Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 05212023

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Hello, everyone,

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and welcome to this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing, Television.

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Of course, my name is Stephen Whiteside.

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I'll be your host this weekend.

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Now, looking at the weekly charts, it

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looked like it was a fairly quiet week for the market.

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A couple of standouts, of course,

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technology stocks, especially the chips, led the markets higher.

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Otherwise volatility was very quiet and the VIX is down near long term support.

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We may not see the VIX push any lower from this point as options traders probably

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don't want to sell options for any cheaper than they're selling for right now.

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Starting off looking at a weekly chart of the VIX, we were down 1.29 % on the week.

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This coming Friday, if we were to close above$21.27, then we would go from a

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position of being long term bullish to being long term bearish on the market.

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Looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you

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can see we traded up into the channel on Friday.

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On Monday, we'd be looking for a close

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above $18 and 14 cents to give us a new daily buy signal.

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And if that were to happen, then we'd become short term bearish on the market.

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As I mentioned, we've come down to support at the 15.63 level.

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That is both daily and weekly support.

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Now, I don't think that's going to break at the present time.

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I really don't think that what's going on in the world is going to let options

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traders to sell options for less premium than they're selling for right now.

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But it could happen.

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And if it does, if we do sell you start

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breaking the recent lows, then 12.50 is our next target to the downside.

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Looking up on the VIX,

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I'd be quite concerned if the VIX started trading above the 200 day moving average.

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Of course, if the US were to default on its debt, then I certainly would expect

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the VIX to be up over the 200 day moving average.

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Looking at weekly charts, starting with the DAO Diamond, you can see we traded

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down to the lower channel during the week but did not close below it.

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We actually closed up just under a third of a %.

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Then what was the drag on the DOW this week?

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Well, it was Nike was the biggest loser on the DOW.

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Looking at the S&P 500 new high for 2023.

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Our next mathematical target is 421.88.

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Then 437.50, which is not only a weekly target, it's also a monthly target, and

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we'll take a look at that in a few minutes.

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Before we get to 437.50, we'd have to take

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out the high from last summer at 431.73. Now, what worked on the S&P 500?

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Well, the biggest winner in percentage

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terms was Co America, which was up just under 20 % on the week.

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But of course, that does not change its overall trend at all.

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Looking at the triple Qs, a new high for

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2023, we've taken up the high from a year ago and now looking to see if we can get

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up to 343.75. That's our next mathematical target to the upside.

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Now, the biggest winner on the Nasdaq this

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week was the chip maker, Marvel, up 13.31 %.

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And of course, the chip sector was the big winner this week, up 8.63 %.

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You can see that we traded up getting

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close to the upper channel line, looking for a close this coming Friday above

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196.03 to give us a buy signal for the SPDR Semicondactor ETF.

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Now looking at the Russell 2000, we're

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still trading in the channel, trading water here.

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We were up nearly 2 % on the week, still looking for a close on the IWM above

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$180.36. And as you can see, we're still trailing along the 175 level.

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We entered this level about a year ago and

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have been stuck in a range between 160, 250 at the bottom and $200 at the top.

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And if you work your way back here, you can see that a year ago we hit the 175

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level and basically haven't moved anywhere in a year.

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So at least we haven't been going down.

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But obviously it's been hard slog for

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anything but the big cap tech stocks over the last year.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, we

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dipped into the channel down a little over half a % on the week.

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Looking at what worked, Tourmaline was the big winner.

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It was up 8.47 %.

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The biggest loser was Barrick, down 7.19 % on the week.

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Just a couple more weekly charts here.

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In the US, the biggest winner in percentage terms on the week

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were the regional banks up 7.81 %, certainly no change in trend.

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And regional banks do not make up very much in the US market.

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That's why we watch the semiconductors to

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see what role they're playing in the US market.

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In the Canadian market, we saw gold stocks pull back.

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We talked about Barrick a minute ago.

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The iShares for the TSX Global Gold Index were down 4.9 % on the week.

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No weekly sell signal just yet, but lots of daily sell signals.

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And energy stocks came back, certainly no change in trend on the weekly charts.

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There are buy signals on some of the daily charts, but in the US, we're up 1.43 %.

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Now, let's finish off this weekend's

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presentation taking a look at some long term price target charts.

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Typically, if you take a look at a monthly

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chart in our database, it's going to look like this.

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It's a monthly right side chart, so it's

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based on the same code algorithms as the daily and weekly Right Side Charts.

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So that's not an issue.

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What I've done this weekend is I've

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actually replaced those with longer term monthly price target charts.

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So again, this is based on the same

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formulas for our daily and weekly price targets.

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Unfortunately, these algorithms take a lot of historical data to work.

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So I'd say about at least 30, maybe 40 %

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of the symbols in the database cannot produce these charts.

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So obviously, the stocks that were the high flyers that were the new stocks

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during the pandemic, there wouldn't be enough historical data.

