Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20221127
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  • 00:00:00
    Hello everyone, its Stephen Whiteside here
  • 00:00:02
    from TheUpTrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
  • 00:00:06
    Well let's start off with the good news.
  • 00:00:08
    The good news is it was a pretty good week.
  • 00:00:10
    Any time you're coming into a long weekend it usually has a bullish bias to it.
  • 00:00:15
    Friday we saw US markets open for half day, very quiet trading.
  • 00:00:20
    The SPY volume for Friday was 30 million
  • 00:00:23
    and change, the previous Friday was 92 million and change.
  • 00:00:26
    So you can see the dramatic drop in volume on Friday.
  • 00:00:30
    So we're also coming up to the end of the month that also has a bullish bias to it.
  • 00:00:34
    And I think after month end that's where
  • 00:00:37
    things should probably stop and we should start to head lower from there.
  • 00:00:41
    Probably not on the first trading day of December but certainly not expecting the
  • 00:00:47
    bullish momentum to continue into December at this time.
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    Now let's move on and take a look at the VIX.
  • 00:00:53
    The VIX was weaker again, which is
  • 00:00:56
    supported for higher stock prices, down another 11% and change.
  • 00:01:00
    Things would change this week if the VIX closed above 29.13 this coming Friday.
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    Looking at the daily charts you can see very quiet trading on Friday.
  • 00:01:10
    The VIX had an inside day.
  • 00:01:11
    We're looking for a close on Monday above $24.10. If that doesn't happen of course
  • 00:01:17
    that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
  • 00:01:21
    Now looking at the daily panic zone chart for the VIX and we're mostly going to use
  • 00:01:25
    weekly charts in this presentation, but we will flag when we show daily charts.
  • 00:01:30
    You can see we're currently ranked as zero.
  • 00:01:32
    We're now at the bottom of the panic zones.
  • 00:01:34
    The pressure zone has formed.
  • 00:01:35
    This is the time and place we look for a reversal.
  • 00:01:38
    Now we've been following the Dow closely for the last month or so.
  • 00:01:42
    I've talked more about the Dow in the last month than I have in the last 22 years.
  • 00:01:46
    But there's the Dow up at the top of the Panic Zones.
  • 00:01:49
    It hit our next price target on Friday.
  • 00:01:52
    Our next price target was 343. 75.
  • 00:01:55
    We got as high as 343. 80.
  • 00:01:57
    So just $0.05 above our target.
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    Now not only is this a daily target, but
  • 00:02:02
    it is also a weekly target, which makes it much more significant.
  • 00:02:06
    And as you can see it held us in check back in the summer.
  • 00:02:10
    Now looking at the eyeshares for the TSX 60, it did something similar on Friday.
  • 00:02:15
    It also hit our next price target which is 31.
  • 00:02:17
    25.
  • 00:02:18
    So in both cases we've broken out above the summer high, but just barely.
  • 00:02:23
    It's not a major or significant breakout at all.
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    Now the high for the I shares for the TSX 60 on Friday was 31.
  • 00:02:30
    31, while our price target is at 31. 25.
  • 00:02:34
    And it is also a significant target
  • 00:02:36
    because not only is it a daily, but it's also a weekly target.
  • 00:02:39
    And that weekly target held us in check back in the summer.
  • 00:02:43
    Now, I think the stock market is about to top here.
  • 00:02:46
    Of course, there's no evidence that that change has started.
  • 00:02:51
    So what we're looking at is possibilities,
  • 00:02:54
    and we certainly don't have any triggers to take any action.
  • 00:02:58
    The only trigger that you have so far is if you were trading the Dow diamonds or if
  • 00:03:02
    you were trading the Ishares for the TSX 60.
  • 00:03:05
    You had orders which got filled on Friday.
  • 00:03:07
    So congratulations.
  • 00:03:08
    You've taken some money off the table, but
  • 00:03:11
    you have no reason to actually completely liquidate a position at this time.
  • 00:03:17
    Now, this is still a risk off rally, and
  • 00:03:19
    that hasn't changed this week, and that's rather unfortunate.
  • 00:03:23
    Being in a risk off rally is very
  • 00:03:25
    uncomfortable because more and more money is going into fewer and fewer stocks, and
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    that's why you have the market being let higher by a stock like McDonald's and a
  • 00:03:35
    stock like Tesla is going in the exact opposite direction.
  • 00:03:39
    So people with deeper pockets than you and I and more resources than you and I are
  • 00:03:44
    staying away from anything technology related right now.
  • 00:03:48
    And it doesn't really matter what area of technology.
  • 00:03:50
    There's one area that's working.
  • 00:03:52
    But if we look at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, we are still on a Weekly Sell signal.
  • 00:03:57
    No change for any of the ARK ETFs.
