Morning Market Outlook 12222023

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures are trading below fair value.

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That could change at 8:30 with economic numbers coming out.

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We have commodities all trading higher this morning with gold up over $20, and

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that could certainly help the Canadian stock market on Friday.

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One of the reasons futures are trading lower is because of Nike.

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Nike, like many other stocks, is coming

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into Friday's trading action and still looking very bullish.

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Unfortunately, the market's reaction to

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its earnings have pulled the stock down sharply.

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Of course, we've seen this several times over the past few days.

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Of course, we've talked about locking in profits, taking money off the table, over

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the last week, and hopefully, if you were trading Nike, you have done so.

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Now, Wednesday was a bearish reversal day, and so we are looking to see if that's the

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top for the market for this particular move.

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When we look at bearish reversal days, of course, they're one day events.

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They still need to be confirmed.

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Now, the high from the SPY on Wednesday

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was 475.90. So this signal is still live until we close above that level.

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And yesterday, we did not do that.

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We got as high as 472.80. So Wednesday signal is still in play.

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It hasn't been eliminated and it hasn't been confirmed yet either.

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So we're still waiting to see what happens.

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Now, Thursday turned out to be an inside day.

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Thursday's trading action actually fit within Wednesday's trading action, whether

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you're looking at the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, or the TSX 60.

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We all had inside days across the board.

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Thursday was a day of indecision, a pause day, waiting for more data.

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The VIX is still moving up.

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It closed down slightly at the end of the day yesterday, but fear is still rising.

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You can see the nice set of blue dots across the bottom here.

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We're on a buy signal.

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We made a new high for this move on Thursday.

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And so options traders are nervous at the moment.

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Not so much for bond traders.

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Yesterday was a bearish reversal day for the TLT and the XBB, but really no sign of

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major change in direction for the bond market.

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So that's still supportive for higher stock prices.

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The US Dollar index closed, made a new

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closing low yesterday, and that is supportive for higher stock prices.

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Looking at the price of gold, gold has

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been treading water for the past few days, while silver has been pushing higher.

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Gold is up over $20 in the premarket this

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morning, so gold is going to start to sync up with the price of silver.

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Then looking at crude oil, we're on a buy signal right now.

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We had a small pullback yesterday.

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We're trading higher this morning, and

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natural gas closed higher yesterday, still looking for a close on Friday above

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$2.36. Now, the biggest stock in the US, of course, is Apple.

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Apple is not looking very bullish right now.

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We've had several early warning signals across the top of the screen.

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You can see we're projecting down towards 175, 180.

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That certainly has not started yet.

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We'll have to see what happens next.

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But the pros are not that bullish on the stock at the moment.

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They haven't started to sell, but I think they've given up buying right now.

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On Friday, we're looking for a close below 194.09 to give us a sell signal for Apple,

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and that would certainly be bearish for the market.

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On the TSX, the biggest player is the Royal Bank.

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It's currently ranked at 10, way up there

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at the top, over the top of the panic zones.

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We had a bearish reversal day on Wednesday.

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Thursday turned out to be an inside day,

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and we are looking for a close on Friday below 128.44.

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I certainly don't expect that to happen,

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and the lower channel line, of course, is going to continue to move higher daily.

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Let's finish off this morning's presentation with a little chart school.

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You've always heard me say follow the money, ignore the news.

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What I mean by that is that we are very poor at figuring out the connection

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between a news event and what the market is going to do with that news event.

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Instead of using our intuition to try to

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figure out what's going to happen, it's best to let the market digest that news

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and follow the money as opposed to the news story.

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For example, if I show you these two current headlines regarding the Argentine

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economy, you would assume, more than likely, that the Argentine stock market

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would be in the tank or at least trending lower at the moment.

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And that's certainly not what's happening.

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If I showed you any headline out of the

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Middle East, anything to do with Israel at the moment, your gut feeling, your

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intuition would be that the Israeli stock market is probably in turmoil at the

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moment, and that is certainly not the case.

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So it's important to listen to the news,

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to read the news, to watch the news, but don't react to the news.

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Let the market react to the news

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and follow the market's reaction, not your intuition.

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Because you, me, our intuitions are not

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usually very good at figuring out how the market is going to react to a news story.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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And that's all for me for 2023.

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This is my last public presentation for the year.

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Now, I'm off to donate blood this morning.

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And if you've got some free time over the

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holidays, you might consider donating blood as well.

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If you're a male and you have concerns about your cardiovascular health, donating

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blood is one of the best things you can do.

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This will be my 58th blood donation.

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And remember, if you're donating blood, we offer a blood donors reward program.

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We will give discounts to anybody who's donating blood.

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So check that out on our website.

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We are closed next week.

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Next week is a holiday shortened week, and we are coming up to month end, year end.

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That usually has a little bullish bias to it, so not expecting a lot of negative

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downward pressure next week for the stock market.

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And so that's all for me.

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This will be my 23rd year of wishing everybody a merry Christmas.

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We're going into our 24th year next year.

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So thank you very much for your time, your attention, your support.

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Very much appreciate it.

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I wish you and your family a merry

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Christmas and happy holidays and a happy New Year.

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