Stock Market Timing Television - 05312023

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Good morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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It's Stephen White side here from the uptrend.com.
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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are down across the board.
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So far it looks like we're going to see a little selling on the last day of May.
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Now we do realize that automatic money is hitting the market.
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The market also realizes that.
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So while we can see a bullish bias at month end, if the market wants to go
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lower, that bullish bias can help dampen any downward pressure.
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We're still dealing with the debt ceiling that has not been resolved yet.
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Now, yesterday looks like a market top.
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We saw some bearish reversal signals and
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some significant symbols such as the semiconductors.
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We saw NVIDIA pulled back after making a new high.
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Broadcom had a big update yesterday and
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then reversed going into the close, closing lower on the day.
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So a big bearish reversal day for Broadcom, Microsoft, Meta.
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These stocks all had bearish reversal days
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on Tuesday, and that may mark the top for this move in the market.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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Now, the Nasdaq is nowhere near a sell
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signal coming into Wednesday's trading action.
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Our next mathematical target was 359.38. Couldn't get there yesterday.
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That doesn't mean that we can't get there.
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It's just we didn't get there on Tuesday.
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There's the S&P 500.
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It did hit our next target before pulling back at 421.88. Closed at 421.18, a lot of
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people are looking to see if the market can move out above and hold above 420.
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Now, we're often talking about the fact that the S&P 500 is market cap weighted,
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and that's why we watch the big cap stocks the most to see where they're going
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because they'll pull or push the rest of the market.
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So we know that Apple is a much more
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significant waiting and a much more significant company in the S&P 500 than,
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say, UPS, even though it's a household name or visa.
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These stocks are much smaller when you look at them based on market cap than
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Apple or Microsoft or Google or Amazon or Tesla, which are much bigger companies.
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Now, if we looked at the S&P 500 equally weighted, so every stock in the S&P 500
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was given equal representation, the market would look much different.
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So this is how it looks when it's market cap weighted.
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This is how it looks when it's equally weighted.
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And as you can see, when you put all the
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S&P 500 stocks side by side, the market isn't doing very well at the moment.
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Now, when we look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their 20
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day moving average, what's really spooky is the fact that even
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though the Nasdaq is hitting new highs right now, only 52.47 % of the Nasdaq 100
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% and 51.51 % of the Nasdaq itself are above their 20 day moving average.
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We can see that the TSX is weakest.
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We're seeing a lot of pressure on the TSX
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with banks having issues at the moment, and we've got gold stocks down sharply.
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So that's certainly putting pressure on the TSX.
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The DAO 30, only a third of the stocks in
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the DOW 30 are above their 20 day moving average.
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So it's really spooky, the fact that the Nasdaq is hitting new highs and only 52 %
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of Nasdaq 100 stocks are currently trading above their 20 day moving average.
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Well, what worked and what didn't work yesterday?
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Well, on the S&P 500, it was consumer discretionary.
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It was the big winner followed by technology stocks.
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And as you can see, we had the big pullback going into the close.
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And then real estate, those were the big winners.
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The big losers were consumer staples.
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Energy, which rolled over yesterday on both sides of the border.
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And then health care stocks made a new low for this move.
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Looking at the Canadian market, we were down across the board yesterday.
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So it was energy stocks were the big
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losers in percentage terms, followed by materials making a new low for this move.
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And then we saw health care pull back.
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Then looking at gold stocks, they made a new low yesterday.
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Financials were down a little over 1 %.
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Banks were down over 1 %.
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And when we look at the banks, we've got Bank of Montreal still on a sell signal.
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We've got Bank of Nova Scotia trading in the channel yesterday.
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A close below 66.10 on Wednesday would give us a sell signal.
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Then looking at CIBC, we're looking for a
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close below 56.21. No change in trend for the National.
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It reported earnings this morning, so
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we'll have to see how the market reacts to that.
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Then the Royal Bank, no change in trend there.
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A new low for this move for the TD Bank, still on a sell signal, no change there.
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Let's finish off this morning's
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presentation with a quick look at commodities.
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And there's crude oil rolling over yesterday back on a sell signal.
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Down again in the pre market this morning, that's also true for natural gas, still on
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a sell signal, looking to see if the recent lows will hold.
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Then looking at copper, copper moved up into the channel yesterday, pulled back
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going into the close, closing lower on the day.
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Now we had a reversal for gold.
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It's still trading below the lower channel line, so no change there.
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It's up 40 cents in the pre market last time I checked this morning.
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Silver had a bullish reversal day on Monday.
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Little pullback yesterday, still trading below the lower channel line.
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And then let's finish off with lumber.
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Of course, a couple of years ago, lumber
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was screaming, and now it's been screaming to the downside.
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So no change in trend for lumber.
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Bacon prices should be getting lower right now.
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We're seeing live hogs down at the very bottom of the chart at the moment.
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And then hamburger meat, on the other hand, should be getting expensive going
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into barbecue season, so that is unfortunate.
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Okay, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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Looking for some selling at the open on Wednesday morning.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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