Stock Market Timing Television - 05232023

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00:00:01

Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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In the premarket this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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Stock index futures are slightly below fair value.
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DOW futures currently down 60 points.
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So far, it looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning.
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Now, sometimes markets can be highly
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correlated, and that means that they move in sync with each other.
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The market that we watch the closest for
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correlation is the correlation between the S&P 500 and the VIX.
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We expect if the VIX is going down that the S&P 500 will be going up.
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If the VIX is going up, we expect the S&P 500 to go down.
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Now, another area of the market that has a strong correlation is the correlation
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between the US dollar index and the stock market and the price of gold.
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Now, not all correlations, they're not guaranteed.
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Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.
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Now, when we go back to the month of February, we had a nice big move up in the
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US dollar index, and we're seeing the start of that now.
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The US dollar index has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now.
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If we can continue to move higher from here, the last time that we rallied like
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this, we saw the S&P 500 pull back sharply through the month of February into March.
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We also saw the price of gold pull back as well.
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Now, so far, the price of gold has already started to pull back.
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It's down again in the premarket this morning.
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So that correlation is working.
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What hasn't started yet is the move down in the stock market.
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So no guarantee that the US dollar index
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is going to be able to continue to move higher from here.
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But if it does, we may see a negative
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effect on the stock market and a continued negative effect on the price of gold.
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Now, the VIX traded in the channel on Monday, a close above 1807 would give us a
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buy signal, and we would expect that to be negative for stocks.
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Now, once again, it was technology stocks leading the market higher.
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I didn't notice it that much on the Nasdaq 100, up just a third of a %.
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It was more visible looking at the chip sector with the stocks
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trading higher and the spider, Semicondactor ETF up over 1 % on the day.
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Looking at the S&P 500, we barely moved yesterday.
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Our next mathematical target on the SPY is 421.88. On the index itself, it's
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421.75. What the market is really watching right now is not that number.
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They're watching the big round number of 4200 or 420 on the SPY.
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The market is having trouble with that level at the moment.
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If it can punch through it, and we got
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pretty close to it yesterday, we can get up to 4,218.
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75 on Tuesday.
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Looking at the DOW Diamonds, we traded down into the channel, dipped below the
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lower channel line but did not close there.
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On Tuesday, we're looking for a close
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below 332.32 to give us a new sell signal for the DOW Diamonds.
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Now, Nike continued to lead the DOW lower
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yesterday, but we also saw Walgreen Boots put in a new low.
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Now, this was an interesting move.
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We're looking for support at 31.25. The high of the day was actually 31.27,
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and we closed at 3,1.19. So the stock is really trying to hold on to that 31.25
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level, even though we made a new low yesterday intraday.
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We, of course, care about where things
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close and it closed right up at that level of the 31.25 area of support.
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Now, the Canadian market didn't trade on Monday.
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On Friday, we traded up
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closing just above the lower channel line looking for a close on Tuesday above
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31.36. Now, US bank stocks were up yesterday.
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Canadian bank stocks pulled back on Friday.
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Canadian banks start reporting earnings
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this week, so that could add to the volatility in the banking sector.
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On Friday, Canadian energy stocks ended the week on a buy signal.
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On Monday, we saw a small pullback in US energy stocks down less than half a %.
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Still waiting for a buy signal for this sector in the US.
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Looking at gold stocks on the TSX, they
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traded up on Friday, filling the open gap and then closing higher on the day.
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On Monday, we saw the GDX pull back, having an inside day.
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So a day of indecision for gold stocks in the US on Monday.
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Let's finish off today's presentation looking at commodities.
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The price of copper is trying to hold support here.
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It's been on a sell signal for a few weeks now.
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Then we had an inside day for the GLD and the SLV and the USO on Monday.
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So no change in trend for gold or silver.
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And the price of crude oil is still on a buy signal here treading water.
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We need a close on Tuesday below 62.99 to give us a sell signal for the USO.
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Looking at gasoline, new high for this move on Monday.
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And then looking at the natural gas, big
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pullback on Monday, trading back down to the upper channel line.
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Looking for a close on Tuesday below
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$6.71. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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So far, it looks like we're going to see a quiet open at 9:30 Tuesday morning.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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