Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20221127

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Hello everyone, its Stephen Whiteside here

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from TheUpTrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.

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Well let's start off with the good news.

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The good news is it was a pretty good week.

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Any time you're coming into a long weekend it usually has a bullish bias to it.

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Friday we saw US markets open for half day, very quiet trading.

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The SPY volume for Friday was 30 million

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and change, the previous Friday was 92 million and change.

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So you can see the dramatic drop in volume on Friday.

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So we're also coming up to the end of the month that also has a bullish bias to it.

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And I think after month end that's where

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things should probably stop and we should start to head lower from there.

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Probably not on the first trading day of December but certainly not expecting the

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bullish momentum to continue into December at this time.

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Now let's move on and take a look at the VIX.

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The VIX was weaker again, which is

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supported for higher stock prices, down another 11% and change.

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Things would change this week if the VIX closed above 29.13 this coming Friday.

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Looking at the daily charts you can see very quiet trading on Friday.

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The VIX had an inside day.

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We're looking for a close on Monday above $24.10. If that doesn't happen of course

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that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Now looking at the daily panic zone chart for the VIX and we're mostly going to use

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weekly charts in this presentation, but we will flag when we show daily charts.

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You can see we're currently ranked as zero.

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We're now at the bottom of the panic zones.

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The pressure zone has formed.

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This is the time and place we look for a reversal.

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Now we've been following the Dow closely for the last month or so.

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I've talked more about the Dow in the last month than I have in the last 22 years.

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But there's the Dow up at the top of the Panic Zones.

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It hit our next price target on Friday.

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Our next price target was 343. 75.

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We got as high as 343. 80.

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So just $0.05 above our target.

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Now not only is this a daily target, but

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it is also a weekly target, which makes it much more significant.

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And as you can see it held us in check back in the summer.

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Now looking at the eyeshares for the TSX 60, it did something similar on Friday.

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It also hit our next price target which is 31.

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25.

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So in both cases we've broken out above the summer high, but just barely.

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It's not a major or significant breakout at all.

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Now the high for the I shares for the TSX 60 on Friday was 31.

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31, while our price target is at 31. 25.

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And it is also a significant target

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because not only is it a daily, but it's also a weekly target.

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And that weekly target held us in check back in the summer.

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Now, I think the stock market is about to top here.

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Of course, there's no evidence that that change has started.

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So what we're looking at is possibilities,

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and we certainly don't have any triggers to take any action.

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The only trigger that you have so far is if you were trading the Dow diamonds or if

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you were trading the Ishares for the TSX 60.

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You had orders which got filled on Friday.

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So congratulations.

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You've taken some money off the table, but

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you have no reason to actually completely liquidate a position at this time.

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Now, this is still a risk off rally, and

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that hasn't changed this week, and that's rather unfortunate.

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Being in a risk off rally is very

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uncomfortable because more and more money is going into fewer and fewer stocks, and

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that's why you have the market being let higher by a stock like McDonald's and a

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stock like Tesla is going in the exact opposite direction.

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So people with deeper pockets than you and I and more resources than you and I are

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staying away from anything technology related right now.

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And it doesn't really matter what area of technology.

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There's one area that's working.

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But if we look at the QQQ's for the Nasdaq 100, we are still on a Weekly Sell signal.

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No change for any of the ARK ETFs.

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Whether you're looking at fintech, you're looking at Genomics, you're looking at the

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ARK Innovation ETF itself, which is heavily weighted in Tesla.

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Then you've got the Ark Industrials, you've got Internet, and you've got space.

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Money is not going into any of those areas

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of the market right now, and it's certainly not going into social media.

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Now, let me pose a question to you.

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How healthy do you think the market is if investors are only willing to put money

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into the stocks of yesterday and ignore the stocks of tomorrow?

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That tells me the market's not in a very healthy position at this time.

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Of course, things could change over time.

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They just didn't change this week.

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Now, one area that the bulls can hang

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their hat on is the Chip Sector, which did pop a couple of weeks ago.

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But you can see that there's been no upward momentum since then.

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Even on the back of the big announcement that Warren Buffett took a big position in

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Taiwan Semiconductor, you can see that popped and then treaded water this week.

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Now, there is one symbol you're going to watch closely this week.

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This could be the make or break symbol for the week, and that's the spider ETF.

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We're currently ranked at nine, so we're not overly overbought at the moment.

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We're up in the overbought area, but we could still be ranked at ten.

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We could still certainly move higher from here.

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We are stuck at the 200 day moving average.

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That seems to be an area of resistance right now.

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And just above that is our next price target.

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Now 406.25 is not only a weekly, but it's a daily target.

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So when they match up like that, that is a more significant line in the sand.

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And right now when we look up to the

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406.25 to get there, we start to move into an open gap.

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Of course, an open gap is a hole.

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It's a big pothole in the road that investors remember.

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Anybody who was buying up there in September certainly remembers that day.

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And the market has a memory.

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And right now the bottom of that open gap

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is at 403.10. We got as high as 402.93, I believe on the week.

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On Friday.

