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00:00:00Hello everyone. It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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00:00:03uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:08Well, to summarize things, things are still looking fairly bullish, but the
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00:00:11market has run into a wall of resistance and we do have a couple of things that
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00:00:17have started to break that we need to keep an eye on.
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00:00:19So let's take a look at those.
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00:00:21Let's start off this weekend's
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00:00:23presentation with the two most important numbers.
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00:00:26Starting off, looking at the VIX.
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00:00:27If you're a lonlong-termlong-termg term investor, write this number down.
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00:00:30As long as the VIX does not close above 23.
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00:00:3342 this coming Friday, we will remain long term bullish on the market.
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00:00:39Now, if you're trading the market and
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00:00:41watching it daily on Monday, we want to make sure the VIX does not close above
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00:00:4520.10. Close above 20.10 would be the first sign that something new is happening
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00:00:50and in this case, that something new would be negative for the market.
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00:00:54Now the next line in the sand is going to be 21.
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00:00:5788.
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00:00:57We ran up to that level a couple of weeks ago and reversed, and I would be more
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00:01:03concerned on a short term basis if we start breaking out above 21.short-term88.
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00:01:08Now, next up, I want to talk about resistance and the S&P 500 was able to
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00:01:13break through resistance but not break away from it.
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00:01:16So it still stuck to the 4062.50 level, but it certainly made a higher high.
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00:01:22So from a bullish point of view, you've
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00:01:24made a higher low and a higher high that is very bullish.
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00:01:28When we move on to the TSX and the TSX 60, you can see we've run into resistance when
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00:01:33we were at this level a couple of months ago.
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00:01:35So we're up at the 1250 level.
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00:01:37We closed just a dollar and change above it.
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00:01:40So we have not broken away just yet.
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00:01:43But the TSX is looking fairly bullish.
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00:01:45We're nowhere near the upper channel line
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00:01:47and things are turning up for both the channel lines.
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00:01:51And you can see we're still projecting higher levels on the panic zone chart.
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00:01:56So of course, we're going to be looking for a new early warning signal up there.
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00:01:59And if we get that, then we're going to be
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00:02:01looking to see if this nice uptrend line holds if it breaks.
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00:02:05If we start trading below the uptrend line, then we would expect a run down to
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00:02:10the recent low from a couple of months ago.
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00:02:13Now looking at the Dow, the Dow has been dealing with 34.
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00:02:16375 for months now and has still not been able to break out above it.
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00:02:20The Nasdaq 100 moved up to the 1250 level and stopped on a dime.
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00:02:26And the Russell 2000 actually moved up to
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00:02:292000 and stopped on a dime, closing just below it.
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00:02:32So you can see that a lot of the market has run into major areas of resistance.
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00:02:37Whether you're looking at the TSX 60, the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000.
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00:02:42Now, running into resistance doesn't mean a lot.
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00:02:45It tells us that we're probably going to stop there, which has happened and now we
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00:02:49need to see how the market reacts to that resistance.
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00:02:53You can see that back
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00:02:55a few months ago, back in the late summer, that this is the time and place where the
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00:02:59market turned around and so we'll have to see if it does it again this week,
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00:03:04otherwise we've got our next targets to the upside.
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00:03:06And you can see just as an example on the
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00:03:09Russell 2000 that 2125 is our next target to the upside.
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00:03:14Is that a legitimate target?
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00:03:15Well, guess what, we hit it back in March of this year and reversed.
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00:03:21So yeah, that's a legitimate target to the
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00:03:22upside if we can continue to move higher from here.
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00:03:26So as far as most market participants are
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00:03:28concerned, things are still looking very bullish in early 2023.
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00:03:34Now here's something that you need to keep an eye on and from a bullish point of
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00:03:37view, the US dollar index actually made a new low this week and so the market has
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00:03:42been moving in sync with a lower US dollar.
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00:03:45But on Friday we had a big move up and the US dollar index actually closed on a new
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00:03:51buy signal and the pros are just about to take control.
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00:03:55Now we had a buy signal back at the start of January which quickly reversed.
