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00:00:00Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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00:00:04uptrend.com in the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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00:00:08We've got stock index futures slightly above fair value.
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00:00:12The market is waiting for employment numbers to come out at 830.
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00:00:15And then we've also got some other
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00:00:17economic numbers coming out between 8:30 and 10:00 A.m
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00:00:21that could add to pre market volatility.
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00:00:25Let's start off today's presentation, looking at weekly charts.
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00:00:28I just printed these off this morning to see where we are sitting.
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00:00:32The DOW is up just a third of a percent on the week.
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00:00:35The S&P 500 is up zero point 84%, so getting close to 1% gain so far.
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00:00:42The high from earlier this year was up at 4195.
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00:00:4644. So as we get closer to 4200, we know that
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00:00:50there is resistance up there as the recent high did not retest the 4195.
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00:00:5744 level.
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00:00:58So, so far we're still heading in that direction.
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00:01:01We'll have to see what the market does if it can get back to that level.
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00:01:05Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher.
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00:01:10And as you can see, we're getting very close to the high from 2022.
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00:01:15Looking at the Russell 2000, we're up nearly 2% on the week.
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00:01:19Not sure if you saw this headline the
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00:01:20other day, but Apple is now worth more than all of the Russell 2000 put together.
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00:01:26Now Apple is not my friend at the moment.
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00:01:29For the last couple of weeks, we've been trying to hit 175.
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00:01:33That's our next price target.
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00:01:35We've got as high as 174. 59.
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00:01:38And remember, what we call price targets, the rest of the world calls resistance.
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00:01:42And resistance is holding Apple in check at the moment.
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00:01:46Looking down on Thursday, and Apple has
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00:01:49traded in the channel for the past couple of days.
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00:01:52We need a close below 170.
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00:01:5445 to kick us out of the remainder of our Apple position on Thursday.
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00:01:59Then looking at the Canadian market, the
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00:02:01TSX is down 0.6%. So a little over half a percent.
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00:02:05And that has a lot to do with mining stocks.
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00:02:08And the Venture Exchange is down just a tick, under 1% for the week.
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00:02:13Now, we've seen a lot of pops and drops over the last couple of weeks.
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00:02:16That tells me that investors are on edge.
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00:02:19They're not willing to put money into stocks ahead of earnings reports.
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00:02:24One that was a real mystery on Tuesday was Home Depot, which led the DOW lower.
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00:02:31And then on Wednesday, complete reversal and it led the DOW higher.
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00:02:35So investors really squeamish right now.
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00:02:38And that is a sign, of course, of a
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00:02:40possible recession, of possible bank failures.
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00:02:43There's all kinds of stuff going on.
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00:02:45And of course, there could be a black swan out there that we're not aware of.
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00:02:50Looking at technology stocks, again,
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00:02:52they're leading the market higher on Wednesday.
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00:02:55And we see that semiconductors came back a
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00:02:58couple of days ago and they had a big update on Wednesday.
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00:03:02Now, when we look at the winners and
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00:03:03losers from Wednesday, it was the regional banks were the biggest winners.
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00:03:08And look down, see how far you have to get on our list of ETFs before we get to a
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00:03:12Canadian sector that moved up on Wednesday.
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00:03:16So Regional Banks, the big winners on
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00:03:18Wednesday, up over 7% on the day, being led higher by Comerica, the top performing
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00:03:25stock on the SP 500, and the second was Zion's.
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00:03:28Both back on buy signals as of Wednesday's close.
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00:03:32Canadian Western Bank, the only real
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00:03:35regional bank in Canada, has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now.
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00:03:39So no change in trend there.
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00:03:41And then looking at the SPDR Bank, ETF
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00:03:44back on a buy signal, spider Financials back on a buy signal.
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00:03:47Then looking at Canadian banks, no change.
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00:03:50We were on a buy signal.
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00:03:52Then it reversed and we're still on a sell signal.
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00:03:55And the Canadian financials are also still on a sell signal.
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00:03:59Now, we recently talked about the TD Bank.
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00:04:01It was in the news, the media was reporting that the TD Bank
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00:04:06was the biggest shorted bank stock in the world.
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00:04:10That was April 5.
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00:04:11So we don't know exactly when they put on those short positions.
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00:04:16I just concerned that when somebody sees a
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00:04:18headline like this that they also might want to short the TD Bank.
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00:04:23And of course, anytime we talk about shorting, what we're talking about is
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00:04:28we're coming off the top of the panic zones.
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00:04:30The early warning signal has gone off the
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00:04:34chart, has start to turn color from blue to red.
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00:04:37We get a sell signal on the right side chart.
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00:04:39That is when you short a stock down here is when the public shorts a stock.
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00:04:44Why?
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00:04:44Because now they've got enough psychological support to help them
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00:04:49psychologically pull the trigger and short a stock.
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00:04:52Now, April 5 was right in here and that's
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00:04:56when the news reports came out and the stock started to move up from that point.
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00:05:00So a lot of times it's buy the rumor, sell the news.
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00:05:04And if the news was that there were billions of dollars of TD Bank stock
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00:05:09shorted, that that was the news and you buy the rumor and you sell the news.
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00:05:16And if the news was that the stock has been shorted, how do you sell that?
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00:05:20Well, you buy the stock, you do the opposite of the news story.
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00:05:24And that's exactly what happened so far.
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00:05:27Let's finish off looking at commodities.
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00:05:29We've got the USO back on a buy signal, we've got Gasoline back on a buy signal.
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00:05:34That's rather unfortunate as we get towards the summer, we don't
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00:05:39want to see gasoline prices rising going into the summer, do we?
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00:05:42Now, natural gas is also on a buy signal,
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00:05:45so no change in trends for gasoline or natural gas.
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00:05:49We've got a big move up though in crude oil back on a buy signal.
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00:05:53That should help the energy stocks, which
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00:05:55were up yesterday, but still on a sell signal for the Ishares for the TSX Energy
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00:06:00sector and the SPDR ETF for the US energy sector
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00:06:04both up nicely on Wednesday, but not enough to give us a buy signal.
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00:06:10Now the price of gold has been coming down this week.
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00:06:13It is sitting just below 2,000.
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00:06:15You can see that this is where the recent lows were put in.
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00:06:19If we look at what the pros and the public are doing, nobody really wants gold to
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00:06:23move away from $2,000, but it is starting to slip below it.
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00:06:28The price of silver a little more committed to trading below $25.
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00:06:33As you can see, the pros gave up control a
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00:06:35few days ago and so silver traders more comfortable with the silver below 25.
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00:06:41When we look at the price of gold and silver, they both declined quite a bit
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00:06:46from the start of February into late February.
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00:06:50And what was going on at that time?
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00:06:52Well, the US dollar was rising and look at what's going on right now.
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00:06:56The US dollar has started to move up.
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00:06:58So that could be the reason that precious
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00:07:01metals have been pulling back over the last couple of days.
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00:07:05And of course, with precious metals
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00:07:07falling, it's harder to see gold and silver stocks rise.
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00:07:11And so there's the GDX making a new low for this move.
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00:07:14There's the XGD also making a new low for this move on Wednesday.
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00:07:19Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:23Have a great day.
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00:07:24Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.