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But when you look at a stock like Shopify or PayPal, you'd think there'd be enough

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historical data, but unfortunately there isn't.

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So that's why I don't post these on a regular basis.

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Now, just as an example, we're looking at

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the DOW Transport, and you see that we punched through our monthly target of

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17,500, and we also dip through our monthly area of support here at 12,500.

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And why is that?

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Why didn't these mathematical targets hold the market in check?

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Well, up at the top, what we were seeing was panic buying.

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So that's the time and place you look for selling opportunities.

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Down at the bottom, we saw panic selling.

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That's the time and place you look for buying opportunities.

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You're going to see this in a lot of charts, but we do use the mathematical

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targets to take money off the table or to look for new buying opportunities.

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Now, right now, we're looking at the SPDR ETF for the S&P 500.

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Remember, on the daily and weekly charts,

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our next target, 437.50, was actually two targets away.

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So we are coming up to another major target for the S&P 500.

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For the Nasdaq 100, it's 375.

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That would be our next monthly target.

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Now, one of the reasons I'm posting these charts this weekend is you can actually go

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and save these charts to your hard drive if you remember, and keep them for the

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rest of the year because these numbers are good for years.

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Obviously, you won't have the updated

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data, but the actual numbers themselves are good for years from now.

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Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000, you can see we're at 175

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right now, closed at 176.10. Our next target is 200, then 225.

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Still, the market has no interest at the present time of taking those midcap stocks

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up anywhere near those previous highs unlike the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.

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Looking at the iShares for the Microcap

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sector, you can see we're sitting just above $100.

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If you look here, this is a real easy example of the mathematics of loss.

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Let's just take... I won't go right up to the top here, but

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let's just say that we hit 150 and we've come back down to 100.

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So that's a 33 % loss.

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Now, to get that money back, you're not looking for a 33 % gain.

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You're looking for a 50 % gain to go from 100 up to 150.

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And we'll look at a couple more of those examples in a minute.

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Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX

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60, 31, 25 has been an important number for a long time.

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We closed at 31, 16 on Friday.

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So that's our monthly target.

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If we can take out the highs back in late

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2021 and early 2022, then 34, 38 would be our next target.

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Now, we don't have as wide of coverage of ETFs in the Canadian market.

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So if we look at the TSX Composite Index itself, you can see that we're up over

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20,000 and our next mathematical target is 21,250.

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Then looking at the TSX 60 itself, we're stuck here at 1,250.

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If we can take out

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the highs from back in late 2021, we're looking for a move up to 1375.

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Now, as we get away from those big cap

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stocks, when we're looking at small cap or the microcaps in the venture exchange,

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we're nowhere near going back to those previous highs.

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Just like in the US, investors in Canada

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have no interest in those small cap, microcap stocks.

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Now, over the last year, the market has

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been led higher by a handful of tech stocks, and some of those tech stocks have

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come up to their next monthly price targets.

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So absolutely no guarantee that these

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price targets are going to hold any stock in check.

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You can see for Apple, our next monthly price target is $175.

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You can see back here in late 2021, we did poke our head slightly above it.

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And if we can take out those highs, then $200 might come into play.

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But on Friday, we closed at

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$175.16. We also took some money off the table at the $175 level.

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Then looking at Meta, $250 is our next price target.

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We got as high as 248.69

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and closed at $245.64. So $250 is our next monthly price target.

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For Alphabet, it's 125.

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We got as high as $125.97 before pulling back and closing at $122.76.

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Then looking at Microsoft, $312.50, we closed above that at 3 1834.

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Of course, closing above it's not the same

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as breaking away from it, but that's where we're at at the moment.

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Then for Netflix, our next monthly target is 375.

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We got as high as 375.87 before pulling back, closing at 365.36.

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Then we're looking at NVIDIA at 31250, and we closed on Friday

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at 312.64. Then Tesla, Tesla is not acting very well over the past couple of months.

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Tesla dropped from...

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I'm just going to use the price target, so

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I'm not going to look at the ultimate high or the ultimate low.

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But if we went from 375 down to 125, we

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lost 66 % of its value from that point to this point.

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To regain that, you don't have to gain 66

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%, you actually have to go up 200 % to go from 125 to 375.

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So that's another example of the mathematics of loss.

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Of course, if you bought Tesla way back here, you're still fairly happy or not as

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happy as you were when Tesla was way up here.

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It all depends on when you got into Tesla, but our next monthly target for Tesla is

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$187.50. Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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The stock index futures have opened for trading on Sunday night.

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So far, they're fairly quiet.

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Stock index futures are slightly below

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fair value, but there's obviously no big news out over the weekend

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that has put any level of excitement into Sunday night's futures trading.

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So we'll just have to wait and see how

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things work out between now and the open at nine o'clock and 30 Monday morning.

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The next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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We will be posting US stock charts on Monday night.

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Canadian markets will be closed on Monday.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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And again, next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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Stephen Whiteside

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