Morning Market Outlook 11102023

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Hello, everyone.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from

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theuptrend.com, and welcome to Friday morning.

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In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures are flat, commodities are mixed with a crude all slightly higher

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while gold is down another $10 in the pre-market on Friday morning.

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Well, there's an old saying in the stock market, never sell on Fridays, and we do

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have some sell signals that you should probably take, but hopefully you'll be

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able to take them at a higher price this morning.

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Generally, Fridays are not bad days for the stock market.

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There are certainly usually good days coming into a long weekend.

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This is not a long weekend.

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It's a remembrance day tomorrow.

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What happened yesterday?

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Well, we saw Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new

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highs with Ethereum moving up nearly 7.50 % on the day.

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It was interesting this time around.

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The pros took control of Bitcoin before they took control of Ethereum.

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Ethereum is certainly trying to make up

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for lost ground and heading right back up to the highs from back earlier this year.

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Looking at the VIX, the VIX moved up yesterday after making a new low.

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There's a reversal in the VIX.

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It could be the start of something.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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We did see bond sell off yesterday that put upward pressure on bond yields and

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that caused the stock market to hit resistance and pull back.

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Now, we've been talking about the SPY all

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week, and unfortunately, yesterday was a bearish day for the SPY.

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It put in a bearish reversal day

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at resistance and filled an open gap, which is no longer open.

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Remember, we were looking to see if the SPY could start closing above

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437.50, if it could fill the gap and continue to move higher.

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The top of the gap was at 438.43. We opened at 438.

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43 yesterday,

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traded a couple of pennies higher and then reversed and headed lower.

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We did put in a higher high, which is bullish.

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At the same time, we closed below the

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previous day's low, which is short term bearish.

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We'll have to see which way we go next.

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Yesterday was a big bar day, and so we're

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going to be looking to see which way we close.

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If we close above yesterday's high, that would certainly be bullish.

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If we close below yesterday's low, that would certainly be bearish.

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There's a pretty good chance we may see an inside day on Friday for the SPY.

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Now, the Nasdaq did something similar.

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It had a bearish reversal day as well.

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It did close below the previous days low.

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We were trying to hit 375, got as high as

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374.80. Now, as I've mentioned many times, you don't want to have your order in right

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at 375, you want to put in it a little less.

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When you look at these profit target lines, what you need to be thinking about

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is that there's a wall of sell orders up there.

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And people are smart enough to know that there's a wall of sell orders up there and

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they want to get their order ahead of other people's orders.

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So they're going to put them in a little less than 3:75.

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So that's how you build up a wall of

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resistance and that's what happened yesterday.

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Now there's no reason that we can't

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continue to move higher if the market wants to.

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The market has been higher than that level

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before, but we're not seeing that on Friday morning, that's for sure.

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So what me worry?

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Bear for Russell Day in the stock market.

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Yeah, well you know what?

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The chips have not participated in this

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rally, and they're getting pretty close to a sell signal.

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We saw mid-cap and small-cap, micro-cap stocks all sell off yesterday.

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So we've got the Russell 2000, we've got

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the Russell micro-caps both back on sell signals as of Thursday's close.

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And we call that the risk-off trade.

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That is not a good sign going forward.

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We were hoping that with the up move in

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the stock market that people would reach down and deepen their pockets and start

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buying those mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap stocks.

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That would give us a sign that the risk on trade was back on and they were really

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wanting the market to continue to move higher.

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But that's not the case at the moment and

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that probably has a lot to do with the shift in bond yields.

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Now looking at the Canadian market, we've

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got an early warning signal up there at the top of the screen.

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We had a bearish reversal day a couple of

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days ago and have not been able to retest that high.

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We are trying to get to $30.47 just above that.

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There's an open gap and right now we're not looking, it doesn't look like we're

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going to be dealing with any of that on Friday.

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We'll be looking at Wednesday's low and to

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see if the Canadian market can hold Wednesday's low.

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If not, we need to close on Friday below

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$29.45, certainly not expecting that to happen.

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Of course, if it doesn't happen on Friday,

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that lower channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Now, what worked?

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Well, the top of the performance list yesterday was all Canadian sectors.

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Energy was the biggest winner.

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Of course, you can see there's no change in trend there.

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No change in trend for materials, no change in trend for financials.

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Still on a buy signal, making a new high yesterday.

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Then we had utilities move up.

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We also had Canadian banks move up.

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Didn't make a new high.

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We've got financials, utilities and banks still on buy signals.

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No change in trend there.

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Let's finish off with a quick look at the energy sector.

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We'll start off with crude oil, which had an inside day on Thursday.

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Natural gas continued to move lower. Where did it land?

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We'll write on a support at 3.32, closed at 3.33 yesterday.

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If we break this, 3.13 and 2.93 come into play.

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Then looking at the Canadian energy

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sector, we looked at this chart a couple of seconds ago.

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We're still on a sell signal here, but you

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can see the market is trying to hold $16 on this particular ETF.

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It'll be quite a tell if we start breaking through that $16 level.

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Of course, if the energy sector is falling, you can make money by buying the

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Bear, Horizon Beta Pro ETF, which is on a buy signal right now.

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Looking at individual stocks, Baytech on a sell signal, no change there.

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Crescent Point, for some reason the market

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really does not like Crescent Point at the moment.

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They like Athabasca Oil Sands a lot better.

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It is still on a sell signal, but you can see compared to the other energy stocks,

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including Whitecap, the Athabasca is certainly standing out at the moment.

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It is still moving down.

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There's no change in trend here.

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It was an inside day on Thursday, and then

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Whitecap, which made a new closing low on Thursday, not looking very healthy at the

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moment, a series of lower highs and lower lows.

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Now, as we know, every sector gets its chance and there's a time to own energy

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stocks and a time not to own energy stocks.

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Right now is not the time to own energy stocks.

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One last chart this morning out of those

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Big Cap seven technology stocks we've been following.

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We've noted Tesla did not really participate in the rally so far and

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yesterday it proved it by generating a sell signal.

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So once again, we've gone from being long Tesla to being short Tesla.

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Okay, folks, that is all for today's presentation.

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That's all from me for this week.

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Have a great day, have a great weekend, and hopefully you'll get some time to

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remember those who came before us and served.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday.

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