Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 07042023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com.

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Today is Tuesday, July fourth.

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US markets are closed, Canadian markets are open.

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Canadian markets were closed yesterday.

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US markets were open for a half day.

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I was going to do an update tonight, but I'm really going to leave it.

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There isn't too much we can gain from what's happened in the markets yesterday

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and today, so we won't do an update tonight.

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We'll do one on Wednesday night and

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that'll get everybody back up to date with the markets back open on Wednesday.

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I guess the biggest thing that happened in the month of June was Apple's valuation

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got up over three trillion for the first time.

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Apple doing incredibly well at the moment.

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We are looking for our next price target, which is up there at 200.

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We haven't broken away from 187.50 just

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yet, but it is looking like the market wants to go there.

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If we can punch through 200, then 212.50, 225 come into play.

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Now, if there is a pullback during the summer, it wouldn't be unreasonable to

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expect the market to try to find support at 175.

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If that were to start to break, that would be a negative sign for the overall market.

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And if you look two lines down from 175, that takes you back down to 150.

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And then if we start to head two lines

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lower than that, you've got 137.50 and 125 come into play.

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But right now, as of July fourth, we are still looking higher for Apple.

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And the first sign that something new is

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happening is a close below the previous week's low.

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And we're certainly not seeing that right now.

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Next up, let's take a look at the VIX or the Fear Index.

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And it is still on a weekly sell signal,

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and that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices.

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Things would change for our weekly VIX

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chart if we were to close above $17.91 this coming Friday.

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So since late March, the market has

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basically been in a no fear situation looking at the weekly charts.

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And that is supportive for higher stock prices.

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It doesn't guarantee that everything is going to go up.

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There's different sectors in the market that have not done well in 2023.

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But what it does tell us when the VIX is on a weekly sell signal is that investors

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are still willing to look for opportunities.

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So if they get kicked out of one stock, they're willing to go find another stock.

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If they're kicked out of a sector or an

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ETF, they're willing to go look for another sector, another ETF.

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They're willing to buy the dip.

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When the VIX turns around and generates a

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weekly sell signal, we know that that tone of the market has started to change

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and investors are less likely to look for new opportunities at that moment.

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They're less likely to buy the dip once the VIX gets on a weekly buy signal.

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Now, the same is true on a daily chart, but of course, a shorter term time frame.

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And we went through the whole month of June with the VIX on a sell signal.

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And that, of course, is supportive for higher stock prices.

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I was looking for a more significant

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pullback in the month of June, and we did not get that at all.

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And you can see the VIX was on a sell signal through the whole month.

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And so things would change on Wednesday if

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the VIX were to close above $14.23. Now, reviewing the month of June,

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the TSX was up just under 3 %, the DOW was up a little over 4.5 %, and then we get

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the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up close to 6.5 % for the month.

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The big winners in North America were the US Transports and US Homebuilders.

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Those were the big winners in North America.

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What didn't work?

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Well, Canadian Marijuana stocks were down nearly 4.5 %, and then we had Silver

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miners down over 3.5 % for the for the month.

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Now, seasonality. This is a seasonality chart of the Nasdaq.

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And for the major indices, they're all fairly similar.

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I was expecting a more significant pullback in the month of June.

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We didn't get that.

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We did get the run up into the end of the month.

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And historically, we do get a summer rally during the month of July.

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If we go back over the past few years, you can see there's July in the middle here.

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Here's the month of July for 2018, for 2019, for 2020, for 2021, we had a

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dip, but by the end of the month, we were still trading higher.

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And then in 2022, that was last year, we did get a couple of pullbacks in the month

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of July right at the start and then into the second week.

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But then from there on, we kept moving higher.

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So the seasonality for the month of July is historically very bullish.

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And we're coming in on a very bullish quarter end, month end.

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And so it'd be interesting to see how things end this week.

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Now, looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, and we're still looking at weekly

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charts here, our next target is 3,125, which is a very important target

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because that's where we found resistance several times during 2023.

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Then looking at the DOW Diamond's, we've driven up to the 343.75 level.

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We closed at 343.85 on Friday.

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And of course, this level has been holding us in check for the past year.

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If we can start breaking out above the

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highs from last fall, then we're looking for a move up to 359.

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38 as our next possible target.

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The SPY is starting to break out above the

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437.50 level, but it hasn't broken away from it just yet.

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Our next target is 453.13 on the weekly charts.

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Then the Nasdaq has been staring at 375 for a few weeks now.

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If we can take out 375, then 406.25 comes into play.

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Then looking at the iShares for the Russell 2000,

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187.50, we closed at 187.27 on Friday, so that area of resistance is still working.

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If we can start breaking out above that, then $200 certainly comes into play.

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That is a big round number.

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As you look, you can see several times

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over the past year where we've run into the $200 level and reversed.

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Let's finish off today's presentation looking at commodity prices.

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Crude oil was up on the week, inside week

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for crude oil, looking for a close this coming Friday above 73.12. Looking at

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natural gas, we're just down five cents on the week.

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Then looking at the price of copper, we are down 1.47 % on the week.

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So still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.

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Gold bounced off $1,900 and end of the week just down 20 cents.

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So maybe we'll find support at 1900.

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We'll just have to see.

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Of course, the first sign of something new is if we close above the previous week's

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high and then inside week for the price of silver.

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Now we're halfway through 2023 and the

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stock market is still dealing with the same themes it was dealing with at the

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start of the year, whether that's central banks fighting inflation by raising

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interest rates that is still going on around the world.

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We're also watching countries fall into recession.

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It hasn't happened in North America yet,

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but it'll probably happen at some point in the not so distant future.

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And then, of course, we're still watching China implode internally, and that has not

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had much effect on the stock markets either.

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So it's not about what's going on, it's

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about how the market reacts to what's going on.

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And that's why we talk about Following The Money and not following the news or

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people's projections of what could happen in the future.

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We're just here to follow the money and to

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fight our way through all of that market noise that is going on.

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Because if you had a fall of those themes, which were all very bearish,

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you certainly wouldn't be participating in the market today.

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Okay, that is all for today's presentation.

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I was going to do an update on Tuesday night, and then I thought better of it.

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We don't need to deal with what's happened on Monday or Tuesday.

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Markets are thinly traded.

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The pros are on holidays at the moment.

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Some of them will be coming back tomorrow.

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I'm sure some of them are taking the whole

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week off, but we'll wait until we get Wednesday's data.

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We'll print that on Wednesday night and

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we'll make decisions on what to do next based on Wednesday night's data.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Next time I'm donating blood is going to

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be tomorrow morning at 10 AM at Yonge & Bloor.

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So if you're in the neighborhood, stop by, say hello, go for a coffee.

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Otherwise, have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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