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00:00:00Hello everyone.
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00:00:01It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:03com with this weekend's look at Canadian Stock Market Trends.
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00:00:08Now, we're going to be taking a big
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00:00:10picture look at the Canadian Stock Market, and we're going to be using weekly charts.
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00:00:14There's going to be a couple of daily charts, but for the most part, this
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00:00:16presentation is going to be full of weekly charts.
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00:00:20Now, if you're a long term investor, you
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00:00:22should probably ignore what happens from Monday to Friday and look for bigger trend
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00:00:26changes to happen before you start moving your money in and out of the market.
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00:00:32Now, the first thing I always look at when
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00:00:34I'm looking at the market is I want to filter out all the news, economic reports,
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00:00:38earnings reports, and I want to see how options traders feel about the market.
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00:00:43Now, the majority of options that are
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00:00:45traded at the options exchanges in Chicago are used for hedging purposes.
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00:00:50That means portfolio protection.
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00:00:53When options traders get nervous about the market, they bid up the price of options,
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00:00:59and that It tells us when there's fear in the market and there's no fear.
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00:01:03If you were with us last fall, we went through six weeks of fear leading into the
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00:01:09October lows, which gave us eventually the year-end rally.
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00:01:13Looking at a weekly as part of the VIX, I want to remain long term bullish on the
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00:01:17market unless the VIX were to close above 15.
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00:01:2036 this coming Friday.
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00:01:24Now, if you're a short term trader coming
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00:01:26into Monday's trading action, you can see that the VIX is on sell signal right now.
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00:01:31That is supportive for higher stock prices.
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00:01:33And so on Monday, we would
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00:01:35remain short term bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 14.
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00:01:4254 on Monday.
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00:01:44Now, The upper channel line is crawling down.
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00:01:47So if that doesn't happen on Monday, that
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00:01:50number is going to continue to decrease throughout the week until at some point in
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00:01:54the future, the VIX gets back on a buy signal, which, of
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00:01:58course, would be short term bearish for the market.
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00:02:02Now, once we've checked the fear index or the VIX, we can move on to the major US
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00:02:07stock market indices and see how they finish the week.
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00:02:10And it was a pretty bullish week for the S&P 500, up a little over two and a
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00:02:14quarter %, while the Nasdaq was up nearly 3% on the week for a new closing high.
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00:02:20Things are looking pretty bullish for the US market.
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00:02:24Now, you may not have seen these charts.
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00:02:26I've shown them several times over the
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00:02:28past couple of months, but these are seasonality charts from equity clock.
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00:02:33You can see what we were expecting to
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00:02:34happen was a peak in February for the S&P 500, and then some selling into March,
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00:02:40and then April should be a fairly bullish month.
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00:02:43That's also true for the Nasdaq.
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00:02:45It's also true for the TSX.
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00:02:47And of course, the opposite is true for the VIX.
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00:02:51We were expecting a huge move up in the VIX.
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00:02:53We did have that in March of last year, but so far it hasn't happened.
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00:02:59Now, seasonality Seasonality charts, of
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00:03:00course, are an average of what has happened over time.
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00:03:04Some seasonality charts include 20 years of data, some 30, 40, 50 years of data.
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00:03:10So there's no guarantee that it's going to happen.
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00:03:13Now, the markets are currently very overbought,
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00:03:17and a lot of people are looking for a pullback to start at some point.
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00:03:21So what should have happened, according to
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00:03:24the seasonality charts, what should have happened in March may shift over to April,
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00:03:28but we have absolutely no sign of that coming into Monday's trading action.
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00:03:34Well, now that we know that options traders in Chicago are still bullish, and
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00:03:38we know that stock traders in New York are still bullish, there's no reason that we
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00:03:42can't be bullish on the Canadian stock market.
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00:03:45Now, as we come into this week's trading action, most of the major Canadian indices
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00:03:50are overbought, and they're up at the top of the range.
