Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 06042023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen White side here from the

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uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.

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Well, it's Sunday evening.

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Stock Index futures have started to trade.

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So far, they're trading down below fair value, but not by too much, so they

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haven't been overly spooked over the weekend.

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Commodities are mixed.

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We've got crude oil higher while gold is lower on a Sunday evening.

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Now, Friday turned out to be an incredibly interesting day.

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It all started off with some very

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impressive employment numbers out of the US.

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Some of the previous numbers reported this year were also revised higher.

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That sent the stock market heading sharply higher.

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It wasn't that big a deal at the open, but

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the market certainly continued higher throughout the day.

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So there's the DAO Diamond's back on a buy signal.

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There's the iShares for the TSX 60 closing one penny above the upper channel line

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right at the bottom of that open gap from a couple of weeks ago.

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And we also saw quite wide participation on Friday.

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There's the iShares for the Russell 2000

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popping up, closing above the previous high from a couple of weeks ago.

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So that's back on a buy signal.

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We've got microcaps back on a buy signal.

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Now in 2023, the story, of course, has

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been all about the big cap technology stocks.

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So it was quite interesting on Friday to see all boats rise.

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That could be the start of something new.

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But on Friday, I think stock market investors forgot

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what story was being told, what movie they were watching right now.

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What happened on Friday was a bit like

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watching the sound of music and right in the middle of the movie, aliens attack.

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That's what happened on Friday because the

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Fed is still in charge and they want to fight inflation.

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And what they want to see is the economy slowing down.

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They don't necessarily have to run us into recession, but they want to see evidence

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that inflation is pulling back and the economy is slowing down.

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And the numbers they saw on Friday aren't going to help that story at all.

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So I'm not sure how much further the stock market can go up from here.

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Some people are talking what happened on Friday is a blow off top.

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Only time will tell.

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We've been looking at the seasonality charts for the past few weeks about the

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TSX, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, and they all tell us basically the same thing.

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Historically, markets peak in the first

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week of June and then pull back into the third week of June.

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Is that what happened on Friday?

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Was that the peak, the seasonal peak?

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Seasonality charts, they're averages, basically.

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What you don't see here is the one year

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where the stock market had a huge move up in the month of June, and you also don't

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see that one year where the stock market had a huge pullback in the month of June.

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This is all averaged out, so it just gives

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us an indication of historically what could happen.

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But of course, this year is different than

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previous years in a lot of ways, and we never had AI before to deal with,

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and big cap tech stocks leading the market higher.

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That doesn't happen all the time.

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But here we are in 2023,

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ending the first week of June, and this is what we're expecting on a seasonal basis.

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Now, looking at the VIX, if you're a long

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term investor, the VIX has continued to move lower.

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It was down 18.66 % on the week.

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And so we would go from being long term bullish to being long term bearish if the

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VIX were to close above $20.57 this coming Friday.

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If you're trading the market, then on

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Monday will remain bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above

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$18.48. And you can see the upper channel line is starting to curl down.

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So if we don't close above that level on

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Monday, when we come back here on Tuesday, that upper channel line will be lower.

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Now, what happened this week?

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Is it the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

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We don't know. Only time will tell.

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But it is certainly quite interesting to see how the market overreacted on Friday.

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Now, moving on to the weekly ETF charts.

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Starting off with the SPY, it was up 1.88 % on the week.

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Heading towards our next daily price

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target of 429.69. The high on Friday was 428.74, so pretty close to it.

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Then our next daily target is 437.50, which is also our next weekly target.

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Just below that is the high from last summer at 431.78. So to get

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to 437.50, we've got to get through 431.78, and that's only a couple of

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dollars away from where we closed on Friday.

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Looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq does not have that target.

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That target was already taken out a couple of weeks ago.

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And so here we continue to move higher.

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Our next daily target is 359.38. And if we

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can take that out, our next daily and weekly target is up there at 375.

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And you can see that we peaked just below that level back at the start of 2022.

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Looking at the ishares for the TSX 60, we traded up to the lower channel line, so

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we're up 0.43 % on the week, certainly no major change in trend.

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We did make a new low and reverse off that.

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So we'll have to see if that new low can hold.

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Of course, we've been watching the chip

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sector, which had a huge move up for the previous two weeks.

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This week it was very quiet down a little over half a %.

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And then NVIDIA, the big winner from the

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previous week, was up just under 1 % on the week after making a new high.

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And it did trade up above 400, then came

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back and closed at 393.27. So it looks like $400 is acting as resistance.

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Now, the financials were all up across the board.

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No new buy signals for US financials or US

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banks or regional banks or broker dealers or insurance companies.

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They were all up nicely on the week, but certainly no long term changes in trend.

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That is also true for Canadian financials and Canadian banks.

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In both cases, they made new lows for this move and banks certainly made a new low.

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They are still holding the lows from October of last year.

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Those haven't broken just yet.

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Next up, let's take a look at commodity prices.

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We saw a copper move up this week at 1.24

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%, still trading and closing below the lower channel line.

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Gold was up 0.33 % while silver was stronger up 0.16 %, no change in trend.

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You should be able to find bacon on sale while hamburger meat and the rest of the

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beef products are going to be quite expensive this summer.

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Then looking at lumber, things are fairly quiet inside week for the price of lumber,

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still on a sell signal, no change there, and no change in trend for the energy

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sector with crude oil down 1.16 % and natural gas down another 10 % this week.

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Natural gas still in a long term downtrend.

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Let's finish off this weekend's presentation with a little life lesson.

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If you've been with us for any length of

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time, in fact, if you've been with us for all of the 23 years we've been doing this,

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you know that I believe that news is noise.

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All we're really here to do is follow the money and ignore everything else.

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Now, I do keep up on the news because I have a public persona.

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Reporters call here and ask me for my

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opinion on things, and I want to have something intelligent to say to them.

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So I do keep up, but I would never use

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news as a catalyst to move my money in or out of the market.

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Now, here's a perfect example out of today's news.

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I watch what's going on in Argentina because we have previous employees that

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live there and they're going through some economic hell at the moment.

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It's just probably the worst in the world, except there might be a couple of African

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countries going through a worse economic crisis at the moment.

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If you go to Google and just type in

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Argentina economy, here's the type of headlines you're going to get.

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And really, the big thing is that

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inflation is up at 100 %, interest rates are at 100 %.

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This economy is falling apart.

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People can't afford rent.

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There's thousands of people sleeping in the airport in Buenas Ares.

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And it's just a horrible, horrible, horrible, horrible human tragedy.

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What does that mean for you and I as investors?

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Well, Argentina is the best performing market in the world at the moment.

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Year to date, the market is up 74 %.

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Now, how do you match that up

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with the news headlines that we just talked about and the reality?

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The reality on the street is they're dealing with 100 % inflation.

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Their currency is worthless.

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The US dollar is the currency of choice for anybody there, not

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condone by the government or the banking system.

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But if you want to go there and you want

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to buy something, it's best to do it in US dollars than it is in local currency.

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And with all that economic crisis, with all those negative headlines, we are

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talking about the best performing stock market in the world in 2023, up over 74 %.

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So that's the end of today's Life lesson.

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That's all for this weekend's presentation.

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Stock index futures are down slightly on

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Sunday night, so nothing's overly spooked the market at all.

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I'm not totally convinced that Friday was the start of anything new.

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I think Friday may be the end of the current up move in the market.

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It might have been a blow off top.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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Only time will tell. Have a great day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. it.

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