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00:03:59It only lasted a couple of days and then it was over.
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00:04:02That could happen again, we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:04:05But you can see that while the US dollar
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00:04:07index was going up, some of the foreign currencies such as the British pound and
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00:04:12the euro got hit hard and they are back on sell signals.
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00:04:16Now even with the Fed meeting this week, the bond market barely moved.
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00:04:21The 30 year bond was down ever so slightly.
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00:04:23Still on a weekly buy signal here, no change.
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00:04:26Now what didn't work this week?
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00:04:28While the biggest loser was probably the price of gold, down 3.41% on the week we
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00:04:34were trying to get to $2,000, that was our next price target.
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00:04:37But we had a huge move down and when I say
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00:04:40huge, the first thing you look for is a close below the previous week's low.
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00:04:44Well, in this particular case, not only did we close below the previous week's
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00:04:48low, you can go back three weeks and you can see we closed below that low.
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00:04:53So that's quite a massive move for the price of gold.
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00:04:56We're still on a buy signal here that
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00:04:57would change this coming Friday with a close below 1837.
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00:05:01Ten of course, on the daily charts we are
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00:05:04back on a lot of sell signals for the gold miners in the US.
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00:05:09You can see we traded back into the
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00:05:10Channel, that's also true north of the border with the XGD.
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00:05:15Also trading back in the channel.
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00:05:17Now, energy stocks didn't fare any better than gold stocks.
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00:05:21The price of crude oil was down 6.46%, and the US.
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00:05:25Gold stocks were down 5.78%. In Canada, they were down 5.72%.
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00:05:31So in both cases, notice that looks like we put in a lower high there in the US.
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00:05:37And a lower high here in Canada.
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00:05:39So there's a high lower high, another lower high.
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00:05:43So that's a very bearish chart pattern.
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00:05:46Now, what worked well in the US.
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00:05:48It was retail stocks, followed by transports, both having nice big weeks.
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00:05:52And in Canada, it was Infotech, followed by financial services.
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00:05:57Those were the big winners north of the border.
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00:06:00Now, we're almost done.
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00:06:02I just want to take a look at one last set of charts for Tesla.
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00:06:06Back at the start of January, we were looking at Tesla.
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00:06:08Tesla making a new low.
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00:06:10And we're looking at a daily chart here.
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00:06:12And we were contemplating if Tesla broke
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00:06:15100, which of course, is a big round number.
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00:06:17On this particular day, we made the low, and it was 104.64.
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00:06:22So what was going to happen next?
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00:06:24Will we make a lower low?
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00:06:25Would we break down below 100?
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00:06:27If we were going to break down below 100, then 93.
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00:06:3175 and 62.
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00:06:3250 were the next targets to the downside.
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00:06:35Now, if the market was going to turn around, then 156.
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00:06:3825 and 187.
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00:06:4050 would be our next targets to the upside.
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00:06:43We'll move ahead a month. And what happened?
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00:06:45Well, we got a buy signal in Tesla, and we ran up, and we got to 156.
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00:06:5025. So congratulations.
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00:06:51You got to lock in some profits there. Then.
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00:06:54If you had orders in at 187.
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00:06:5650, well, congratulations.
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00:06:57You got to lock in some profits there.
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00:06:59If you still have shares left in Tesla, I
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00:07:02put an order in at 199, and I'd also put an order in at 218 75.
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00:07:07And of course, you're just going to leave those orders in place, and you're either
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00:07:10going to get filled up there or we're going to get kicked out.
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00:07:14And on Monday, we would need a close below 150.
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00:07:17716 to kick us out.
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00:07:19And if that didn't happen on Monday, of
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00:07:21course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:07:25Okay, folks, that's all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:07:28Things are still looking fairly bullish,
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00:07:30but the market has run into a wall of resistance.
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00:07:34What we do next is yet to be determined.
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00:07:37We'll have to come back this time next
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00:07:39weekend to see how the market handles running into a wall of resistance.
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00:07:45Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:07:46The next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.