Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 07162023

00:00:00

Hello, everyone, and welcome to this

00:00:02

weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.

00:00:05

My name, of course, is Stepen Whiteside from theuptrend.

00:00:07

com.

00:00:08

And in this weekend's presentation, we're going to focus a little more on the

00:00:11

Canadian market than we usually do in the weekend presentation.

00:00:15

Of course, we will start off looking at the US market, and we saw bond yields

00:00:20

reverse from previous highs that we saw last fall, and they've pulled back.

00:00:24

They're still on a buy signal, but the

00:00:27

trend has not changed, but the momentum to the upside certainly has.

00:00:30

Looking at the US dollar index, it collapsed this week, breaking down below

00:00:34

the 2023 lows, while the euro broke out above the 2023 high.

00:00:39

So a pullback in the US dollar, of course, makes US exports cheaper around the world,

00:00:45

and that can be good for the US stock market.

00:00:49

Now, the VIX was down over 10 % on the week.

00:00:52

Right now, we're looking for a close this

00:00:53

coming Friday above 17.18 to tell us that long term investors are

00:00:58

starting to think twice about owning stocks.

00:01:01

On the daily chart, if you're watching the

00:01:03

market on Monday, a close above 1488 would tell us that short term investors are

00:01:07

starting to get concerned about the direction of the stock market.

00:01:11

Now, if we look at the daily Fly Paper channel chart, you can see the top of the

00:01:15

Fly Paper channel is starting to break down below $18.

00:01:18

We can see moves up into the Fly Paper

00:01:20

channel can really affect the market on a short term basis.

00:01:25

If we're going to see a longer term trend

00:01:27

change happen, we would need the VIX to start breaking out above 18.

00:01:32

You can see back here in March, we had

00:01:34

that for a few weeks before that we started to come back down.

00:01:39

So we're really looking for a move up

00:01:41

above 18 dollars to tell us that longer term investors are starting to be

00:01:45

concerned about the direction of the stock market.

00:01:48

When we look at the seasonalities and we're looking at the futures contracts

00:01:52

here, the market often peaks in the third week of July.

00:01:57

So wouldn't be surprised if the market was going to end the summer rally this week.

00:02:01

That doesn't guarantee a huge pullback in the market.

00:02:05

It just means that upward momentum is going to start to dissipate and we

00:02:09

shouldn't look for the market to be able to move much higher from here.

00:02:13

That, of course, is looking at historical

00:02:17

information and historical data, that doesn't guarantee anything at all.

00:02:21

That's just usually what happens.

00:02:24

Then it's been pretty good over the past 15 years.

00:02:27

100 % of the time, the market peaks around July 19th.

00:02:31

Now, looking at the DOW, the DOW has run up to resistance.

00:02:35

Once again, we closed just above the 34,375 level.

00:02:39

Looking at a weekly chart here, and you can see that we haven't been able to

00:02:44

really break out above that level in over a year.

00:02:47

Then looking at the S&P 500, we made a new high this week.

00:02:50

We traded up just below the 4531.25 level.

00:02:54

Got as high as 4527.76. So very close to our next price target.

00:03:00

Then looking at the Nasdaq continuing to

00:03:02

move higher up over three and a half % on the week.

00:03:06

Now, you've probably heard me say this many times.

00:03:08

If you've watched my daily videos, I

00:03:10

always tell you to look for the first close below the previous bar.

00:03:14

That's the first sign that something's happening.

00:03:16

That's not a guaranteed sell signal.

00:03:18

It's just a time to reconsider what's going on.

00:03:22

If we go back to the start of this rally and we are looking at a weekly chart here,

00:03:26

the first time we closed below the previous week's low is right here.

00:03:30

Then the next week we reversed, then the

00:03:32

next week we came down, didn't close below the previous week's low, and the market

00:03:37

did continue to trade lower but did not close below the lower channel line.

00:03:41

We bounced off the lower channel line and moved up.

00:03:44

And since that time, we have not closed below the previous week's low once.

00:03:49

Yes, we've closed lower, we've had inside

00:03:50

weeks, but we haven't closed below the previous week's low.

00:03:54

Then depending on what chart you're looking at, it really doesn't matter.

