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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:04Com.
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00:00:05Well, yesterday was a fairly volatile day after the CPI numbers came out.
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00:00:09In the Canadian market, it was Healthcare
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00:00:10was the winner with Consumer Discretionary, the loser, and it
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00:00:14was the opposite in the US, Consumer Discretionary was the big winner.
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00:00:18Real Estate was the big loser.
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00:00:20When it comes to looking at the major
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00:00:22indexes, it was Nasdaq leading the market higher.
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00:00:26Now in the premarket this morning, the
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00:00:27Nasdaq is actually giving up most of the gains that it made yesterday.
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00:00:31So we are looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning.
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00:00:36Now, there were some trend changes from Tuesday's trading action.
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00:00:39If you're a subscriber, you can see those in the Nightly Report.
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00:00:42There's no trend changes for the things
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00:00:44that I normally watch every day, except the VIX.
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00:00:48Now, you can see the pros giving up control here.
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00:00:51Unfortunately, I don't think the VIX is going to be very reliable for the next
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00:00:55few days as options are set to expire on Thursday.
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00:00:59So I'm really not going to rely too much
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00:01:01on the VIX, and I'm not going to get overly excited.
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00:01:04Some of the other things we're watching
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00:01:06did not change yesterday, such as the US dollar index.
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00:01:09You can see the pros are still in control.
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00:01:12And while we had a very small pullback
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00:01:14yesterday, we're still above the tether line, so no change there.
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00:01:18No change in the bond market with
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00:01:21bonds continuing to fall, bond yields continuing to move up.
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00:01:25Pro's still in control there.
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00:01:27The price of gold, it closed
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00:01:29slightly higher yesterday, still trading below 1875.
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00:01:33It is down in the premarket this morning.
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00:01:36And as you can see where the pros gave up control.
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00:01:39And then looking at the price of silver, no change in trend there.
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00:01:43We were down slightly on the day.
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00:01:45And I certainly think silver is leading
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00:01:47the metals market at the moment, and it's leading it to the downside.
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00:01:52Then looking at crude oil.
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00:01:53Now, crude oil is on a buy signal right now, but the pros and the public have been
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00:01:59intertwined, and the pros just gave up control yesterday.
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00:02:02So while crude oil can stay on a buy signal here, I
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00:02:05don't really see the pros getting too excited about crude oil, and
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00:02:09that might not help the energy sector at the moment.
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00:02:13And we'll take a look at energy stocks in a few minutes.
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00:02:16Here's natural gas.
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00:02:17The pros are certainly not taking control, but they're coming back.
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00:02:21Maybe over the next week or two, we could
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00:02:22get a new buy signal with an indication that the pros are
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00:02:26willing to take control, and that could help move natural gas up.
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00:02:31Natural gas has been floating above the
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00:02:34234 level for the last couple of weeks, and we're looking to see if
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00:02:38the pros will come back, take control, and start moving natural gas higher.
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00:02:43Looking at the DOW Diamonds, no change from yesterday.
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00:02:47Small pullback for the S&P
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00:02:50500, and a small gain for the Nasdaq, about three quarters of a % on the day.
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00:02:57Certainly nowhere near the recent high,
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00:02:59but the pros are still in control, so no sign of weakness there.
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00:03:02Similar situation for semiconductors.
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00:03:05Then looking at the Canadian market, things a bit tighter here.
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00:03:09Certainly no change in trend from yesterday's trading action.
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00:03:11The Ishares for the TSX 60 were up a tick on the day, so no change there.
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00:03:18Then looking at are financials, starting off in the US, the pros still in control.
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00:03:22They're in control of the banks, they're
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00:03:24in control of insurance and the broker dealers at the moment.
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00:03:30Then looking at the Canadian
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00:03:31financials, Canadian banks, they're holding up very well.
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00:03:34When we move on to commodities, you can
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00:03:36see energy stocks starting off with the ishares for the TSX Energy sector.
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00:03:42You can see the pros in the public almost touching at the moment.
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00:03:46So no upward momentum in the Canadian
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00:03:48market and certainly no upward momentum in the US market at the moment.
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00:03:53Unfortunately, I don't think
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00:03:55energy stocks are going to be able to go much higher from here unless the pros
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00:03:59want to become more aggressive and with commodities trading lower in the
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00:04:03pre market on Wednesday, I think that we may start to
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00:04:06see some sell signals in the energy sector joining sell signals in the gold sector.
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00:04:12There's the
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00:04:13GDX and the XGD.TO. You can see the pros not in control at the moment, so not
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00:04:20expecting any upward momentum in the precious metal stocks.
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00:04:24Then last up, the stocks I'm watching this week.
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00:04:27Apple was down yesterday ever so much.
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00:04:30Pro is still in control.
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00:04:31It doesn't look like things are going to change there.
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00:04:33It doesn't look like things are going to change for Microsoft.
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00:04:36Microsoft still holding up fairly well.
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00:04:39And you can see the Shopify, even though
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00:04:41it's on a sell signal, it came back into the channel yesterday.
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00:04:45So on the TSX, we're looking for a close
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00:04:47above 67.84 to give us a new buy signal on Wednesday.
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00:04:52If you were to take that buy signal, of
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00:04:53course, that would be considered a high risk buy signal as we are up at the top of
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00:04:57the panic zones and projecting lower prices at the time.
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00:05:00So you could get a continuation trade here.
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00:05:03I wouldn't expect it to go much higher, but it is certainly possible.
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00:05:07We see money come back into Shopify
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00:05:09as the other tech stocks are still holding up, such as Tesla.
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00:05:14And you can see the pros inching higher yesterday.
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00:05:18The stock was up sharply yesterday, it was up over 7 %.
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00:05:21So I guess the more we talk about it, the more it goes up.
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00:05:25But there it is.
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00:05:26We need to close on Wednesday below 184.77. Not expecting that to happen on
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00:05:33Wednesday, but it could certainly happen on Thursday or Friday.
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00:05:37Okay, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:39Stock index futures are still trading lower.
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00:05:42Looking at the VIX, we are back on a sell
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00:05:44signal as I mentioned, and the pros have given up control.
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00:05:48The only problem here is we're still in a very tight range.
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00:05:51So yeah, they can muck about in this
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00:05:53range, but if the stock market is going to move higher,
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00:05:56then we need it to take out this recent low.
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00:05:59If the stock market is going to move
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00:06:00lower, we need the VIX to take out this recent high.
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00:06:03So we're still in the middle of this range
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00:06:06and I don't think a new sell signal in the VIX is that conclusive that the
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00:06:11market is really going to go higher from here.
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00:06:13With options expiring this week, a lot of hedges are going to be taken off.
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00:06:17They're going to be moved to other months.
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00:06:19There's just a lot of mess going on here.
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00:06:21And so it's very hard to get a good feel of where the market is
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00:06:25going to go next based just on the VIX alone.
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00:06:29Okay, folks, we're looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning.
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00:06:32Have a great day.
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00:06:33Next time you'll hear my voice is
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00:06:35on Thursday morning. you. Bye.