  • 00:03:59
    Whether you're looking at fintech, you're looking at Genomics, you're looking at the
  • 00:04:03
    ARK Innovation ETF itself, which is heavily weighted in Tesla.
  • 00:04:07
    Then you've got the Ark Industrials, you've got Internet, and you've got space.
  • 00:04:12
    Money is not going into any of those areas
  • 00:04:14
    of the market right now, and it's certainly not going into social media.
  • 00:04:19
    Now, let me pose a question to you.
  • 00:04:21
    How healthy do you think the market is if investors are only willing to put money
  • 00:04:26
    into the stocks of yesterday and ignore the stocks of tomorrow?
  • 00:04:30
    That tells me the market's not in a very healthy position at this time.
  • 00:04:35
    Of course, things could change over time.
  • 00:04:37
    They just didn't change this week.
  • 00:04:40
    Now, one area that the bulls can hang
  • 00:04:42
    their hat on is the Chip Sector, which did pop a couple of weeks ago.
  • 00:04:46
    But you can see that there's been no upward momentum since then.
  • 00:04:49
    Even on the back of the big announcement that Warren Buffett took a big position in
  • 00:04:55
    Taiwan Semiconductor, you can see that popped and then treaded water this week.
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    Now, there is one symbol you're going to watch closely this week.
  • 00:05:02
    This could be the make or break symbol for the week, and that's the spider ETF.
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    We're currently ranked at nine, so we're not overly overbought at the moment.
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    We're up in the overbought area, but we could still be ranked at ten.
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    We could still certainly move higher from here.
  • 00:05:17
    We are stuck at the 200 day moving average.
  • 00:05:19
    That seems to be an area of resistance right now.
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    And just above that is our next price target.
  • 00:05:25
    Now 406.25 is not only a weekly, but it's a daily target.
  • 00:05:28
    So when they match up like that, that is a more significant line in the sand.
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    And right now when we look up to the
  • 00:05:35
    406.25 to get there, we start to move into an open gap.
  • 00:05:39
    Of course, an open gap is a hole.
  • 00:05:42
    It's a big pothole in the road that investors remember.
  • 00:05:46
    Anybody who was buying up there in September certainly remembers that day.
  • 00:05:51
    And the market has a memory.
  • 00:05:52
    And right now the bottom of that open gap
  • 00:05:55
    is at 403.10. We got as high as 402.93, I believe on the week.
  • 00:06:01
    On Friday.
  • 00:06:01
    It was 402.91. So less than $0.20 away from the bottom of that gap.
  • 00:06:07
    So far you can see the fact that we haven't been able to run up and run into
  • 00:06:10
    the gap that at the bottom of the gap is acting as resistance.
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    Then if we can break through the bottom of
  • 00:06:15
    the gap, 406.25, and then the top of the gap is 408.46.
  • 00:06:20
    So there's some clustering there, there's some area of resistance that the market
  • 00:06:27
    would need to get up and over and I'm not sure it's going to be able to do that.
  • 00:06:31
    Now, looking down, if you're watching the
  • 00:06:33
    SPY ETF on Monday, we need to close below 392.
  • 00:06:36
    34 to give us a sell signal.
  • 00:06:38
    And of course, if that doesn't happen,
  • 00:06:40
    that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
  • 00:06:43
    Now these next couple of charts aren't designed to scare anyone because we will
  • 00:06:48
    certainly react to whatever the market gives us going forward.
  • 00:06:52
    But I've looked at this chart several
  • 00:06:55
    times over the past month and what this particular piece of software from Timing
  • 00:07:00
    Solutions gives us is a similarity engine and what that engine does.
  • 00:07:05
    And in this case, we're analyzing the SPY ETF in this particular chart.
  • 00:07:09
    I can't show the whole thing on the screen, but it goes back to when the
  • 00:07:14
    Spider ETF actually went public back in the this particular engine will go and
  • 00:07:21
    take a snapshot of the current market situation and see if there's any times in
  • 00:07:25
    history when the market looked like this before.
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    And the closest match that we could come to was back in 2000 to 2002.
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    That is the closest match with the current market situation.
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    And the reason I'm showing you this is not
  • 00:07:43
    to scare you, but just to let you know that from where we are right now, we could
  • 00:07:47
    still go much further next year to the downside than where we are right now.
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    That is also true for the Nasdaq 100.
  • 00:07:54
    And again, the similarity engine went back in time and said, hey, where are we right
  • 00:07:59
    now compared to where we've been in the past?
  • 00:08:02
    And it matches us up with what happened in 2000 to 2002.
  • 00:08:06
    And again, the market can go much lower from where we are right now.
  • 00:08:11
    Now, right now, we're still on a weekly sell signal for the Nasdaq.
  • 00:08:15
    So if the Nasdaq wanted to go much lower
  • 00:08:17
    from here, we would be on the right side of that market position.