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00:03:53I am not looking for low-risk buying opportunities.
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00:03:57Looking at this panic zone chart for the TSX, you can see last time we had a
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00:04:01pressure zone, and we were down at the bottom of the Panic Zones.
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00:04:03That's when we look for a low-risk buying opportunity.
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00:04:06Now, what we're looking for is selling opportunities up here.
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00:04:10And what I'm going to do,
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00:04:12if you weren't looking over my shoulder right now, here's what I would do.
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00:04:15I would bring up the list of all the major
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00:04:18Canadian indices, and I would just go like this.
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00:04:22What I'm doing is I'm just scanning
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00:04:23through, and I am looking for a new early warning signal, and there's consumer
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00:04:28staples with a new early warning signal, down a little over 1%, consumer staples,
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00:04:34not the most volatile index, but that's one that I would be concerned about.
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00:04:39Then as we continue to just scan down, we're not seeing anything new.
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00:04:44No early warning signals.
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00:04:46There's the industrials making a new high.
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00:04:48We've had several early warning signals over the past couple of months for the
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00:04:54tech sector, and not really a lot of pullback.
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00:04:56So we're up at the top of the Panic Zones here.
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00:04:58We're projecting lower prices.
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00:04:59That hasn't started yet.
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00:05:02So then we get to materials, which was
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00:05:04down on the week, but no early warning signal.
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00:05:06Then we've got real estate.
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00:05:08Then we've got telecom stocks.
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00:05:09And you can see the last time we had an early warning signal was here.
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00:05:12It's an early warning signal until it's
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00:05:15confirmed, and of course, it ended up getting confirmed.
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00:05:18And now we're looking to see if we can hold the 2023 lows for the telecom sector.
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00:05:24And then last up, utilities.
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00:05:26So only one new early warning signal to be concerned about.
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00:05:30Now, after going through the weekly Panic
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00:05:32Zone charts, I'm going to move on to the weekly Right Side charts.
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00:05:36And again, we only had one new early warning signal from the Panic Zones chart,
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00:05:41so there's not a lot to be concerned about.
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00:05:44If we start hitting the down arrow key
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00:05:46from the TSX to the TSX 60 to mid-caps, small caps,
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00:05:51and unfortunately, microcaps not really keeping up.
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00:05:54We did deep dip through the lower channel line this week, but we didn't close below
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00:05:59it, so we are still on a weekly buy signal, putting in a peak a couple of
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00:06:03weeks ago, and we'll have to see if the market can hold last week's low.
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00:06:08Then looking at the sectors, we've got
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00:06:11clean technology stocks on a weekly sell signal, no change there.
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00:06:15No change for consumer discretionary.
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00:06:17Consumer staples pulled back, closing
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00:06:20above the upper channel line, so not overly concerned just yet.
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00:06:24Then energy stocks making a new high this
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00:06:27week, and congratulations to everybody who got into energy stocks.
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00:06:31Then looking at financials, financial is
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00:06:33doing well, bank is doing well, no change in trend there.
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00:06:36A small pullback for the gold sector.
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00:06:39Potential top for the gold stocks, for mining stocks in general this week.
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00:06:43We'll just have to keep an Buy on them.
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00:06:45There's certainly some new daily sell
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00:06:47signals, but really haven't seen fall through to the downside just yet.
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00:06:51That could change on Monday.
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00:06:53Then looking at income trust, no change there.
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00:06:56Health care was up over 10% on the week.
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00:06:58That had a lot to do with a marijuana stock.
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00:07:01There's only a handful of stocks in the
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00:07:03health care sector, so not really a sector I follow that closely.
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00:07:07Global mining, still on a buy signal here.
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00:07:10You can see we put in a new high and then
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00:07:12pulled back, still above the upper channel line, so not concerned.
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00:07:16I'm not concerned about base metals.
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00:07:18New high for industrials, and industrials have certainly helped,
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00:07:22along with the Infotec sector, keep the Canadian market afloat in 2024.
