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00:00:00Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.
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00:00:04com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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00:00:08They're quiet ahead of a large number of
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00:00:11economic numbers that are going to come out at 8:30 this morning,
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00:00:14and those could certainly change the direction of the market, but so far, it
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00:00:17looks like investors want to do a little buying on Thursday morning.
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00:00:22Starting off, looking at the TSX Energy Index.
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00:00:25This index has been on a run for the last month, and we are still projecting higher
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00:00:31prices here, but we are coming up to resistance.
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00:00:34You can see where we peaked back a few months ago, just above where we are now.
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00:00:39That could certainly be a target and an area where the market starts to pull back.
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00:00:45Now, when we're looking at individual
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00:00:47stocks, they should look pretty similar to this.
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00:00:50They should have caught a bid as the index started to move up, and they should have
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00:00:56been making new highs over the past couple of days.
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00:00:59So we'll have to see if that's the case.
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00:01:02We'll take a look at some individual stocks later in the presentation.
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00:01:05Looking at price targets, you can see we are coming up to our next price target,
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00:01:09and that's where we peaked out back in November.
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00:01:12Of course, we are projecting higher prices
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00:01:14here, so we could break through that level and head up.
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00:01:18You can see on the weekly chart that 281.
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00:01:2125 would be our next weekly target.
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00:01:23We did struggle to get up to that level
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00:01:25back in the fall of last year, and at the fall of 2022, we started to fade.
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00:01:34We were able to trade above that level back in the summer of 2022, but it's been
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00:01:40a while since we've been back up at these levels.
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00:01:44Now, one of the most actively traded ETFs in Canada is the iShares XEG.
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00:01:49It's one of the most popular ways to play
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00:01:51the energy sector if you don't want to be a stock picker.
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00:01:54And as you can see, it's looking pretty
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00:01:56similar to the index, making a new closing high for this move.
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00:02:00We are coming up to the 17. 58 level.
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00:02:03That's where we peaked out back in early November.
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00:02:06The top of our projected trading range on this chart is 17.
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00:02:0997, and so that is certainly a legitimate target.
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00:02:13If we can take that out, then a possible run up to 18.
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00:02:1775 could happen, and we peaked out there back in the summer of 2022.
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00:02:24Now, the iShares ETF is an unleveraged
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00:02:27ETF, so it's going to trade pretty similar to the index It was up 1.
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00:02:3281% yesterday.
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00:02:33The way I prefer to trade this sector is
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00:02:36to use the 2X Horizons BetaPro XEU ETF, and it was up 3.
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00:02:4252%, as you would expect yesterday.
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00:02:45It's looking pretty similar to the index itself.
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00:02:49Our next price target is 29.
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00:02:5269, and that's where we peaked out back in early November.
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00:02:56Now, of course, when we get a sell signal in the Bull ETF, the 2X Bull ETF, we can
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00:03:02always roll over and look at the possibility of buying the 2X Bear ETF,
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00:03:08which could certainly come into play at some time in the not-so-distant future.
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00:03:13Now, looking at individual stocks, again,
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00:03:16they should look pretty similar to the index.
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00:03:18They should have caught a bid when the index caught a bid, and they
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00:03:23should be making new highs for this move as TC Energy is doing.
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00:03:26But we're going to look to see how similar they to the index themselves.
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00:03:31There's Suncor making a new high for this move, a new high for Canadian Natural
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00:03:36Resources, a new high for Crescent Point yesterday.
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00:03:40There's a new high for Synovus.
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00:03:43And anything that's trading in the channel
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00:03:45or dipping into the channel, we want to be concerned about a possible sell signal.
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00:03:50That is certainly not the case for Cenovus on Thursday morning.
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00:03:54There's a new high for Pembina.
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00:03:56Unfortunately, Baytex rolled over a couple of weeks ago, and it's coming back.
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00:04:00It traded up to the upper channel line
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00:04:02yesterday, so we're looking for a close on Thursday above $4.
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00:04:0841.
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00:04:09Then looking at Athabasca, we made a new high a few days ago.
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00:04:14Potential for a sell signal on Thursday with a close below $4.
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00:04:1898.
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00:04:19A similar situation for Whitecap, we're looking for a close on Thursday below $9.
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00:04:2546. Then looking at Embridge, new high for
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00:04:28this move, and it It looks like we had a bearish reversal day yesterday.
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00:04:32We made a new high and rolled over, closed slightly lower on the day, did not close
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00:04:37below the previous day's low, so I wouldn't be overly concerned just yet.
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00:04:41Then looking at Tamarack, we traded in the channel for a couple of days.
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00:04:46Closed below 341 on Thursday would give us a new sell signal for Tamarack.
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00:04:52And last up this morning, MEG Energy making a new closing high for this move.
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00:04:57Now, if you haven't heard the lecture
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00:04:58before, You want to make sure you've been taking money off the table.
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00:05:03If you haven't already done so, then
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00:05:05Thursday would probably be a good day to do so.
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00:05:07I would never completely liquidate a
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00:05:10winning position, but stocks fall faster than they rise.
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00:05:14A lot of times when we get up to these
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00:05:16levels where we've seen previous selling, you want to make sure that you've tucked
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00:05:21some money back in your own pocket before the market takes it away from you.
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00:05:26Again, we have no sell signals coming into
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00:05:29Thursday's trading action, so there's absolutely no reason to completely
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00:05:33liquidate a position in the energy sector on Thursday morning.
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00:05:38Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:05:41Hey, I've got a favor to ask.
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00:05:42I've been sick for the last month and
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00:05:45unable to donate blood, and if you wouldn't mind stepping up for me and
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00:05:50filling in and donating blood this week, I would really appreciate it.
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00:05:54And I certainly know that those people
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00:05:57that are expecting or unexpected expecting to have surgery this week would also
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00:06:02appreciate any blood donation you can make.
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00:06:05That's all for today's presentation, folks.
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00:06:07Have a great day. Next time you'll hear my voice is on
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00:06:10Friday morning, and at that time, we'll take a look at the North American markets.