Stock Market Outlook 10172023

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good morning everyone and welcome to Tuesday Morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.com In the pre market this
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morning, stock index futures are trading slightly below fair value.
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Commodities are mixed.
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We are coming up to some economic numbers at 8:30 this morning and then at 10:00 and
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of course those numbers could add to market volatility.
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Now yesterday was an inside day for a lot of areas of the market.
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The VIX had an inside day.
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So on Tuesday we're looking for a close
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below 1675 to give us a new sell signal that of course would be supportive for
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higher stock prices in the Canadian market.
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The Ishares for the TSX 60 had an inside day.
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We had an inside day for the Nasdaq, 100 for Semiconductors.
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We did not have an inside day for the Dow or the S&P 500.
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Unable to take out the high from two days ago.
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Trading up into the gap 437.50 is current.
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Resistance support is at 429 .69. Is resistance holding?
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Well, over the past couple of days we've
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run up three times and we've been unable to take out that area of resistance.
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As high as we got was 437.34. Now just
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above that resistance is the top of the open gap at 438.43. So that's going to be
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a very important number to watch to see what the market does if it goes up
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and fills that gap at this particular time.
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If we can take out that gap then 445.31 comes into play.
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Now looking at gold miners this morning
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and the price of gold back on the 11th of the month we generated a buy signal for
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gold at that time, our next price target was 1937.50. And what do you know?
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Well we've run up to that level and stopped and so now we're looking to see if
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we can break out and retest the highs from back in September on our way to $2,000.
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Unfortunately we're stuck at the moving average convergence here and yesterday we
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traded between the 51 hundred day moving average with the 200 day just above us.
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So that is going to be a big ask to get
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the market to start trading above those levels.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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Looking at the GDX and looking at the
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Panic Zone chart, you can see we are certainly projecting higher prices right
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now, but the GDX has been a series of lower highs and lower lows.
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Right now we are looking to see if we can
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retest the high from September and to do that we're going to have to get up to our
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next price target of 29.69. Unfortunately the pros have not taken control so far,
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even though we've been on a buy signal for a few days now.
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Looking north of the border, looking at
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the XGD, this chart is looking very similar.
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It is a different mix of international, Canadian and international gold companies.
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You can see we've traded up and getting
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pretty close to those September highs and the pros are starting to take control.
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So we have hit our next price target of
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17.19. So congratulations, you got to lock in some profits.
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Our next target, of course, is going to be the high from late August and into
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September, and that's up at the 17.54, I think 17.57 level.
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If we can take that out, then of course 17.97 would come into play.
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Next up, let's take a look at the energy sector, and crude oil generated a buy
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signal on Friday, small pullback on Monday.
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It is trading higher in the pre market this morning.
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Unlike gold, which is seeing the moving
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averages act as resistance, crude oil is using them as support.
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And so we wouldn't be surprised if we had a move back up to the recent high.
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Unfortunately, the pros have not taken control just yet.
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Remember, we're only on our second day of
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a buy signal, so we'll give them a couple of more days to see if they come back in.
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Natural gas pulled back to the lower
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channel line yesterday, looking for a close on Tuesday.
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Below $3.70. 3.71 is support.
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4.10 is acting as resistance.
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Of course, we always look for moves to be two lines at a time.
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And so if we start breaking down below
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3.71, then two lines down takes us back to the 3.32 level.
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Unfortunately, the fly paper channel is
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still acting as resistance for natural gas and that is unfortunate.
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Of course, it's going to be a big
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celebration if we can start breaking out above those levels.
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Then looking at energy stocks, the XGD is on its fourth day of a buy signal here.
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When you look at this chart, you can see that it's crunched in.
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This particular chart is set to always have price in the middle of the chart.
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So if you are coming up to the top of the
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projected trading range, this is going to be flattened down.
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The top of the projected trading range is
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up there at 17.97. If we want to look beyond that, you can simply do the math or
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you can go to the weekly chart and see that 18.75 would be our next target.
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So if we take out the top of the daily range, 18.75 would be our next target and
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that would take us back to the high from early 2022.
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Then looking at US
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Energy stocks on the XLE.
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Again, looking at a weekly chart, you can see that 93.75 is our next target and we
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ran up to that recently and that has acted as resistance.
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If we can take that out, then $100 certainly comes into play.
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Moving back to the daily chart, you can see 93.75 is the top of the range right
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now and 84.38 is the bottom of the range at the moment.
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And there we are on our second day of a buy signal.
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For the XLE.
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Okay, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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So far it looks like we're going to have a fairly quiet open on Tuesday morning.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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The next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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