Stock Market Timing Television - 20230104

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00:00:00

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning.
00:00:03

It's Stephen Whiteside here from The
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UpTrend.com. Well, the market got off to a rough start on Tuesday.
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There were some things that moved higher,
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including the VIX, which is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday's close.
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We've got the US.
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Dollar index sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal.
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And then we've got gold moving higher on Tuesday.
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Making a new high for this move.
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Our mathematical target right now is 1843.
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75.
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If we can take out yesterday's high, then
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1875 is both our next daily and weekly price target.
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With the price of gold moving up, we had
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gold stocks moving up on both sides of the border.
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There's the GDX moving up.
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There's the Ishares for the TSX Global
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Gold Index making a new closing high for this move.
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Now, it ended last week on a sell signal,
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and you can see the nice gap open yesterday.
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So if you were about to sell on Tuesday
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morning and you looked at the opening bid and ask, you probably waved off that sell
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signal and just held your position through yesterday's trading activity.
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Now, Barrick, of course, the big player on
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the TSX made a new closing high for this move yesterday.
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And the only gold stock on the S&P 500
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actually was the biggest winner on the S&P 500 yesterday.
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We see Newmont making a new closing high for this move.
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Our next mathematical target is $50.
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We're trading just above that in the pre market this morning.
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Of course, if you trade Newmont, you know
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we're coming up to the 200 day moving average.
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We're also coming up to an open gap from back in July.
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And so the top of that open gap was at.
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Unlike the major US
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Indices, the Canadian market was able to
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move higher yesterday on the back of rising gold prices.
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Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60, we need to close on Wednesday above 29.
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46. And we've got a nice open gap just above
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that level that could hold this market in check.
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Now, going in the opposite direction of
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gold was crude oil, which is down over 3% yesterday.
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It is down again in the pre market this
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morning and may end Wednesday on a sell signal, joining natural gas, which was
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down over 10% on Tuesday, making a new low for this move.
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And we saw a big sell off in energy stocks on both sides of the border.
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There's the Ishares for the TSX 60, making a new low for this move yesterday.
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Back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close, also trading below the recent lows.
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So still projecting lower prices here.
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I saw some people talk about possible head and shoulders here.
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You've got the head up here. You've got a left shoulder.
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You've got a right shoulder.
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You take the distance from there to there.
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And that would take us back down to the
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lows from back in July if this head and shoulders pattern continues to unfold.
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Right now, we are still projecting lower prices here, down to the $14 level.
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We'll just have to see how that works out.
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Now, in the US.
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Energy stocks held up a little better.
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They have not broken down below the recent lows.
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We'll have to see if those lows continue to act as support.
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Now, the biggest losers that people are
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talking about on Wednesday morning are Apple and Tesla.
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There's a new low for Apple.
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Our next target to the downside, if we start breaking down below 125, is 118.
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75.
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Now, Apple appears to move a lot slower
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than Tesla, and they are two completely different stocks.
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The average two range on Apple is 3.66% right now, and you can see how wide the
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flypaper channel is, which is currently acting as resistance.
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So any rally here, we would expect to get caught in the flypaper channel.
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Now, if you compare that to Tesla, first
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of all, the width of the flypaper channel is dramatically smaller.
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So, you know it's a much more nimble stock than Apple is.
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And you can see, mathematically speaking,
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the average true range is just under 10% at the moment.
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So being down over 12% on the day is a
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little more than the average true range at the moment.
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But it's not that unexpected to see that happen.
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So when we're looking at Tesla, our next mathematical target is 93, 75.
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Of course, the market is going to be looking to see if $100 can hold.
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That's a big round number, and it'll be very interesting, and it'll be very sad
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for the market if we start breaking down below $100.
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Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning's presentation.
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Currently, the Dow is up about 44 points.
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We do have some economic numbers coming up
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this morning that could add to the pre market volatility, but so far, things are
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looking fairly quiet out there on Wednesday morning.
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Have a great day, folks.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
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And at that time, we'll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.
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Thank you.

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