Stock Market Timing Television - 20230104
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    • 00:00:00
      Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday Morning.
    • 00:00:03
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from The
    • 00:00:05
      UpTrend.com. Well, the market got off to a rough start on Tuesday.
    • 00:00:10
      There were some things that moved higher,
    • 00:00:12
      including the VIX, which is back on a buy signal as of Tuesday's close.
    • 00:00:16
      We've got the US.
    • 00:00:17
      Dollar index sitting right on the edge of a new daily buy signal.
    • 00:00:21
      And then we've got gold moving higher on Tuesday.
    • 00:00:24
      Making a new high for this move.
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      Our mathematical target right now is 1843.
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      75.
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      If we can take out yesterday's high, then
    • 00:00:33
      1875 is both our next daily and weekly price target.
    • 00:00:39
      With the price of gold moving up, we had
    • 00:00:41
      gold stocks moving up on both sides of the border.
    • 00:00:43
      There's the GDX moving up.
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      There's the Ishares for the TSX Global
    • 00:00:48
      Gold Index making a new closing high for this move.
    • 00:00:51
      Now, it ended last week on a sell signal,
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      and you can see the nice gap open yesterday.
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      So if you were about to sell on Tuesday
    • 00:01:01
      morning and you looked at the opening bid and ask, you probably waved off that sell
    • 00:01:05
      signal and just held your position through yesterday's trading activity.
    • 00:01:11
      Now, Barrick, of course, the big player on
    • 00:01:14
      the TSX made a new closing high for this move yesterday.
    • 00:01:17
      And the only gold stock on the S&P 500
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      actually was the biggest winner on the S&P 500 yesterday.
    • 00:01:24
      We see Newmont making a new closing high for this move.
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      Our next mathematical target is $50.
    • 00:01:30
      We're trading just above that in the pre market this morning.
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      Of course, if you trade Newmont, you know
    • 00:01:36
      we're coming up to the 200 day moving average.
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      We're also coming up to an open gap from back in July.
    • 00:01:42
      And so the top of that open gap was at.
    • 00:01:48
      Unlike the major US
    • 00:01:49
      Indices, the Canadian market was able to
    • 00:01:52
      move higher yesterday on the back of rising gold prices.
    • 00:01:56
      Looking at the Ishares for the TSX 60, we need to close on Wednesday above 29.
    • 00:02:01
      46. And we've got a nice open gap just above
    • 00:02:04
      that level that could hold this market in check.
    • 00:02:07
      Now, going in the opposite direction of
    • 00:02:10
      gold was crude oil, which is down over 3% yesterday.
    • 00:02:13
      It is down again in the pre market this
    • 00:02:15
      morning and may end Wednesday on a sell signal, joining natural gas, which was
    • 00:02:21
      down over 10% on Tuesday, making a new low for this move.
    • 00:02:25
      And we saw a big sell off in energy stocks on both sides of the border.
    • 00:02:29
      There's the Ishares for the TSX 60, making a new low for this move yesterday.
    • 00:02:33
      Back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close, also trading below the recent lows.
    • 00:02:39
      So still projecting lower prices here.
    • 00:02:42
      I saw some people talk about possible head and shoulders here.
    • 00:02:46
      You've got the head up here. You've got a left shoulder.
    • 00:02:48
      You've got a right shoulder.
    • 00:02:50
      You take the distance from there to there.
    • 00:02:52
      And that would take us back down to the
    • 00:02:55
      lows from back in July if this head and shoulders pattern continues to unfold.
    • 00:03:01
      Right now, we are still projecting lower prices here, down to the $14 level.
    • 00:03:05
      We'll just have to see how that works out.
    • 00:03:08
      Now, in the US.
    • 00:03:09
      Energy stocks held up a little better.
    • 00:03:11
      They have not broken down below the recent lows.
    • 00:03:13
      We'll have to see if those lows continue to act as support.
    • 00:03:18
      Now, the biggest losers that people are
    • 00:03:20
      talking about on Wednesday morning are Apple and Tesla.
    • 00:03:24
      There's a new low for Apple.
    • 00:03:26
      Our next target to the downside, if we start breaking down below 125, is 118.
    • 00:03:31
      75.
    • 00:03:32
      Now, Apple appears to move a lot slower
    • 00:03:35
      than Tesla, and they are two completely different stocks.
    • 00:03:39
      The average two range on Apple is 3.66% right now, and you can see how wide the
    • 00:03:44
      flypaper channel is, which is currently acting as resistance.
    • 00:03:48
      So any rally here, we would expect to get caught in the flypaper channel.
    • 00:03:52
      Now, if you compare that to Tesla, first
    • 00:03:56
      of all, the width of the flypaper channel is dramatically smaller.
    • 00:04:00
      So, you know it's a much more nimble stock than Apple is.
    • 00:04:04
      And you can see, mathematically speaking,
    • 00:04:06
      the average true range is just under 10% at the moment.
    • 00:04:10
      So being down over 12% on the day is a
    • 00:04:14
      little more than the average true range at the moment.
    • 00:04:16
      But it's not that unexpected to see that happen.
    • 00:04:22
      So when we're looking at Tesla, our next mathematical target is 93, 75.
    • 00:04:28
      Of course, the market is going to be looking to see if $100 can hold.
    • 00:04:32
      That's a big round number, and it'll be very interesting, and it'll be very sad
    • 00:04:37
      for the market if we start breaking down below $100.
    • 00:04:41
      Okay, folks, that is all for Wednesday morning's presentation.
    • 00:04:45
      Currently, the Dow is up about 44 points.
    • 00:04:48
      We do have some economic numbers coming up
    • 00:04:50
      this morning that could add to the pre market volatility, but so far, things are
    • 00:04:55
      looking fairly quiet out there on Wednesday morning.
    • 00:04:58
      Have a great day, folks.
    • 00:04:59
      Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
    • 00:05:02
      And at that time, we'll take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.
    • 00:05:35
      Thank you.

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