Energy Stocks 03222024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Friday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.

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com In the pre-market this morning, things are fairly quiet.

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There's no major economic numbers coming out this morning.

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There's some individual stock news.

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We'll get to that in a couple of minutes.

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We do have gold trading down $15 to $20, depending on when you blink.

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Looking at the VIX, you can see the VIX made a new low for this move on Thursday,

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and then basically clawed its way back to almost unchanged on the day.

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The VIX is still on a daily sell signal.

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That's positive for short-term market outlook.

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If we look at some weekly charts that I just created this morning, they're not on

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the website, but I just wanted to see how the week was progressing into the weekend.

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The VIX is still on a weekly sell signal,

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so that's supportive for a long term positive movement in the stock market.

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Remember, back here in October is when we got our weekly sell signal, and from that

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point on, the stock market has been moving higher.

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Now, there's the S&P making a new high up over 2%.

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We've got the Nasdaq 100 up 2. 75%.

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We've got the TSX 60 making a new high up over 1% on the week.

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Then looking at crude oil, and crude oil is still positive for the week, but giving

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up a lot of its gains, so it's starting to pull back a bit.

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Not a major concern so far.

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We're not near a daily sell signal coming

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into Friday's trading action, so not overly concerned.

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Now, the price of gold is up $23 and change on the week.

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It's giving up $16 to $20 in the pre-market this morning,

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so we may actually end the week flat for the price of gold.

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Now, there's a couple of stocks in the news.

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We talked about Apple yesterday having

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some potential legal problems, and it turned out that that's what happened.

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And Apple rolled over yesterday and is

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back on a daily sell signal trading up a couple of pennies in the pre-market.

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Now, Tesla is down over 3% in the pre-market.

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It's coming into Friday's trading action already on sell signal.

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It was looking like we were about to get a

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buy signal, but that's certainly not going to happen on Friday morning as we are

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trading down below the lower channel line once again.

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Now, I talked about the potential top in

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the mining sector the other day, and I may have been off by one day.

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Yesterday, the mining stocks moved higher and then reversed,

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and we've got bearish reversal signals, whether you're looking at the XGD on

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Toronto or the GDX or the GDXJ or the SIL, Silver Miners ETF.

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They all put in bearish reversal signals yesterday.

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Now, we're looking to see if we get fall through to the downside today.

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With the commodities trading lower this morning, that may turn out to be true.

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So instead of Wednesday being the top,

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Thursday may have turned out to be the top for the mining sector.

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Energy stocks are still doing really well.

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If you haven't already done so, it's

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probably a good idea to lock in some profits.

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Certainly, you don't want to We're going to totally liquidate a position here, but

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when we start off and look at the commodities, they're still doing okay.

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Crude oil put in a high the other day and it's starting to pull back.

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On Friday on the USO, we would need to close below $75.

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30 33 cents.

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So far, crude oil is trading slightly higher in the pre-market.

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Gasolines pulled back over the past couple of days, so no change there.

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Natural gas, unfortunately, still on a sell signal.

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That's pretty well the norm for natural gas.

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We may have put in a higher low over the past week, and that could

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certainly turn out to be a bullish sign going forward.

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Of course, the next thing we want to see

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is a higher high, and we're certainly not going to see that on Friday morning.

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Now, looking at the major US energy ETFs,

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the iShares Global Energy hit a new high yesterday.

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Then a new high for the XLE.

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Then if you're looking at the equipment makers, we saw a new high yesterday.

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The Explorers put a new high, and

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small-cap energy stocks also put in a new high on Thursday.

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Now, when we look at the individual

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stocks, and I'm going to measure what they've done over the last month, not from

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the last buy signal on each individual stock, it's easier to do it this way.

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Valero has been the big winner, followed

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by Marathon Petroleum, followed by Baker Hughes.

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Now, Baker Hughes is still negative for

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the year, but up a little over 15% for the month.

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Then we've got Marathon Oil up over 15%, Targa up over 13%, and then Chevron not

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doing well over the last month, is certainly still up on the year, but it's

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underperformed the rest of the US energy sector.

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Now, moving on to the Canadian energy sector.

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When we look at the XEG, we're up a little over 11% for the month.

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Of course, the 2X Horizons Beta Pro

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product should be up approximately twice that, and that is certainly the case.

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It's up at just under 22% for the month.

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Now, looking at individual stocks, Meg Energy has been the big winner, followed

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by Headwater, followed by Enterplus, then we've got Canadian Natural Resources.

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Now, this is the big elephant in the room.

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When we look at the market cap of Canadian energy stocks, you can see the Canadian

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Natural Resources is a little less than twice the value of Suncor, certainly more

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than twice the value of Imperial Oil and Cenovus.

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Then the stocks That's where we have a lot of things that traders like to trade most

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are certainly much smaller in market weight.

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When Canadian Natural Resources moves,

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that can move the TSX-60 and certainly move the TSX.

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Then we've got Tamarack, followed by Crescent Point, followed by Whitecap.

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Then a couple of stocks did not do well over the last month.

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Paramount Resources obviously has some stock-specific problems.

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Then we've got Birchcliff, which is certainly a very popular tradable stock.

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It is still on a sell signal Here's our

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final here, and that would change on Friday with a close above $5.

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50.

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In summary here, all of these energy stocks and ETFs are very overbought.

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Remember, we look for low-risk buying

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opportunities off the bottom of the Panic Zones with the Pressure Zone forming, and

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then we've moved all the way up to the top of the Panic Zones here.

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We're currently ranked at 10.

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That's also true for an ETF such as the XLE.

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This is not the time and place you want to add new money to the energy sector.

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This is the time and place where you want

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to lock in profits without completely liquidating your position.

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And certainly, if anybody's interested in

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buying energy stocks, this is not the time and place to do so.

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Every couple of months, you get a low-risk

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buying opportunity, and that is certainly not the case right now.

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Just enjoy it while it's happening, and it might be over fairly soon.

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Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.

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So far, it looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open, except

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maybe in the mining sector, where we may see some downward pressure.

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Enjoy the rest of your day. Enjoy your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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