month end.
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00:03:57Now, the US dollar index is still in an uptrend.
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00:03:59We know that that can be negative for gold and negative for the stock market.
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00:04:03And for some of the stock market, it certainly is.
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00:04:07Bonds are still on a sell signal.
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00:04:08I watched the 30 year bond, the futures contract.
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00:04:12A lot of the market watches the TLT or in Canada, the XBB.
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00:04:16Now, of course, falling bond prices puts upward pressure on bond yields, and that,
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00:04:21of course, helps the Fed accomplish what they want to get done.
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00:04:25Then looking at crude oil, we had an inside day on Friday, still on a buy
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00:04:29signal unlike natural gas, which has rolled over back on a sell signal.
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00:04:34Then looking at energy stocks, just trading water here both
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00:04:38in Canada and the US, we're both still on buy signals but not going anywhere.
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00:04:44Then the Nasdaq made a new high on Friday.
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00:04:47We saw chip stocks continue to move higher on Friday, and you can see we're up
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00:04:52trading back at the highs that we saw back in February.
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00:04:56Everybody's watching NVIDIA.
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00:04:58I watch AMD.
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00:04:59It's a stock that I trade, either long or short.
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00:05:03Then looking at the rest of the market, looking at midcaps and the iShares Russell
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00:05:092000 or the iShares Microcap for those little stocks.
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00:05:13They're not going anywhere right now.
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00:05:15It's still all about the big cap tech stocks.
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00:05:18You can see that in the regional banks,
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00:05:20they're just treading water here on a buy signal.
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00:05:23If we can move up 10, 12 % from here, we'd get up into the Flypaper channel.
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00:05:28To get there, we'd have to get through the 50 day moving average.
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00:05:31And so far, we have not been able to do that.
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00:05:34That is also true for the big banks in the US.
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00:05:37It's also true for the broker dealers and the insurance company.
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00:05:42So nothing really going on in the rest of the market.
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00:05:45Then looking at Canadian financials, we're on a sell signal.
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00:05:49We moved up on Friday, we moved up a little yesterday.
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00:05:52That's also true for Canadian banks, still on a sell signal here.
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00:05:56Making a new low on Thursday, and there's
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00:05:59the Royal Bank making a new low on Thursday.
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00:06:02This is a pretty ugly chart.
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00:06:03You can see we recently put in a lower
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00:06:05high, and now we're putting in a lower low.
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00:06:08We should have found support at the 124
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00:06:10level, which acted as support previously, but unfortunately it broke down this time.
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00:06:15So that's a pretty negative chart for the biggest bank in Canada, and that might not
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00:06:21be a good sign for the markets going forward.
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00:06:24Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:06:27We do have the Nasdaq leading the markets higher this morning.
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00:06:31We've got the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 up
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00:06:33nicely while the DAO and the TSX are trading slightly lower on Tuesday morning.
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00:06:38For the Canadian market, we've got crude
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00:06:40oil and natural gas down slightly while gold is up $16 this morning.
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00:06:45So we may see some money go back into the mining sector on Tuesday.
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00:06:50Now, I've been trying to get people to donate blood for the last
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00:06:5310 years, and today we're going to start rewarding people for doing so.
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00:06:59So check your email later today and you'll
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00:07:03see the new program that we're rolling out to thank people for those people who've
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00:07:07taken up the cause and have donated blood over the last 10 years.
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00:07:13Again, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:15Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.