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00:00:00Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this
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00:00:04weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:07Let's start off with Little Housekeeping.
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00:00:09We are coming into a long weekend this Thursday.
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00:00:12US markets will be closed for Thanksgiving.
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00:00:15They'll be open half a day on Friday, which is usually a very a quiet day.
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00:00:20Now historically, going into a long weekend is bullish for the market.
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00:00:24And so even if there's a little downward pressure this week, that might be buffered
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00:00:29with the fact that we're coming into a long weekend.
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00:00:32Now we're going to take Thursday and Friday off.
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00:00:35Yes, the Canadian markets will be open on Thursday, but there will be very little
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00:00:38activity as there will be no adult supervision from the US market.
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00:00:44Let's start off looking at a couple of monthly charts.
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00:00:46And the TSX is up by 2.86 percent
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00:00:49for the month of November, while the S&P 500 is a little behind, up 2.41 percent.
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00:00:57Now, if we drill down to the weekly charts, the S&P 500 is on its second week
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00:01:01of a buy signal here and we pulled back a little down .69%.
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00:01:07Now the Nasdaq was down 1.18%. It is still on a weekly Sell Signal.
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00:01:12That has not changed for the Nasdaq.
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00:01:15Looking at the TSX, you can see that we had an inside week
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00:01:19and pulled back just about the same as the S&P 500.
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00:01:23Now when you're looking up, you're looking for possible areas of resistance.
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00:01:26Sometimes it's a previous peak, sometimes it's a trend line,
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00:01:30sometimes it's a moving average and sometimes it's our price targets.
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00:01:34Right now I know that there are many
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00:01:36market participants watching the SPY ETF at the 200 day moving average.
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00:01:41So we're back down to daily charts right
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00:01:43now and the 200 day is acting as resistance.
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00:01:46The 100 day moving average is acting as support.
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00:01:50So if that 100 day moving average
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00:01:52continues to act as support and we don't break down below that nice uptrend line,
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00:01:57things should be OK for the rest of November.
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00:02:01Of course, looking at the Nasdaq,
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00:02:03the Nasdaq has not been leading the market for the past month or so.
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00:02:07And we've got the Nasdaq using the 100 day
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00:02:10moving average as resistance and the 50 day moving average as support.
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00:02:15And then we've got a broader look at the US market.
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00:02:17Looking at the Ishares for the Russell 2000.
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00:02:20Again, we're using the 200 day moving averages, resistance,
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00:02:23the 100 day moving average as support, and we're having a nice uptrend line there.
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00:02:28And so as long as the moving averages
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00:02:31and the uptrend line continue to act as support, we should be okay.
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00:02:35Now, the TSX has a different problem.
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00:02:38It's trading above the moving averages,
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00:02:41using the two to day moving average as support.
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00:02:43And we'll take a look at the problem it's
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00:02:46got with the highs from back in the summer.
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00:02:49And then taking a broader look at the Canadian market.
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00:02:51Looking at the venture exchange.
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00:02:52It is still using the 50 day moving average as resistance.
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00:02:57Now just like the TSX, the Dow has been trading above the 200 day moving average.
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00:03:02And in both cases, both the Ishares for the TSX 60
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00:03:05and the Dow Diamonds have not hit the summer highs just yet.
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00:03:10Our next mathematical target for the Ishears for the TSX 60 is 31.25.
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00:03:15For the Dow diamonds it's 343.75.
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00:03:19But it's important to remember
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00:03:20that the market faded just below those levels back in August.
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00:03:24And so if we were to hit our price targets
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00:03:26that would give us new highs for this move.
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00:03:29But we seem to be fading right now.
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00:03:31And if you look at the Dow Diamonds you
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00:03:34can see we have a new early warning signal up there at the top of the screen and we
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00:03:38also have a new early warning signal for the eyeshares for the TSX 60.
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00:03:42So that gives me a little bit of concern.
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00:03:44There has not been any aggressive selling just yet.
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00:03:47There certainly was on Thursday,
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00:03:49but we had a reversal in the market going into the close.
