Stock Market Timing Television - 07192023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com. In the premarket this morning, stock index
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futures and commodities are slightly above fair value.
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So far, it looks like we're going to see
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some buying at the open on Wednesday morning.
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Now, in today's presentation, we're going to do a couple of different things, but we
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were certainly going to start off looking at the VIX.
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The VIX is still on a daily sell signal and a weekly sell signal.
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Of course, both of those are supportive for higher stock prices.
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On a short term basis, things would change on Wednesday if the VIX were to close
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above $14.59. Now, the Nasdaq hit a new high
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yesterday, and of course, a handful of stocks in the Nasdaq have been responsible
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for most of the gains in the North American stock markets this year.
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I had a question yesterday asking if the volumes of the bull and bear ETFs could
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help indicate possible change in market direction.
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And for the most part, I would say no.
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I would strongly encourage you to watch price action over everything else.
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Price action tells us intention, volume does not.
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You've got a slight decline in the average volume for the triple bulls yesterday.
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And if we look at the triple bears for the
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Nasdaq, you can see the volume was slightly above average.
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So no major change yesterday.
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And I certainly wouldn't spend much time
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looking at the volumes as opposed to the actual price action itself.
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Of course, the bull and the bear ETFs on the TSX look very similar.
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Of course, they have less volatility than the triples in the US.
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Now, one of the things I'm watching
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closely, of course, we're anticipating the end of the summer rally this week or next,
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and you can see that the percentage of stocks on the Nasdaq 100 currently trading
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above their 50 day moving average is coming up to the top of the range.
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If we take these three highs here, and I'm
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looking at those highs because they had the most negative reaction
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afterwards, they match up very nicely on this weekly chart to major turning points
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for the Nasdaq over the last couple of years.
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Here we are.
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We're up at the top of the range and we're
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looking for the summer rally to come to an end.
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This is certainly the time and place for that to happen.
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Now, this heat map is a year to date heat map of the S&P 500.
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And you can see, and we've been talking about this, this isn't anything new, but
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you can see most of the gains are from over here.
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They're certainly not from over here.
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And you can see how big these boxes are
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indicating the overall market value of each of these stocks.
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So a handful of stocks have been pulling the market higher this year.
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Now, as of Tuesday night's close, 189 of
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the S&P 500 are still negative for the year.
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And one of the stocks that I watch closely, of course, is Goldman Sachs.
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And we'll take a look at that in a second.
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But you can see that we've got NVIDIA up over 200 %, we've got
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Meta up over 150 %, then we've got Tesla up 138 % in change, we've got Apple up
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nearly 50 %, and we've got Microsoft up nearly 50 % for the year.
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At the same time, and I was shocked to see this, that BlackRock, the big asset
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manager and investment house, is up just a little over 4 % for the year.
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One of the financial stocks that I follow very closely.
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I'm either long or short this stock is actually down 1.78 % for the year so far.
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Nowhere near anything that's a reasonable gain for 2023.
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Of course, the biggest losers in 2023, a
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lot of them are the regional banks in the US, but there are other companies as well,
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such as Advanced Auto Parts, which is down over 50 % on the year.
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Now, looking at the TSX, we're only up a little over 5 % year to date.
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So all of the mutual funds that are
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attached to the TSX that use the TSX as their guidepost are up just a little over
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5 % for the year, less, of course, the actual expenses.
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If we look at a heat map of the TSX, you
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can see how important Shopify is for the gains.
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But look at all this.
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All these banks are negative for the year.
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The railroads are negative for the year.
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Look at all this.
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That is a really ugly heat map if you think that you're in a bull market, which
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is certainly what the major US indices are telling us.
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Right now, or as of Tuesday's close, 84 of
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the 228 stocks on the TSX composite Index are negative for 2023.
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Of course, the big winner on the TSX in
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2023 has been Shopify, up over 88 % as of last night's close.
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The biggest loser on the TSX
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is Telus International down over 50 % for the year.
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Now, yesterday, one of the big winners was the TD Bank.
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We've been watching that stock closely, made a new high for this move, and we saw
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a huge gain for Charles Schwab on a Tuesday up over 12 % on the day.
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Now, let's finish off with a couple of more charts.
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Bitcoin has pulled back over the past
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couple of days, and we're looking at all the Bitcoin related stocks which have
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certainly outperformed the gains in Bitcoin.
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The stocks have done much better than the actual cryptocurrency itself.
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And you can see that as we go through the
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Bitcoin related stocks on the TSX, that they're all pulling back and there's the
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potential for a daily sell signal based on Wednesday's close.
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Okay, folks, that is all I wanted to cover in this morning's presentation.
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We're anticipating the summer rally to come to an end.
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All good things come to an end if you look
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at stock charts and look at the percentage of stocks currently trading above their
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moving averages, when that's going to happen, what the catalyst for that is
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going to be, of course, has yet to be determined.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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