Tuesday Market Outlook 02202024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.

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com I hope everyone had a wonderful long

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weekend and you're all rested and ready to go.

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In the pre-market this morning, stock index futures and crude oil are trading

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lower while gold is trading higher in the pre-market on Tuesday morning.

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Now, there's a lot going on in the pre-market this morning.

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One of the big headlines is Capital One is buying Discover.

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Capital One, of course, is trading lower

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this morning while Discover is trading higher in the pre-market.

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Market.

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Now, this week, we've got NVIDIA coming

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out with earnings, and that could certainly shake the market.

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We're also going to see the minutes from

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the last Fed meeting that, again, could certainly disturb the market.

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Now, looking at a weekly chart of the VIX,

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we're entering what is seasonally a strong period for the VIX.

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If we go back to 2023, you can see that we had a couple of weeks where we really

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spiked before reversing and coming down again.

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We're expecting that to happen once again in 2024.

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Of course, the VIX spiking is negative for stocks.

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We thought it started last Tuesday with a big spike in the VIX, but the market

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pulled back going into the end of the week.

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We're still long-term bullish on the

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market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.

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02 this coming Friday.

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Now, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you can see that spike on Tuesday, and

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then we retreated on Wednesday, Thursday, and moved up a little on Friday.

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But we're going to still be short term

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bearish on the market as long as the VIX continues to close above 13.

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40 on Tuesday.

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And you can see the lower trend line is starting to trend higher.

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So if we don't close below 13.

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40 on Tuesday, then It'll be a higher level Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

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Now, last week we were talking about the

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S&P 5,000, and we were able to break out above that and trade above it.

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We ended the week

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closing above it, but we're currently trading below that level level,

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so it's not holding in the pre-market on Tuesday morning.

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Now, once we broke through the S&P 500, 5,

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000 level, we were looking to see how long it would hold.

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Unfortunately, it's not holding that long.

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We are trading below that level in the pre-market.

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And looking at the SPY ETF, we closed Friday just below the $500 level, and we

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are trading lower in the pre-market this morning.

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Now, looking at a daily chart of the Dow

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Diamonds, we generated a sell signal on Tuesday.

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That was the only major index to do so.

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And then we came right back on Thursday, back on a buy signal.

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So we're coming into this week with all

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the major index ETFs on buy signals right now.

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The first thing we look for in the weekly charts, if we're going to see a pullback

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in the market as it closed below the previous week's low.

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For the Dow, since the October low, we haven't had that happen.

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For the S&P 500, we certainly did.

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And for the Nasdaq 100, we also had a week where we closed below the previous week's

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low, but we did not have any fall through to the downside.

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So anytime there's a one bar event, whether you're looking at a daily or a

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weekly chart, we're looking for a follow through in the same direction, and you can

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see we had complete reversals to the upside.

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So Again, it's the first thing you look for.

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It isn't all you look for, but it's the

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first sign that something is about to change, and then we look for confirmation.

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So we are looking for a close below last

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week's low this week to see if the market is ready to head lower.

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Now, one bullish sign last week was a

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lot of interest in mid-caps, small caps, and micro-caps.

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You can see the Russell 2000 trading up to the previous high, and the Russell

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micro-caps also trading up to the previous high.

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Then looking at the Canadian market, the iShows for the TSX-60 had a wild week.

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We traded down through the lower channel

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line and then ended the week making a new high.

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That was quite a wild week.

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One stock that's in the news this morning that's in the TSX-60 is Loblaw.

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They're out a big announcement, spending a lot of money, creating a lot of jobs.

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Let's see how the market reacts to that news.

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But as you can see, the stock is doing incredibly well at the moment.

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Now, what worked last week was actually Canadian energy stocks were the big

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winners, up over 4%, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal, but enough

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to extend the daily buy signal that started recently.

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We made a new high for this move and

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started to break out above the high from a couple of weeks ago.

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And we're stuck at the 200 and 100 day

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moving averages, looking to see if we can break out above that this week.

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US Energy stocks were also big winners, up 2.

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71% and back on a weekly buy signal.

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Now, going through the Dow 30 this morning, I noticed there were three Dow 30

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stocks that generated weekly sell signals last week, including Apple, Amgen, and

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Cisco, are all back on weekly sell signals.

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Now, a couple of stocks that are not on weekly sell signals.

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We've got Home Depot out with earnings,

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and they beat expectations, but not making investors happy this morning.

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And on the daily chart, we're looking at a new daily sell signal for Home Depot.

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On the other hand, we've got Walmart out

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with earnings, and Walmart is trading higher in the pre-market this morning.

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So Walmart's winning, Home Depot is losing on Tuesday morning.

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Now, Apple's back on a weekly sell signal,

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and I just want to look at Apple for a minute.

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We're looking at a daily chart here.

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You can see we peaked back in December.

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Then we drove down into year-end, and then

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we made a higher low, and then started to move up.

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Then we actually made a lower high,

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and after that lower high, we made a lower low.

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So that's a pattern that we want to break.

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Unfortunately, in February, it looks like

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we recently put in a lower high, and now we'll look to see if we can put in

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a lower low and see if that pattern continues.

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Now, there's a lot of support at the 181.

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25 level.

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Yes, We did below it several times, but pulled back very quickly.

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The 181.

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25 level is the high from back in October.

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Now, if we look at when we started to trade above that level back in the start

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of November, Most of the trading activity has been between 181.

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25 and 193. 75.

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Yes, we traded above it, but the majority

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of the trading activity has been between those two levels.

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If we start breaking down and take out that recent low, then 175 and 168.

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75 do come into play.

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So just be aware of that.

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Let's finish off looking at the world of commodities.

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Starting with the metals, we had a nice up week for copper.

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Not enough to give us a buy signal, but copper stocks were up nicely.

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Again, not enough to give us a weekly buy signal.

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Gold finished the week on a sell signal.

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It's reversing that in the pre-market this morning.

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The GLD, on the other hand, did not generate a sell signal.

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We need a close below 185.

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82 this coming Friday.

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And then looking at gold stocks, we had

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the GDX close slightly lower on the week after making a nice low last week.

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We had a new low for the XGD and then close slightly lower on the week.

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Similar situation for the junior gold miners.

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The price of silver was up nicely last

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week for both the Futures contract and for the SLV.

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Unfortunately, silver miners ended the week lower on the week, so the interest in

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silver miners needs to catch up with It might do that this week.

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Then looking at crude oil, we're still on a buy signal here trading higher.

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Unfortunately, natural gas was down another 10% and change.

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Looking at the seasonality of natural gas,

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this is a very weak period and the weakest period of the year.

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As we get into March, we'll hopefully look for the seasonality to kick in and for

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natural gas prices to start to move higher.

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Energy stocks, as we mentioned, were up on the week.

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Not enough to give us a weekly buy signal

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in Canada, but we did get a weekly buy signal in the US.

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Of course, energy stocks in the US, a lot

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of them have a global presence, which the Canadian energy stocks do not.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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So far, it looks like we're going to see

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some selling at the open on Tuesday morning.

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Have a great day.

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Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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And on Wednesday morning, we're going to

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take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

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