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It was 402.91. So less than $0.20 away from the bottom of that gap.

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So far you can see the fact that we haven't been able to run up and run into

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the gap that at the bottom of the gap is acting as resistance.

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Then if we can break through the bottom of

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the gap, 406.25, and then the top of the gap is 408.46.

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So there's some clustering there, there's some area of resistance that the market

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would need to get up and over and I'm not sure it's going to be able to do that.

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Now, looking down, if you're watching the

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SPY ETF on Monday, we need to close below 392.

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34 to give us a sell signal.

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And of course, if that doesn't happen,

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that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.

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Now these next couple of charts aren't designed to scare anyone because we will

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certainly react to whatever the market gives us going forward.

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But I've looked at this chart several

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times over the past month and what this particular piece of software from Timing

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Solutions gives us is a similarity engine and what that engine does.

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And in this case, we're analyzing the SPY ETF in this particular chart.

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I can't show the whole thing on the screen, but it goes back to when the

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Spider ETF actually went public back in the this particular engine will go and

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take a snapshot of the current market situation and see if there's any times in

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history when the market looked like this before.

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And the closest match that we could come to was back in 2000 to 2002.

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That is the closest match with the current market situation.

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And the reason I'm showing you this is not

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to scare you, but just to let you know that from where we are right now, we could

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still go much further next year to the downside than where we are right now.

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That is also true for the Nasdaq 100.

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And again, the similarity engine went back in time and said, hey, where are we right

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now compared to where we've been in the past?

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And it matches us up with what happened in 2000 to 2002.

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And again, the market can go much lower from where we are right now.

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Now, right now, we're still on a weekly sell signal for the Nasdaq.

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So if the Nasdaq wanted to go much lower

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from here, we would be on the right side of that market position.

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Now, here's the last set of charts I want to use to look at the stock market, and

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it's one that pretty well everybody can understand.

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This particular chart is looking at the

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percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average.

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Back in the summer, we used a similar chart.

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We looked at a percentage of stocks currently trading above their five day

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moving average because we were looking at a smaller term time frame.

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Now we're looking at the bigger time frame.

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So this is a percentage of stocks

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currently trading above the 50 day moving average.

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Now, when you get up to these levels, you're getting close to 100%.

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And when a market gets up to 100%, that rarely happens.

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But when you get up to that range, that's

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the time and place when the market usually turns around.

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I don't know what the catalyst is going to be for that, but if we go back in time,

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the peaks on this particular chart match up with the peaks in the stock market.

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Whether it's the high from August, the

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high from late May, early June, or the high from late March, early April,

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anytime that particular indicator was up near the top of the range, that's the time

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and place where the market started reverse.

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Now, the last time that we saw a high like this was back in August.

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If we look at the Canadian chart and this is for a longer time frame, but this is

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the percentage of stocks currently trading above the 50 day moving average.

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We have not been this high in a few years.

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So the Canadian market is very, very overbought at the present time.

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Now, being overbought does not guarantee

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that the market completely reverses and heads sharply lower.

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An overbought condition can be alleviated by just treading water.

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We could tread water for a couple of weeks, and the percentage of stocks

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trading by the 50 day moving average could come down.

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And that does not mean the market is going to crash.

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But it certainly tells me that the S&P 500 trading up at its 200 day moving average

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may be as high as we can go at the present time.

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Now, as I mentioned for this particular chart, which is a longer term time frame

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than the previous chart, the peaks that we see on this chart match

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up with all the peaks on the TSX that we've seen over the past couple of years.

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Let's finish off taking a look at the weekly commodity prices.

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And last week we had big bearish reversal

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signals, but we didn't see fall through to the downside.

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For most of the charts, copper was down slightly.

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That's not a major indicator that copper

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is going to continue to go lower from here.

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It's still on a weekly buy signal.

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Gold actually closed higher on the week by just $3, but that is better than where it

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was during the week when it dipped right into the channel.

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And Silver also dipped into the channel

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too, and it was higher on the week, up 2.31 percent.

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So some of those bearish reversal signals

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that we saw last week didn't really see any fall through to the downside.

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Now on the other hand, energy starting off

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with crude oil was down nearly 5% on the week, nearly touching the $75 level.

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And of course, $75 is our big line in the sand.

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If you look at a daily chart below 75, 68.

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75 would be our next target to the downside.

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If we start breaking through 75.

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Now, looking at the weekly panic zone

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chart, you can see that we are currently projecting down to the $50 level.

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Of course, to get there, we've got to break through quite a bit of support.

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Now natural gas on the other hand, had another wild week, closing up 6.27%,

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trading above the upper channel line, but closing back in the middle of the channel.

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So another wild week.

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It was positive, but still no weekly buy signal for natural gas.

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And you can see for natural gas, the pros

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do not look like they want to take control at the present time.

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Okay folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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We came into a long weekend.

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Things are still looking pretty bullish.

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We should expect to go into month end looking pretty bullish.

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And then beyond that, I wouldn't be

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surprised if we saw some selling in the month of December.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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The next time you will hear my voice

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is on Tuesday morning video you.

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