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00:00:00Good morning everyone. Welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com in the premarket.
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00:00:06This morning stock index futures are down
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00:00:09across the board, being led lower by technology stocks.
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00:00:12Dow futures are currently down 250 points.
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00:00:15Commodities are mixed.
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00:00:16We've got gold and crude oil lower, while not natural gas is higher.
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00:00:20On Thursday morning.
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00:00:23Let's start off this morning's presentation with a little housekeeping.
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00:00:27Over the past couple of weeks,
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00:00:28we've been trying to perfect our early morning workflow so that we could not only
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00:00:34publish in English, but publish in multiple languages.
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00:00:38This is to help our business partners
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00:00:40around the world and things are going pretty good.
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00:00:44What we have come up with a decision today and that is to just publish the English
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00:00:49version first and then the translated versions will be available 1 hour later.
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00:00:55And so we're starting that this morning.
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00:00:57And so if you're waiting
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00:00:58for the translated version, just look and see when you get the English
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00:01:02version and the translated version will be available in the same place.
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00:01:07You just have to click on the icons at the bottom of the screen and you'll be
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00:01:11able to get the translated version 1 hour later.
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00:01:15Now there's really not too much to say about yesterday's trading activity.
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00:01:18It was basically an inside day.
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00:01:21Whether you're looking at the VIX or
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00:01:22the US dollar index or the S&P 500, they all had inside days.
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00:01:27So yesterday was a date of indecision, a pause day.
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00:01:30Now we're looking for some action
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00:01:32on Thursday and it looks like it is going to be to the downside.
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00:01:36Now an interesting thing has come up this
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00:01:38week that I want you to look at, and that's the fact that moving averages
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00:01:43apparently are stopping much of the US market at the moment.
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00:01:46Looking at the S&P 500 SPY ETF, you can see that we've traded up
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00:01:52to the 200 day moving average on Tuesday and then backed off.
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00:01:58Nothing's broken down so far, but it is acting as resistance.
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00:02:02And looking at the Q's for the Nasdaq
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00:02:04100, it's the 100 day moving average that's acting as resistance.
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00:02:08And looking at the I shares for the Russell 2000,
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00:02:11it is the 200 day moving average that is acting as resistance.
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00:02:16Now, if the moving averages are holding
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00:02:19some of the market in check at the moment on the way up, we should also expect them
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00:02:24to act as potential support on the way back down.
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00:02:27Now, people who follow moving averages often follow trend lines as well.
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00:02:33And so there's a nice uptrend line for the SPY ETF.
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00:02:36So we're going to be looking to see if
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00:02:37the moving averages can hold us on the way back down and if the trend line can hold,
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00:02:43if those start to break, that's a more bearish situation and we
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00:02:47would expect the market to go back down and retest the early October low.
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00:02:53None of those things have happened yet.
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00:02:55The only thing that's happened so far is
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00:02:57that moving average resistance has held us in check.
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00:03:01Now, looking at the nasdaq, it's a different situation than the SPY ETF.
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00:03:05It's also a different situation to the dow
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00:03:07and the TSX, which have been able to break out above the 200 day moving average.
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00:03:13You can see that the recent low was just
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00:03:16slightly higher than the low from early October.
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00:03:19And so we have less padding on the way back down for the nasdaq than we do
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00:03:25for the SPY ETF, for the S&P 500, or for the I shares for the Russell 2000,
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00:03:30which made it up to the 200 day moving average.
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00:03:33So we'll be watching both the moving averages and trendline support as possible
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00:03:39clues of which way the market wants to go next.
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00:03:42Now, as I mentioned,
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00:03:43the down the TSX broke out above the 200 day moving average.
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00:03:47And of course, that could be a temporary situation.
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00:03:51We certainly didn't make a breakout above
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00:03:54the summer highs just yet, so that it may not be moving average.
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00:03:59Resistance is holding us in check.
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00:04:00It could be the highs from the summer that are currently holding us in check.
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00:04:06Now, one of the main reasons that the TSX
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00:04:08has been able to move up above its 200 day moving average has been the energy sector.
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00:04:13Unfortunately, that looks like it's coming to an end.
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00:04:16We've spent some time up here trying to break out above the highs from back
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00:04:21in late spring and unfortunately, we have not been able to do that so far.
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00:04:26Just a quick comment on this chart.
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00:04:28This chart is centered on the middle
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00:04:30of the screen and so we keep price in the middle of the screen.
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00:04:33That's also true of this chart.
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00:04:35And the reason for that is that we want
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00:04:38the ability to be able to show projections to the upside or to the downside.
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00:04:42If we use have the chart,
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00:04:46as you would normally look at a chart where the price gets to go right up
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00:04:50to the top, then we don't have the ability to show any additional projections.
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00:04:55So this is the Ishares for the TSX Energy Sector.
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00:04:58And you can see that we're up at the top
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00:05:00of the Panic Zones here and we've started to fade.
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00:05:04Certainly we had a recent buy signal.
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00:05:07Of course, when you're looking at opportunities,
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00:05:10the low risk opportunities come off the bottom of the Panic Zones.
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00:05:14The high risk opportunities show up at the top of the Panic Zones and that's
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00:05:19where a new buy signal is less likely to succeed.
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00:05:22And that is probably going to happen to the eye shares for the TSX Energy Sector.
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00:05:27On Thursday, we need to close below 1692.
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00:05:31Now, when we look at crude oil, crude oil has been trendless for a while now.
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00:05:36The pros, yes, they're in control, but barely.
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00:05:39So there has been no enthusiasm for crude oil for quite a while.
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00:05:44That has not stopped people from putting money in the Energy Sector.
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00:05:48Crude oil is currently on a sell signal.
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00:05:51Energy stocks are still on a buy signal.
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00:05:53We're trading lower this morning, trying to hold 81.25.
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00:05:57If that breaks, then look for a move back down to $75 now in the US.
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00:06:03I follow the SPY Energy ETF.
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00:06:06And again, it looks like it's fading.
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00:06:08It traded up just above the highs
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00:06:10from back in the late spring, but has not seen any momentum up here.
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00:06:15We're having trouble at 93.75 on Thursday.
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00:06:19If we get a close below 90.50,
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00:06:21that would put us back on a sell signal that we were on last week.
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00:06:26And again, when you're looking at new buy signals at the top of the Panic Zones,
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00:06:30those are the riskiest buy signals to take.
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00:06:33They're the least likely to continue to the upside.
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00:06:38Let's finish off today's presentation with a quick look at Tesla.
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00:06:41Tesla hasn't really participated in the recent rally.
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00:06:46We've got Apple ranked as a 6,
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00:06:48amazon ranked as a 4, and Tesla currently ranked as a 1.
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00:06:53We need to close above 203.93 on Thursday.
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00:06:55Not expecting that to happen as it's trading lower this morning.
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00:06:59You can see the pros have been in control since late September and went through
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00:07:03the whole month of October into November not being in control.
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00:07:08We've been clustering around the 187.50
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00:07:10level for the last week, closed just below it yesterday.
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00:07:14If we take out last week's low,
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00:07:15then 156 and then 125 are the next targets to the downside.
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00:07:21I wouldn't be surprised to see some
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00:07:23psychological support at 150 if we do break down below last week's low.
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00:07:30Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:33The stock index futures have continued
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00:07:35to move lower since I started this presentation.
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00:07:38Dow future is currently down 340 points,
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00:07:41so we are definitely looking for some selling at the Open on Thursday morning.
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00:07:45The next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
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00:07:48Enjoy your day.