Stock Market Timing Television - 20221117

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Good morning everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the premarket.

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This morning stock index futures are down

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across the board, being led lower by technology stocks.

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Dow futures are currently down 250 points.

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Commodities are mixed.

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We've got gold and crude oil lower, while not natural gas is higher.

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On Thursday morning.

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Let's start off this morning's presentation with a little housekeeping.

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Over the past couple of weeks,

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we've been trying to perfect our early morning workflow so that we could not only

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publish in English, but publish in multiple languages.

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This is to help our business partners

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around the world and things are going pretty good.

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What we have come up with a decision today and that is to just publish the English

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version first and then the translated versions will be available 1 hour later.

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And so we're starting that this morning.

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And so if you're waiting

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for the translated version, just look and see when you get the English

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version and the translated version will be available in the same place.

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You just have to click on the icons at the bottom of the screen and you'll be

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able to get the translated version 1 hour later.

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Now there's really not too much to say about yesterday's trading activity.

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It was basically an inside day.

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Whether you're looking at the VIX or

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the US dollar index or the S&P 500, they all had inside days.

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So yesterday was a date of indecision, a pause day.

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Now we're looking for some action

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on Thursday and it looks like it is going to be to the downside.

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Now an interesting thing has come up this

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week that I want you to look at, and that's the fact that moving averages

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apparently are stopping much of the US market at the moment.

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Looking at the S&P 500 SPY ETF, you can see that we've traded up

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to the 200 day moving average on Tuesday and then backed off.

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Nothing's broken down so far, but it is acting as resistance.

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And looking at the Q's for the Nasdaq

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100, it's the 100 day moving average that's acting as resistance.

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And looking at the I shares for the Russell 2000,

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it is the 200 day moving average that is acting as resistance.

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Now, if the moving averages are holding

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some of the market in check at the moment on the way up, we should also expect them

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to act as potential support on the way back down.

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Now, people who follow moving averages often follow trend lines as well.

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And so there's a nice uptrend line for the SPY ETF.

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So we're going to be looking to see if

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the moving averages can hold us on the way back down and if the trend line can hold,

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if those start to break, that's a more bearish situation and we

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would expect the market to go back down and retest the early October low.

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None of those things have happened yet.

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The only thing that's happened so far is

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that moving average resistance has held us in check.

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Now, looking at the nasdaq, it's a different situation than the SPY ETF.

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It's also a different situation to the dow

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and the TSX, which have been able to break out above the 200 day moving average.

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You can see that the recent low was just

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slightly higher than the low from early October.

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And so we have less padding on the way back down for the nasdaq than we do

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for the SPY ETF, for the S&P 500, or for the I shares for the Russell 2000,

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which made it up to the 200 day moving average.

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So we'll be watching both the moving averages and trendline support as possible

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clues of which way the market wants to go next.

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Now, as I mentioned,

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the down the TSX broke out above the 200 day moving average.

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And of course, that could be a temporary situation.

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We certainly didn't make a breakout above

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the summer highs just yet, so that it may not be moving average.

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Resistance is holding us in check.

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It could be the highs from the summer that are currently holding us in check.

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Now, one of the main reasons that the TSX

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has been able to move up above its 200 day moving average has been the energy sector.

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Unfortunately, that looks like it's coming to an end.

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We've spent some time up here trying to break out above the highs from back

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in late spring and unfortunately, we have not been able to do that so far.

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Just a quick comment on this chart.

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This chart is centered on the middle

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of the screen and so we keep price in the middle of the screen.

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That's also true of this chart.

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And the reason for that is that we want

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the ability to be able to show projections to the upside or to the downside.

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If we use have the chart,

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as you would normally look at a chart where the price gets to go right up

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to the top, then we don't have the ability to show any additional projections.

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So this is the Ishares for the TSX Energy Sector.

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And you can see that we're up at the top

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of the Panic Zones here and we've started to fade.

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Certainly we had a recent buy signal.

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Of course, when you're looking at opportunities,

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the low risk opportunities come off the bottom of the Panic Zones.

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The high risk opportunities show up at the top of the Panic Zones and that's

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where a new buy signal is less likely to succeed.

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And that is probably going to happen to the eye shares for the TSX Energy Sector.

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On Thursday, we need to close below 1692.

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Now, when we look at crude oil, crude oil has been trendless for a while now.

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The pros, yes, they're in control, but barely.

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So there has been no enthusiasm for crude oil for quite a while.

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That has not stopped people from putting money in the Energy Sector.

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Crude oil is currently on a sell signal.

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Energy stocks are still on a buy signal.

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We're trading lower this morning, trying to hold 81.25.

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If that breaks, then look for a move back down to $75 now in the US.

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I follow the SPY Energy ETF.

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And again, it looks like it's fading.

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It traded up just above the highs

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from back in the late spring, but has not seen any momentum up here.

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We're having trouble at 93.75 on Thursday.

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If we get a close below 90.50,

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that would put us back on a sell signal that we were on last week.

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And again, when you're looking at new buy signals at the top of the Panic Zones,

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those are the riskiest buy signals to take.

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They're the least likely to continue to the upside.

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Let's finish off today's presentation with a quick look at Tesla.

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Tesla hasn't really participated in the recent rally.

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We've got Apple ranked as a 6,

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amazon ranked as a 4, and Tesla currently ranked as a 1.

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We need to close above 203.93 on Thursday.

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Not expecting that to happen as it's trading lower this morning.

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You can see the pros have been in control since late September and went through

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the whole month of October into November not being in control.

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We've been clustering around the 187.50

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level for the last week, closed just below it yesterday.

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If we take out last week's low,

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then 156 and then 125 are the next targets to the downside.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see some

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psychological support at 150 if we do break down below last week's low.

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Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.

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The stock index futures have continued

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to move lower since I started this presentation.

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Dow future is currently down 340 points,

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so we are definitely looking for some selling at the Open on Thursday morning.

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The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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Enjoy your day.

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