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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:06Com. In the premarket this morning, things are
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00:00:09looking a little gloomy for Tuesday morning.
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00:00:11Stock index futures are down across the
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00:00:13board, being led lower by the the Nasdaq, DOW futures currently down 255 points.
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00:00:20Let's start off today's presentation looking at the VIX.
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00:00:23The VIX traded up above the upper channel
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00:00:27line on Friday before pulling back and actually closing lower on the day.
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00:00:32The VIX trading in the channel, of course, is in the neutral zone.
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00:00:35We're looking for a close above
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00:00:3720.55 on Monday, and I'm pretty sure we're going to get that.
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00:00:41Whether we get a breakout above 21.88, of course, is yet to be determined.
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00:00:47Now, if we look at the mid term chart, you
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00:00:48can see we're looking for a close above 22.20 on Tuesday.
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00:00:53Then above that, to break out above the
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00:00:55fly paper channel, we really need to start trading above 23.50. Now, looking at this
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00:01:01chart, here's where the VIX started to break down back in October.
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00:01:05And if I just hold my mouse up
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00:01:08there, we'll take a look at what happened to the DOW.
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00:01:10And that's the same time that the
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00:01:12DOW started to break out above the Fly Paper channel.
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00:01:15Now, it was the DOW that led the market
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00:01:17higher and it made a high in early December right at this point here.
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00:01:23And then basically, we've been treading water ever since.
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00:01:26Now, the rest of the market didn't do that.
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00:01:28In fact, the rest of the market not only played catch up to the DOW but had a big
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00:01:31sell off into the end of the year before coming right back.
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00:01:35When we look at the DOW Diamonds, you can see we dip through the lower channel line
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00:01:40on Friday, still looking for a close on Tuesday up below
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00:01:45337.26. Now, when we look at the other major indices, you can see
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00:01:49they trailed the DOW up and then had a nice more significant
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00:01:52sell off into the end of the year and then a more significant rally into 2023.
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00:01:58That rally looks like it's coming to an end of the day.
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00:02:01We've got the QQQ's looking for a close on
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00:02:05Tuesday below $300.26. We do have the Semiconductors
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00:02:09back on a sell signal as of Friday's close.
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00:02:12That's not a good sign for the QQQ's.
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00:02:16Then looking at the Canadian market, the i
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00:02:18shares for the TSX 60 are now back on a sell signal as of Friday's close.
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00:02:23Big reason for that was the sell off in crude oil on Friday.
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00:02:27Canadian Energy stocks ended the day back
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00:02:30on a sell signal down at the recent lows from a couple of weeks ago.
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00:02:34We were down 3.55 % in Canada and US energy stocks were down 3.56 %.
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00:02:41They started to dip a little below the
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00:02:43recent lows, so wouldn't be surprised if we continue lower on Tuesday.
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00:02:49Weakness in Energy stocks joins other commodities already on sell signals.
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00:02:54Gold stocks have been on a sell signal for a couple of weeks now.
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00:02:56We've got the GDX making a new low on Friday, and
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00:03:01we've got the X GD also making a new low on Friday.
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00:03:06Now, I'm keeping a close eye on bank stocks to see if they break down.
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00:03:10That, of course, would be a negative overall indicator for the market.
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00:03:15We've got US bank stocks dipping below the lower channel line on Friday.
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00:03:19Canadian bank stocks ended the day with an
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00:03:21inside day, so a day of indecision for Canadian banks.
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00:03:25And of course, we can finish off here with
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00:03:27a couple of things that could affect the market.
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00:03:29US Dollar Index made a new high for this
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00:03:31move on Friday before closing, unchanged on the day.
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00:03:36And then looking at the bond
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00:03:37market, the XBB made a new low on Thursday while the TLT, while emerging
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00:03:43markets and junk bonds all made new lows on Friday before recovering.
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00:03:48Now, bond yields have continued to rise.
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00:03:50That, of course, can put pressure on the stock market.
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00:03:52The 5 year is leading
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00:03:54the bond yields higher than we've got the 10 year and the 30 year.
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00:03:58So it is the 5 year that is leading the yields higher at the moment and short
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00:04:03term rates over long term rates, banks don't necessarily like that.
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00:04:09Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:04:11Looking for some selling at the open.
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00:04:13We've been anticipating selling for the past few weeks, and
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00:04:17it looks like it's actually going to take place on Tuesday.
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00:04:21Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:04:22Next time you'll hear my voice
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00:04:24is on Wednesday morning.