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00:07:28There's Infotec still of closing above the
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00:07:31upper channel line, so no concern coming into this week's action.
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00:07:34Then looking at the materials, we were down slightly on the week.
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00:07:39So again, mining stocks may have put in a high last week.
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00:07:42It could be a short term high that does not end up really directly affecting the
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00:07:47weekly charts, but the only time will tell.
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00:07:50Then real estate, been trading in the channel for the past couple of weeks.
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00:07:53So a close below 305.
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00:07:5646 this coming Friday would give us a new
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00:07:58weekly sell signal for the Canadian real estate sector.
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00:08:03Then, of course, you would want to look at individual real estate stocks and see if
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00:08:08your corresponding stocks actually received a sell signal with the index.
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00:08:13The index, of course, is made up of a whole bunch of stocks, and not all of them
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00:08:17will generate sell signals at the same time.
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00:08:20Then moving on from real estate, we're looking at telecom.
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00:08:24Telecom has been on a sell signal for a
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00:08:25while now, looking to see if we can hold the lows from late 2023.
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00:08:31And then last up, utilities.
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00:08:33Utilities still on a sell signal here.
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00:08:35That could change this week with a close above 279.
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00:08:3843.
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00:08:39Again, we'll just have to wait and see.
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00:08:42Okay, folks, let's finish off today's
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00:08:44presentation taking a look at commodity prices for the week.
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00:08:48And we had a big reversal in the price of copper closing down on the week.
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00:08:53It didn't close below the previous week's
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00:08:54low, but certainly enough to give us a bearish reversal week.
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00:08:57So a potential top for copper.
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00:09:00Gold, on the other hand, basically closed
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00:09:02where it opened on the week, so no change at all from the previous week.
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00:09:08It was down a $1. 47 on the week after making a new high,
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00:09:12running up to the 2250 level and then starting to pull back.
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00:09:16Silver, on the other hand, did drop over 2% on the week, so making a new high for
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00:09:21this move, then rolling over, that gives us a bearish reversal signal.
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00:09:25So potential tops for both copper, gold, and silver last week, and we'll have to
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00:09:32see if we get continued selling into this week.
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00:09:35Now, looking at the energy sector, Crudol
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00:09:38lost all of its gains, ending the week just up five cents on the week.
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00:09:42So we were trying to break out above 81.
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00:09:4525.
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00:09:46We did trade above it during the week, but
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00:09:48we did not close above it, so no joy there.
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00:09:51If we had have closed above 81.
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00:09:5325, then we'd be talking about 87.
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00:09:5550, but that is not the case going into Monday's trading action.
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00:10:00Our last chart of the day is natural gas.
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00:10:03It was up a little over 1% on the week,
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00:10:05but certainly no change in trend for natural gas.
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00:10:08Everything's still red down here.
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00:10:10There is a chevron indicating a possible bottom, but until these dots start turning
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00:10:16blue, we're really not going to get overly bullish on natural gas.
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00:10:21Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation.
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00:10:24The stocks still look very bullish.
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00:10:26We are coming into month-end.
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00:10:28We're also coming into a long weekend.
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00:10:29Which is usually bullish.
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00:10:31So not overly concerned about stocks, but
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00:10:34commodities, on the other hand, to see gold run up and make a new high and
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00:10:39then lose it all going into the end of the week, to see Crudol make a new high for
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00:10:43this move and then give it up all going into the end of the week.
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00:10:47That's not a very bullish picture for those commodities.
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00:10:49So let's see how things turn out this week.
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00:10:52But coming into a long weekend, coming
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00:10:54into month-end, usually has a bullish bias to it.
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00:10:57So I'm not overly concerned about a major
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00:11:00sell off, but maybe the commodity sector's roll over this week.
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00:11:03We'll just have to wait and see.
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00:11:05Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:11:07Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll
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00:11:10take a closer look at the most actively traded stocks on both sides of the border.