00:03:57

These are bars. So if this was a daily chart or an hourly

00:03:59

chart or a monthly chart, we look for the same thing.

00:04:02

That is the first clue that something

00:04:04

might be happening and the market might be starting to change direction.

00:04:09

And so far, we certainly haven't seen that for most of the major US indices.

00:04:14

Now, we are still stuck at 15,000 for the Nasdaq 100.

00:04:17

We're looking at the indexes themselves, not the ETFs.

00:04:21

We're still stuck at 15,000.

00:04:23

We traded below that this week, and now

00:04:25

we're looking to see if we can break out and move up to 16,250.

00:04:29

And if you look to the left, way to the

00:04:31

left, you'll see that's where we peak back in late 2021.

00:04:37

Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian market.

00:04:39

And we'll start off by looking at a couple of monthly charts.

00:04:42

The TSX has been stuck to 20,000 for a long time now since last year, and

00:04:48

really haven't been able to break away from it.

00:04:52

I tell people to look two lines up, two

00:04:54

lines down anytime they're looking at one of these charts.

00:04:57

And so if we look two lines down from here, that takes us back down to 1,750.

00:05:02

And that's where we peaked back in 2019.

00:05:05

And of course, if you look two lines up,

00:05:07

that takes us up to 22,500, which would be just above where we peaked in late 2021.

00:05:14

Those are our price targets.

00:05:16

If we're going to break down and pull back, that's down to 17,500.

00:05:21

If the bull market is going to continue or we're going to break out,

00:05:25

then 22,500 would be the top of our projected trading range.

00:05:30

Now, when you're looking at the TSX 60, the numbers are a little different.

00:05:34

If we pull back from where we are now, down two lines, I'd be back down to 1,000.

00:05:38

Of course, two lines up takes us up to 1,500.

00:05:42

And then looking at the ishares for the

00:05:44

TSX 60, two lines down takes us down to $25.

00:05:48

Two lines up takes us up to $37.50. Those are your long term price targets.

00:05:53

Now, if we look at the weekly charts, the

00:05:55

TSX traded and closed just slightly above the upper channel line.

00:05:59

That's technically a buy signal.

00:06:02

I would personally be interested in buying the Canadian market if it broke out above

00:06:07

the previous highs that we saw back in April and back at the start of the year.

00:06:11

That would be more convincing.

00:06:14

There's the TSX 60 closing just below the upper channel line.

00:06:19

Midterm charts are back on a buy signal.

00:06:22

Small cap charts are back on a buy signal,

00:06:24

and microcap stocks are back on a buy signal.

00:06:28

Looking at the sectors, consumer discretionary still on a buy signal.

00:06:32

No joy for consumer staples.

00:06:34

Looking at energy stocks, we actually

00:06:37

traded up through the upper channel line this week, but then pulled back.

00:06:40

Still closed higher on the week, certainly not in sync with the price of oil.

00:06:45

Financials are back on a buy signal.

00:06:47

Banks are back on a buy signal.

00:06:49

We'll take a look at some of those stocks in a few minutes.

00:06:51

Gold stocks were up big time this week, up over 7 %, still not on a weekly buy

00:06:56

signal, but certainly lots of daily buy signals.

00:06:59

And that's a pretty bullish chart.

00:07:01

You can see that we recently put in a

00:07:03

higher low and a higher high, and that's usually a bullish sign, no guarantee.

00:07:08

But certainly when you're looking and

00:07:10

comparing one chart against another, it's a very bullish chart.

00:07:13

Compare that to income trusts, and you can

00:07:17

see that we recently put in a lower high and a lower low.

00:07:21

So that's a more bearish looking chart if you were to compare the two of them.

00:07:26

Then looking at health care, nothing going on there.

00:07:28

There's only a handful stocks in the TSX Healthcare Index these days.

00:07:33

Then looking at global mining, back on a

00:07:36

buy signal, we've got base metals back on a buy signal.

00:07:39

Inside the channel for industrials, we're

00:07:43

still on a weekly buy signal, no trend change there.

00:07:47

And then InfoTech, looking very similar to the Nasdaq.

00:07:51

Of course, this particular sector is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks.

00:07:56

Some of our Canadian InfoTech stocks not doing very well.