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00:03:52So no damage has been done so far.
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00:03:55But I would certainly want to stop looking
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00:03:57for buying opportunities up at this level and I'd start looking for selling
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00:04:01opportunities even though I don't have a reason or catalyst to do so just yet.
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00:04:07It's important to get mentally prepared.
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00:04:10One of the tools we help get,
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00:04:12to help us get mentally prepared, of course, is to look at the VIX.
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00:04:14The VIX had an inside week closed higher on the week.
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00:04:18We need a close this coming Friday above
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00:04:2029.82 to change our long term view on the market from bullish to bearish
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00:04:26and then on a short term basis coming into Monday's trading action.
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00:04:30If we get a close on Monday above 25 51, that would certainly change our mind
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00:04:35on a short term basis from being bullish to bearish.
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00:04:39Now we've recently started to focus
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00:04:41on the correlation between the US dollar index and the stock market.
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00:04:45As the US dollar index started to pull back over the past couple of months,
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00:04:49the stock market started to move up, still holding 106.25.
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00:04:54And as the stock market moved lower this week, the US dollar index closed higher.
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00:04:59We're still holding the 200 day moving
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00:05:01average and as long as that holds, that maybe bears for the stock market.
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00:05:05If the US dollar index starts to break down below the 200 day moving average
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00:05:09and the 106.25 level, of course that could be positive for stocks.
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00:05:14On Friday we had an inside day, so not expecting a buy signal anytime soon.
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00:05:19But if the US dollar index just continues
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00:05:22to move higher, that could put downward pressure on the stock market.
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00:05:27Let's finish off today's presentation taking a quick look at commodities.
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00:05:30And these charts are not going to be very
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00:05:32bullish for the Canadian stock market, but they could help fight inflation so,
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00:05:37first of all, we're looking at the price of copper.
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00:05:39And copper had a nice big bearish reversal week.
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00:05:42So did the price of gold, down $22, and so did the price of silver.
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00:05:47Now, bearish reversal weeks are one week events or 1 bar events.
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00:05:52They still need to be confirmed.
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00:05:53So we need to see a lower close this coming Friday for each of these metals
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00:05:58to tell us that the top is in for this particular move.
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00:06:01That hasn't happened yet.
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00:06:03But while we're waiting to see if that happens or not, you really want to be
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00:06:07on your guard if you're involved in stocks related to any of these metals.
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00:06:12Now, looking at crude oil.
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00:06:14Crude oil is down 9.3% on the week, so that's certainly helping fight inflation.
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00:06:20We're trying to hold a recent low there at $75.
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00:06:23If we start breaking 75, then 62.50 comes into play.
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00:06:28And there's natural gas up 7.72% of the week.
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00:06:31Inside week. Certainly no new trend for natural gas.
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00:06:36Then looking at a couple of commodities that are helping fight inflation.
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00:06:39
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00:06:41Another big down week for coffee making.
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00:06:43A new low for this move and a new low for 2022.
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00:06:45And then we've got lumber.
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00:06:48We like to check in on lumber and see what's going on.
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00:06:51Lumber broke the $500 level a while ago.
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00:06:55If we look back to the left hand side of the screen, you can see the nice big
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00:06:58high that we made when everybody was panicking back in 2021.
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00:07:01In 2022, we made a lower high and now we're making lower lows.
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00:07:07There is a big gap between 500 and 250.
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00:07:10Of course, you can do the math or you can
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00:07:11just look at the daily charts and 437.50 was the next target.
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00:07:15And then 375.
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00:07:17If we take out the lows from back
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00:07:19in September, then 375 is certainly a legitimate target to the downside.
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00:07:25OK, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:07:28Again, this is a holiday shortened week in the US.
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00:07:31That usually has a bullish bias to it.
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00:07:34Now, a bullish bias does not guarantee
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00:07:36that we close the week on a positive note, but it certainly can help dampen
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00:07:40the spirits of people wanting to sell into the market this week.
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00:07:45So it could buffer some of any downward pressure we see this coming week.
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00:07:51Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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00:07:52Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.