Stock Market Timing 09202023

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Hello, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly quiet.

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They're slightly above fair value.

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Commodities are mixed.

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Not a lot of movements in the premarket this morning.

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We are waiting for the Fed announcement

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this afternoon, and that's when we expect volatility to expand dramatically.

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Now, we are focused on Amazon generating a sell signal.

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It's just another one of the big cap tech stocks that are starting to roll over.

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Of course, this all started a couple of weeks ago when Apple fell out of the sky.

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Apple is still on a sell signal.

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That would change on Wednesday with a close above $180.02.

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So far in the premarket, Apple is down about 50 cents last time I checked.

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So certainly, there's no direction in the premarket this morning.

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Now, Apple is part of the Dow 30.

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The Dow rolled over yesterday, and it is back on a sell signal.

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So if we look at the rest of the tech stocks in the DOW, you can see that

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Salesforce coming into today already on a sell signal.

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That is also true for Cisco.

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Ibm has been on a sell signal for a few days now.

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Then we've got Intel joining the party with Amazon rolling over on Tuesday.

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Now looking at some of the other big tech

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stocks, we've got Microsoft on a sell signal right now.

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We've got Netflix on a sell signal.

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We've got NVIDIA still on a sell signal, having an inside day on Tuesday.

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Then we talked about Shopify yesterday rolling over.

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It continued to move lower

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and that put some downward pressure on the TSX on Tuesday.

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Now we still have a handful of big cap

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tech stocks that are still on buy signals right now, including Alphabet, which made

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a new high on Monday and pulled back slightly on Tuesday.

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Now we do have Meta and Tesla both trading in the channel right now.

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If we generate sell signals this week, that would give us a lower high for both

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of those stocks, which, of course, is a bearish chart pattern.

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You'll notice on Tesla, we've got an open gap there that is currently acting as

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support, and we'll have to see if that continues to hold.

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Now, yesterday, I talked about the tail of two markets.

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We've got the Canadian market trying to

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punch through summer highs while the US market is trying to hold summer lows.

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Looking at the iShares for the TSX-60, it

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looks like resistance at 31.25 is held us in check.

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Now we're coming down sharply.

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We've filled that open gap and it looks like we want to continue to go lower here.

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We need to close on Wednesday below $30.67 for the iShares for the TSX60.

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Now last week when this popped, I

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said I wasn't that confident in this move because the market was being led higher by

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very defensive sectors, which don't usually lead the market anywhere.

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But that's what happened last week.

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And yesterday, it wasn't just tech stocks that pulled us back.

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We saw gold stocks trade back in the

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channel and we saw energy stocks trade down to the lower channel line.

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In both cases, we're still on buy signals coming into Wednesday's trading action,

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but that could certainly change on Wednesday.

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Now, looking at the US market, the Dow rolled over yesterday.

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It is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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It looks like we put in a lower high last week and we're a day or two away from

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retesting the summer lows, unlike the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, which

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are both already on sell signals and certainly well above their August lows.

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Now, when you look at the rest of the US market, it doesn't look as pretty.

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We've got the iShares for the Russell 2000 dipping below the August lows.

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That is no longer an important level of support.

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You can see the August lows broke a while

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ago for the microcap sector, Semiconductors, and the DOW Transports.

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Now, Wednesday is going to be all about bond yields.

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We saw bond yields move up on Tuesday for

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the five-year, and the 10 year, and the 30 year.

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Of course, the 30 year holding back a bit.

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It's the shorter term yields that are

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moving up faster than the longer term yields at the moment.

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It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts to the Fed meeting this afternoon.

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Let's finish off looking at commodities.

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We've got copper back below the lower channel line.

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We traded through the upper channel line

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for two days but did not catch a buy signal.

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Unlike the price of gold, which is still on a buy signal, so it ended the day just

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up 30 cents, so not a lot of enthusiasm for gold right now.

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Silver traded up to the upper channel line before closing lower on the day.

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On Wednesday, we're looking for a close

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above 23.70 to give us a buy signal for silver.

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Then Crudol made a new high yesterday before reversing, and it reversed off our

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next price target of 90.63, got as high as 90.75 before pulling back.

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We're still on a buy signal here, not

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concerned about a sell signal on Wednesday.

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Then looking at natural gas, we're looking

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for a close on Wednesday above $3.05. You can see that 293 is acting as support.

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Looks like we're putting in a nice base

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there, and wouldn't be surprised if we could get things started and take another

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run at the summer highs over the next few weeks.

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Let's finish off looking at the VIX.

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And the VIX traded through the Upper

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channel line for the second day in a row, but did not close above it.

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So on Wednesday, we're looking for a close above $14.59 to give us a buy signal.

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We're finding support here just above the

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12.50 level, and we've got resistance at 18.75. In the month of August, we did

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trade through the top of the fly paper channel, but we didn't break away from it.

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We found resistance at the 200-day moving average.

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If the market is going to have a major

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correction in September or October, we need the VIX to start trading above that

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200-day moving average, and we're not expecting that to happen on Wednesday.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Stock index futures are where I left them when I started the presentation.

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Looking for volatility to expand dramatically after 2:30 this afternoon.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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