Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 20221120

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Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com with this

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weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.

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Let's start off with Little Housekeeping.

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We are coming into a long weekend this Thursday.

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US markets will be closed for Thanksgiving.

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They'll be open half a day on Friday, which is usually a very a quiet day.

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Now historically, going into a long weekend is bullish for the market.

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And so even if there's a little downward pressure this week, that might be buffered

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with the fact that we're coming into a long weekend.

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Now we're going to take Thursday and Friday off.

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Yes, the Canadian markets will be open on Thursday, but there will be very little

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activity as there will be no adult supervision from the US market.

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Let's start off looking at a couple of monthly charts.

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And the TSX is up by 2.86 percent

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for the month of November, while the S&P 500 is a little behind, up 2.41 percent.

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Now, if we drill down to the weekly charts, the S&P 500 is on its second week

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of a buy signal here and we pulled back a little down .69%.

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Now the Nasdaq was down 1.18%. It is still on a weekly Sell Signal.

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That has not changed for the Nasdaq.

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Looking at the TSX, you can see that we had an inside week

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and pulled back just about the same as the S&P 500.

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Now when you're looking up, you're looking for possible areas of resistance.

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Sometimes it's a previous peak, sometimes it's a trend line,

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sometimes it's a moving average and sometimes it's our price targets.

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Right now I know that there are many

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market participants watching the SPY ETF at the 200 day moving average.

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So we're back down to daily charts right

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now and the 200 day is acting as resistance.

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The 100 day moving average is acting as support.

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So if that 100 day moving average

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continues to act as support and we don't break down below that nice uptrend line,

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things should be OK for the rest of November.

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Of course, looking at the Nasdaq,

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the Nasdaq has not been leading the market for the past month or so.

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And we've got the Nasdaq using the 100 day

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moving average as resistance and the 50 day moving average as support.

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And then we've got a broader look at the US market.

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Looking at the Ishares for the Russell 2000.

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Again, we're using the 200 day moving averages, resistance,

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the 100 day moving average as support, and we're having a nice uptrend line there.

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And so as long as the moving averages

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and the uptrend line continue to act as support, we should be okay.

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Now, the TSX has a different problem.

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It's trading above the moving averages,

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using the two to day moving average as support.

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And we'll take a look at the problem it's

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got with the highs from back in the summer.

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And then taking a broader look at the Canadian market.

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Looking at the venture exchange.

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It is still using the 50 day moving average as resistance.

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Now just like the TSX, the Dow has been trading above the 200 day moving average.

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And in both cases, both the Ishares for the TSX 60

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and the Dow Diamonds have not hit the summer highs just yet.

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Our next mathematical target for the Ishears for the TSX 60 is 31.25.

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For the Dow diamonds it's 343.75.

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But it's important to remember

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that the market faded just below those levels back in August.

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And so if we were to hit our price targets

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that would give us new highs for this move.

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But we seem to be fading right now.

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And if you look at the Dow Diamonds you

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can see we have a new early warning signal up there at the top of the screen and we

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also have a new early warning signal for the eyeshares for the TSX 60.

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So that gives me a little bit of concern.

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There has not been any aggressive selling just yet.

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There certainly was on Thursday,

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but we had a reversal in the market going into the close.

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So no damage has been done so far.

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But I would certainly want to stop looking

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for buying opportunities up at this level and I'd start looking for selling

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opportunities even though I don't have a reason or catalyst to do so just yet.

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It's important to get mentally prepared.

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One of the tools we help get,

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to help us get mentally prepared, of course, is to look at the VIX.

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The VIX had an inside week closed higher on the week.

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We need a close this coming Friday above

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29.82 to change our long term view on the market from bullish to bearish

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and then on a short term basis coming into Monday's trading action.

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If we get a close on Monday above 25 51, that would certainly change our mind

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on a short term basis from being bullish to bearish.

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Now we've recently started to focus

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on the correlation between the US dollar index and the stock market.

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As the US dollar index started to pull back over the past couple of months,

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the stock market started to move up, still holding 106.25.

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And as the stock market moved lower this week, the US dollar index closed higher.

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We're still holding the 200 day moving

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average and as long as that holds, that maybe bears for the stock market.

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If the US dollar index starts to break down below the 200 day moving average

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and the 106.25 level, of course that could be positive for stocks.

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On Friday we had an inside day, so not expecting a buy signal anytime soon.

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But if the US dollar index just continues

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to move higher, that could put downward pressure on the stock market.

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Let's finish off today's presentation taking a quick look at commodities.

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And these charts are not going to be very

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bullish for the Canadian stock market, but they could help fight inflation so,

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first of all, we're looking at the price of copper.

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And copper had a nice big bearish reversal week.

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So did the price of gold, down $22, and so did the price of silver.

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Now, bearish reversal weeks are one week events or 1 bar events.

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They still need to be confirmed.

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So we need to see a lower close this coming Friday for each of these metals

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to tell us that the top is in for this particular move.

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That hasn't happened yet.

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But while we're waiting to see if that happens or not, you really want to be

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on your guard if you're involved in stocks related to any of these metals.

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Now, looking at crude oil.

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Crude oil is down 9.3% on the week, so that's certainly helping fight inflation.

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We're trying to hold a recent low there at $75.

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If we start breaking 75, then 62.50 comes into play.

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And there's natural gas up 7.72% of the week.

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Inside week. Certainly no new trend for natural gas.

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Then looking at a couple of commodities that are helping fight inflation.

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Another big down week for coffee making.

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A new low for this move and a new low for 2022.

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And then we've got lumber.

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We like to check in on lumber and see what's going on.

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Lumber broke the $500 level a while ago.

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If we look back to the left hand side of the screen, you can see the nice big

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high that we made when everybody was panicking back in 2021.

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In 2022, we made a lower high and now we're making lower lows.

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There is a big gap between 500 and 250.

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Of course, you can do the math or you can

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just look at the daily charts and 437.50 was the next target.

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And then 375.

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If we take out the lows from back

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in September, then 375 is certainly a legitimate target to the downside.

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OK, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Again, this is a holiday shortened week in the US.

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That usually has a bullish bias to it.

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Now, a bullish bias does not guarantee

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that we close the week on a positive note, but it certainly can help dampen

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the spirits of people wanting to sell into the market this week.

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So it could buffer some of any downward pressure we see this coming week.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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