Stock Market Timing Television - Weekend Edition 05282023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from

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theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing and Television.

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Let's start off with some housekeeping.

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Us markets will be closed tomorrow and so will the uptrend.

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Yes, Canadian markets will be open, but the volume will be down about 50 % or so.

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And without any adult supervision from the commodity markets, there isn't going to be

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a lot of volatility in the Canadian market on Monday.

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So we'll be back with a video on Tuesday

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morning and charts again on Tuesday evening.

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Now, this is a three day long weekend.

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We saw some buying going into the end of the week.

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We are also coming up to month end, and so

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we expect the market to have a bullish bias coming into month end.

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But this year is a little different.

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This month is a little different with the debt ceiling crisis going on in the US.

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Yeah, they made some progress, but it's minor.

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It's one thing to get an agreement with the White House.

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It's another thing to get it through

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Congress and then get it through the Senate.

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So we'll just have to see how that turns out.

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Looking at the VIX, the VIX had a wild

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week, ended the week slightly higher, still on a weekly sell signal.

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That's supportive for higher stock prices on a long term basis.

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Looking for a close this coming Friday above

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$20.94. On a daily basis, we've had the VIX on a buy signal for the last four

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days, and so we did see some downward pressure during the week for some of the

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areas of the market outside of the chip sector.

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We're looking for a close on Tuesday below $17.21 to give us a sell signal, and that,

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of course, would be supportive for higher stock prices.

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Looking at weekly charts, the TSX pulled

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back 2.17 % on the week and is back on a weekly sell signal.

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The DOW Diamonds did trade through the

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lower channel line but then ended the week back in the channel, down 1 % on the week.

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The S&P 500 closed up a third on the week while the Nasdaq was up 3.53

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%, being led higher by the chip sector, which was up 8.68 % on the week.

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Now, the big story this week, of course, is AI stocks.

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And we had NVIDIA lead the market higher.

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We've been involved in AI stocks all year.

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We've been talking about how technology has been leading the market higher.

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This is the time and place where we see a

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lot of magazine covers talking about the AI story.

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And this is probably the time and place where the market will reverse.

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I certainly wouldn't encourage anybody to

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jump in chasing AI stocks at this particular time.

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We'd wait for a pullback before we'd get excited.

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Year to date, looking at the US market,

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it's semiconductors followed by information technology, followed by

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communication services, and then the Nasdaq 100, and then the Nasdaq.

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If you're involved in any ETF or mutual

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fund that tracks the Nasdaq, you've been involved in AI stocks all year.

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If you follow any of the technology stocks

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that we cover in our daily videos, then you've been involved in AI stocks as well.

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When we look at a heat map year to date, you can see the big cap stocks that have

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been leading the market higher, and they're all basically AI related.

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So this is the topic we've been talking about all year.

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Now, there are some exchange traded funds.

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We have three in the database.

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There are some more.

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I'm going to look at a couple more, but some of them are very thinly traded.

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My favorite is bots BOTZ.

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It covers 43 global stocks.

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It's performed really well in 2023.

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Then we've got ROBO, which is more to do

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with robotics and industrial applications of AI.

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It's done very well as well.

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Then we've got the Cathie Wood's AI ETF, which is dragging its feet here.

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It is heavily invested in Tesla and it is invested in a lot of things that are

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further away from what you and I would see.

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Stuff in the background that we wouldn't see as consumers.

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It'll probably do well over the long term, but I'm not a big fan of anything Cathie

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Woods does, so it's not one that I would be looking at myself.

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Now, I was just looking at a Forbes

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article talked about the 12 best artificial intelligence stocks to buy in

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2023, and some of them we've been following all year.

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Adobe is not one that I follow on a regular basis.

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It had a big pop this week, probably on the back of NVIDIA's big up move.

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And then, of course, we've been following Alphabet for a long time.

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I switched out of following Alphabet

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myself in my personal portfolio and switched over to Amazon.

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And so far, that hasn't worked out too well.

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But then I make money either if the stock goes up or the stock goes down.

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I really don't care about how far up it

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goes, but Amazon is going up with Alphabet at the same time.

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Then Bidu, not one that I follow.

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It's on a weekly sell signal right now.

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They're all weekly charts that we're looking at right now.

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Then C3AI had a big pop, second week of a buy signal.

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Then we're looking at IBM, and of course, the world has heard about Watson.

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Watson is not something that you and I as

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consumers can get too close to, but corporations can.

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And we're sitting right on the edge of a new weekly buy signal for IBM.

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Now, IBM is really a consulting company

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far more than it's a hardware or software company.

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So the fact that it has Watson

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isn't going to do too much to the bottom line, I don't think.

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Then Micron, so we're back to hardware here, memory and storage.

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Then we've got Microsoft, which is right

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on the front end of consumer use of AI, and it has done really well in 2023.

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Then, of course, NVIDIA making chips for the data centers for artificial

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intelligence and having that big pop this week.

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It ran up to our next weekly and monthly price target and stopped last week and

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then just punched right through the next two weekly targets.

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Then looking at Oracle, Oracle trading back up to the highs from 2021.

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Then we've got Palantir, third week of a buy signal for Palantir.

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Then last up, we've got Tesla.

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Tesla is back on a weekly buy signal as of Friday's close.

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Now, looking at the seasonality of the

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Nasdaq, you can see that coming into the first week of June is very bullish.

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Then in June, we usually get a pullback,

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and then the summer rally starts at the end of June.

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That's historically what happens.

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We'll have to see what happens this year,

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but of course, if you want to get involved in any of the AI stocks, I would certainly

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wait for a pullback before I would jump in with both feet.

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Let's finish off this weekend's

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presentation looking at commodities and starting off with copper.

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Copper came off of its lows, still closed down 1.3,4 % on the week.

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So that put pressure on global mining

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stocks, as did the price of gold, which is back on a sell signal.

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And the price of silver is also back on a weekly sell signal as of Friday's close.

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Now looking at the stocks themselves, US

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gold miners are back on a sell signal as are Canadian gold miners joining silver

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miners on their second week of a sell signal.

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Looking at energy, starting with crude oil.

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Crude oil closed up 1.81 % on the week,

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closing in the channel, looking for a close above $75.13 this coming Friday.

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Then looking at natural gas, it was down

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over 10 %, still holding the recent lows, still, of course, on a weekly sell signal.

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That would change this week if natural gas

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could close above $2.84. Then looking at the stocks,

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Canadian energy stocks were down 0.82 % while US energy stocks were down just over

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1 %, so no joy for the energy sector this week.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Stock Index futures have started trading Sunday night.

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They're up about 0.4 %, so DOW is up 120 points at the moment.

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Not an overreaction to the debt ceiling negotiations.

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We'll just have to see how that works out.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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