00:07:58

That is also true in the US, in which the

00:08:01

Nasdaq is heavily weighted in a handful of stocks.

00:08:05

Then looking at materials, trading up into the channel, no buy signal there.

00:08:09

Looking at real estate, we're back on a buy signal.

00:08:11

Looking for a close above 309.34. We

00:08:13

closed at 310.47. Then looking at telecom stocks, they were down on the week.

00:08:19

We'll take a look at those in a minute.

00:08:21

Then utilities were up, made a new low for

00:08:23

this move, and then reversed, but still on a weekly sell signal.

00:08:27

Let's look at some individual stocks in

00:08:29

the winner on the TSX this week was Laurentian Bank, up over 27 %.

00:08:35

Then the market showed some interest in Canadian Western Bank, up over 5 %.

00:08:40

Td Bank was up 3.71 % on the week, third week of a buy signal.

00:08:45

Then Bank of Nova Scotia was up 2.14 %, still no weekly buy signal just yet.

00:08:50

And the Royal Bank back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close.

00:08:55

Looking at what didn't work, while

00:08:57

insurance companies didn't really perform in sync with banks, Intact Financial was

00:09:01

the biggest loser, just down 1.58 %, still on a weekly buy signal.

00:09:06

And we saw a small pullback for Sun Life, still on a weekly buy signal.

00:09:10

Now looking at technology, of course,

00:09:12

Shopify is the big elephant in the room and it was up over 10 % on the week.

00:09:18

Then looking at Celestica, up over 5 %, making a new high for this move.

00:09:22

And then anything Bitcoin related did well.

00:09:25

So Hut 8 and Bitfarm were both up on the week.

00:09:29

Constellation Software was up 1.44 %, and

00:09:32

it's another big behemoth in the tech sector.

00:09:36

What didn't work?

00:09:37

Telus International down over 30 % on the week.

00:09:40

The market hasn't liked this stock for quite a while now.

00:09:43

Some other stocks, the market's watching closely.

00:09:45

The telecom stocks are all down this week.

00:09:47

We saw Bell, we saw Rogers, and we saw Telus all trade lower on the week.

00:09:52

And of course, all of them have already

00:09:54

been on weekly sell signals for a few months now.

00:09:58

Let's finish off this week looking at commodity prices.

00:10:01

And we've got copper back on a weekly buy signal.

00:10:04

Gold was up on the week.

00:10:05

Silver was the big winner.

00:10:07

So the industrial metals, copper and silver, did very well on the week.

00:10:11

Crude oil was also higher up 2.42 % back on a weekly buy signal.

00:10:16

And unfortunately, natural gas pulled back just 1.56 % on the week.

00:10:21

Still on a weekly buy signal, still have not got the pros to take control.

00:10:25

You'd think with all this heat and people using air conditioners, there'd be more

00:10:30

demand for natural gas, which would push up the prices.

00:10:32

But that's not what's happening at the moment.

00:10:36

Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

00:10:38

Stock index futures have started trading

00:10:40

on Sunday night and so far they're just down slightly.

00:10:43

So no major selling in the premarket on Sunday night.

00:10:48

I always end my presentations asking you to donate blood.

00:10:52

Why not meet me halfway?

00:10:54

At least find out what your blood type is.

00:10:57

I was at a party on Friday night and some

00:10:59

of the people I was talking to had no idea what their blood type was.

00:11:02

It's rather important if something ever happened to you and it was an emergency

00:11:08

and they gave you the wrong type of blood because they didn't know what your blood

00:11:11

type was, that could cause really, really bad problems.

00:11:15

So you want to know what it is.

00:11:16

You want to make your family aware of what your blood type is.

00:11:21

Luckily, I have the most common blood type, so I'm more than likely to get the

00:11:27

right type of blood if something ever happened to me.

00:11:30

But you could find out that you could be a local celebrity if you have a rare blood

00:11:36

type and the blood bank in your area is really looking for that type of blood.

00:11:44

You could be a local celebrity, so you should at least meet me halfway.

00:11:48

If you're not willing to donate blood, at least find out what your blood type is.

00:11:52

Okay, folks, again, that's all for this weekend's presentation.

00:11:55

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

00:11:56

Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

Transcription