  • 00:08:22
    Now, here's the last set of charts I want to use to look at the stock market, and
  • 00:08:26
    it's one that pretty well everybody can understand.
  • 00:08:29
    This particular chart is looking at the
  • 00:08:31
    percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average.
  • 00:08:35
    Back in the summer, we used a similar chart.
  • 00:08:39
    We looked at a percentage of stocks currently trading above their five day
  • 00:08:42
    moving average because we were looking at a smaller term time frame.
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    Now we're looking at the bigger time frame.
  • 00:08:48
    So this is a percentage of stocks
  • 00:08:50
    currently trading above the 50 day moving average.
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    Now, when you get up to these levels, you're getting close to 100%.
  • 00:08:55
    And when a market gets up to 100%, that rarely happens.
  • 00:09:00
    But when you get up to that range, that's
  • 00:09:02
    the time and place when the market usually turns around.
  • 00:09:05
    I don't know what the catalyst is going to be for that, but if we go back in time,
  • 00:09:09
    the peaks on this particular chart match up with the peaks in the stock market.
  • 00:09:13
    Whether it's the high from August, the
  • 00:09:16
    high from late May, early June, or the high from late March, early April,
  • 00:09:21
    anytime that particular indicator was up near the top of the range, that's the time
  • 00:09:28
    and place where the market started reverse.
  • 00:09:30
    Now, the last time that we saw a high like this was back in August.
  • 00:09:33
    If we look at the Canadian chart and this is for a longer time frame, but this is
  • 00:09:38
    the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average.
  • 00:09:41
    We have not been this high in a few years.
  • 00:09:44
    So the Canadian market is very, very overbought at the present time.
  • 00:09:49
    Now, being overbought does not guarantee
  • 00:09:51
    that the market completely reverses and heads sharply lower.
  • 00:09:55
    An overbought condition can be alleviated by just treading water.
  • 00:09:59
    We could tread water for a couple of weeks, and the percentage of stocks
  • 00:10:03
    trading by the 50 day moving average could come down.
  • 00:10:06
    And that does not mean the market is going to crash.
  • 00:10:08
    But it certainly tells me that the S&P 500 trading up at its 200 day moving average
  • 00:10:13
    may be as high as we can go at the present time.
  • 00:10:18
    Now, as I mentioned for this particular chart, which is a longer term time frame
  • 00:10:21
    than the previous chart, the peaks that we see on this chart match
  • 00:10:25
    up with all the peaks on the TSX that we've seen over the past couple of years.
  • 00:10:31
    Let's finish off taking a look at the weekly commodity prices.
  • 00:10:34
    And last week we had big bearish reversal
  • 00:10:36
    signals, but we didn't see fall through to the downside.
  • 00:10:38
    For most of the charts, copper was down slightly.
  • 00:10:41
    That's not a major indicator that copper
  • 00:10:45
    is going to continue to go lower from here.
  • 00:10:46
    It's still on a weekly buy signal.
  • 00:10:49
    Gold actually closed higher on the week by just $3, but that is better than where it
  • 00:10:53
    was during the week when it dipped right into the channel.
  • 00:10:56
    And Silver also dipped into the channel
  • 00:10:58
    too, and it was higher on the week, up 2.31 percent.
  • 00:11:03
    So some of those bearish reversal signals
  • 00:11:05
    that we saw last week didn't really see any fall through to the downside.
  • 00:11:10
    Now on the other hand, energy starting off
  • 00:11:13
    with crude oil was down nearly 5% on the week, nearly touching the $75 level.
  • 00:11:20
    And of course, $75 is our big line in the sand.
  • 00:11:23
    If you look at a daily chart below 75, 68.
  • 00:11:26
    75 would be our next target to the downside.
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    If we start breaking through 75.
  • 00:11:31
    Now, looking at the weekly panic zone
  • 00:11:33
    chart, you can see that we are currently projecting down to the $50 level.
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    Of course, to get there, we've got to break through quite a bit of support.
  • 00:11:41
    Now natural gas on the other hand, had another wild week, closing up 6.27%,
  • 00:11:46
    trading above the upper channel line, but closing back in the middle of the channel.
  • 00:11:50
    So another wild week.
  • 00:11:51
    It was positive, but still no weekly buy signal for natural gas.
  • 00:11:56
    And you can see for natural gas, the pros
  • 00:11:58
    do not look like they want to take control at the present time.
  • 00:12:02
    Okay folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
  • 00:12:05
    We came into a long weekend.
  • 00:12:07
    Things are still looking pretty bullish.
  • 00:12:09
    We should expect to go into month end looking pretty bullish.
  • 00:12:13
    And then beyond that, I wouldn't be
  • 00:12:14
    surprised if we saw some selling in the month of December.
  • 00:12:18
    Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
  • 00:12:20
    The next time you will hear my voice
  • 00:12:21
    is on Tuesday morning video you.

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