Stock Market Timing Television - 05182023

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Good morning everyone, and welcome to Thursday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from the
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uptrend.com in the pre market this morning, things are fairly quiet.
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We've got stock index futures slightly above fair value.
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The market is waiting for employment numbers to come out at 830.
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And then we've also got some other
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economic numbers coming out between 8:30 and 10:00 A.m
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that could add to pre market volatility.
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Let's start off today's presentation, looking at weekly charts.
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I just printed these off this morning to see where we are sitting.
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The DOW is up just a third of a percent on the week.
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The S&P 500 is up zero point 84%, so getting close to 1% gain so far.
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The high from earlier this year was up at 4195.
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44. So as we get closer to 4200, we know that
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there is resistance up there as the recent high did not retest the 4195.
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44 level.
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So, so far we're still heading in that direction.
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We'll have to see what the market does if it can get back to that level.
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Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq continues to lead the market higher.
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And as you can see, we're getting very close to the high from 2022.
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Looking at the Russell 2000, we're up nearly 2% on the week.
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Not sure if you saw this headline the
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other day, but Apple is now worth more than all of the Russell 2000 put together.
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Now Apple is not my friend at the moment.
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For the last couple of weeks, we've been trying to hit 175.
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That's our next price target.
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We've got as high as 174. 59.
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And remember, what we call price targets, the rest of the world calls resistance.
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And resistance is holding Apple in check at the moment.
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Looking down on Thursday, and Apple has
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traded in the channel for the past couple of days.
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We need a close below 170.
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45 to kick us out of the remainder of our Apple position on Thursday.
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Then looking at the Canadian market, the
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TSX is down 0.6%. So a little over half a percent.
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And that has a lot to do with mining stocks.
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And the Venture Exchange is down just a tick, under 1% for the week.
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Now, we've seen a lot of pops and drops over the last couple of weeks.
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That tells me that investors are on edge.
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They're not willing to put money into stocks ahead of earnings reports.
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One that was a real mystery on Tuesday was Home Depot, which led the DOW lower.
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And then on Wednesday, complete reversal and it led the DOW higher.
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So investors really squeamish right now.
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And that is a sign, of course, of a
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possible recession, of possible bank failures.
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There's all kinds of stuff going on.
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And of course, there could be a black swan out there that we're not aware of.
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Looking at technology stocks, again,
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they're leading the market higher on Wednesday.
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And we see that semiconductors came back a
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couple of days ago and they had a big update on Wednesday.
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Now, when we look at the winners and
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losers from Wednesday, it was the regional banks were the biggest winners.
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And look down, see how far you have to get on our list of ETFs before we get to a
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Canadian sector that moved up on Wednesday.
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So Regional Banks, the big winners on
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Wednesday, up over 7% on the day, being led higher by Comerica, the top performing
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stock on the SP 500, and the second was Zion's.
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Both back on buy signals as of Wednesday's close.
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Canadian Western Bank, the only real
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regional bank in Canada, has been on a buy signal for a couple of weeks now.
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So no change in trend there.
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And then looking at the SPDR Bank, ETF
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back on a buy signal, spider Financials back on a buy signal.
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Then looking at Canadian banks, no change.
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We were on a buy signal.
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Then it reversed and we're still on a sell signal.
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And the Canadian financials are also still on a sell signal.
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Now, we recently talked about the TD Bank.
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It was in the news, the media was reporting that the TD Bank
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was the biggest shorted bank stock in the world.
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That was April 5.
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So we don't know exactly when they put on those short positions.
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I just concerned that when somebody sees a
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headline like this that they also might want to short the TD Bank.
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And of course, anytime we talk about shorting, what we're talking about is
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we're coming off the top of the panic zones.
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The early warning signal has gone off the
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chart, has start to turn color from blue to red.
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We get a sell signal on the right side chart.
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That is when you short a stock down here is when the public shorts a stock.
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Why?
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Because now they've got enough psychological support to help them
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psychologically pull the trigger and short a stock.
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Now, April 5 was right in here and that's
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when the news reports came out and the stock started to move up from that point.
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So a lot of times it's buy the rumor, sell the news.
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And if the news was that there were billions of dollars of TD Bank stock
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shorted, that that was the news and you buy the rumor and you sell the news.
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And if the news was that the stock has been shorted, how do you sell that?
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Well, you buy the stock, you do the opposite of the news story.
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And that's exactly what happened so far.
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Let's finish off looking at commodities.
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We've got the USO back on a buy signal, we've got Gasoline back on a buy signal.
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That's rather unfortunate as we get towards the summer, we don't
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want to see gasoline prices rising going into the summer, do we?
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Now, natural gas is also on a buy signal,
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so no change in trends for gasoline or natural gas.
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We've got a big move up though in crude oil back on a buy signal.
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That should help the energy stocks, which
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were up yesterday, but still on a sell signal for the Ishares for the TSX Energy
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sector and the SPDR ETF for the US energy sector
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both up nicely on Wednesday, but not enough to give us a buy signal.
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Now the price of gold has been coming down this week.
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It is sitting just below 2,000.
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You can see that this is where the recent lows were put in.
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If we look at what the pros and the public are doing, nobody really wants gold to
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move away from $2,000, but it is starting to slip below it.
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The price of silver a little more committed to trading below $25.
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As you can see, the pros gave up control a
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few days ago and so silver traders more comfortable with the silver below 25.
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When we look at the price of gold and silver, they both declined quite a bit
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from the start of February into late February.
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And what was going on at that time?
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Well, the US dollar was rising and look at what's going on right now.
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The US dollar has started to move up.
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So that could be the reason that precious
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metals have been pulling back over the last couple of days.
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And of course, with precious metals
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falling, it's harder to see gold and silver stocks rise.
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And so there's the GDX making a new low for this move.
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There's the XGD also making a new low for this move on Wednesday.
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Okay folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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