Monday Market Outlook 03112024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheUpTrend.
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com I'll keep this video very short.
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I know a lot of people have trouble adjusting to the time change on Monday
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morning, and so I won't keep you too long at all.
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Now, this is a make or break week for the market.
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The market had a huge shift on Friday, a lot of bearish reversal signals, and so
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we're looking to see if the market continues to push down from here.
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Looking at a weekly chart of the VIX,
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we're still on a sell sell signal that's supportive for higher stock prices.
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So right now, coming into Monday's trading
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action, we're still long term bullish on the market.
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That would change if the VIX were to close above 15.
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28 this coming Friday.
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Now, on a short term basis, we have been
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short term bearish for the last couple of days as the VIX has been on a buy signal.
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That would change on Monday if the VIX were to close below 13.
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70.
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Now, on Friday, we had a huge move in the
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market to the downside and a big bearish reversal day.
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Lots and lots of bearish reversal signals from Friday's trading action.
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Now, these signals come up all the time.
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And the first thing we look for, of
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course, is did we close below the previous day's low?
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And looking at NVIDIA, you can see that that is certainly the case.
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Now, NVIDIA was down over $51 on Friday.
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It's up $10 in the pre-market last time I checked.
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So there is an immediate rush to sell the stock on Monday morning.
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We'll just have to wait and see how the day closes.
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But on Monday, we're looking for a closed below $814.
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11. And as I mentioned, there was an enormous
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amount of bearish reversal signals on Friday.
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Amd was another stock that hit a new high
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and reversed and closed below the previous day's low.
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And so there was a lot of wide bar days on Friday, and that is quite a concern.
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Certainly no sell signals, but of course, you've been taking money off the table as
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these stocks have been rising, so you're not overly concerned at the moment.
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There's the SMH for the semiconductor sector, and as you
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can see, the whole sector rolled over on Friday.
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Now, looking at a weekly chart of the S&P 500, you're not going to see a lot of
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major changes from last week's trading activity.
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We're going to be watching the daily charts closely.
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You can see for the SPY, we're still trading above the upper channel line.
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The Nasdaq traded into the channel, looking for a close on Monday below $436.
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58 to give Give the triple Q's a new daily sell signal.
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Now, the iShares for the TSX-60 made a new
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high on Friday, closed slightly lower on the day, so no major change there.
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Commodity stocks helping the TSX up last week.
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Now, the big winner from last week's
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trading action was actually the gold miners.
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In the US, they were up 8. 45%.
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In Canada, they were up 7.
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76%.
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We also saw silver miners up over 6%,
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nearly 7% on the week, and copper miners had a nice big week.
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Those were the major winners last week, which is quite unusual for the market.
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Very helpful for the Canadian market, not that helpful for the US market.
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Now, the big losers were pharmaceuticals and biotechs in the US.
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In Canada, the big loser was actually the
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energy sector, which wasn't down that much.
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So you can see we're up at a resistance here at the 17.
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19 level, looking for a move up to 18. 75.
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If we can take out the highs from last summer.
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And so far, we have not been able to do that.
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And that was previous resistance from the
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previous year, from October of the previous year.
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So that is long term resistance for the Canadian energy sector.
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For the USA energy sector, we were up over 1% on the week.
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We're stuck here at 87. 50.
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You can see that last summer we were up at the 93.
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75 level. That could happen this year as we head
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towards summer, starting to come out of the winter, heading towards summer.
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93. 75 would be our next target for the XLE.
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Now, we're almost done here.
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As I mentioned, I'm going to keep this one very short.
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I'm watching a couple of stocks very closely.
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Apple had a positive day on Friday, holding support at 168.
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75.
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If that breaks this week, then we're looking for a move down to 162.
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50. Then looking at Shopify on the TSX, and we
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traded through the upper channel line on Friday.
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A close above $104.
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53 on Monday would give us a new buy signal.
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Still trying to hold $100 as support.
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And then looking at Tesla.
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Tesla had a down day on Friday.
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It didn't break down below the previous day's low.
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We are looking to hold support here at the at the 171.
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88 level. If that breaks, then 156.
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25 would be our next target to the downside.
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It would be very bullish for the market if
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these stocks were to turn around and start moving higher.
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So far, from what we're seeing in the
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pre-market on Monday, This morning, that's not likely to happen on Monday.
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We do have all three of these stocks
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actually trading slightly higher last time I checked in the pre-market.
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And last up this morning, looking at the
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cover from this week's Barons, Bet on the Bull.
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Barons has a history of making huge, huge mistakes when it comes to market calls.
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And so a lot of people are wondering, is this the top for the market?
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If Barrens is telling you to bet on the bull, this is probably the time that the
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market will start to turn around and head lower.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Have a great day.
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Next time, you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.
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And at that time, I'm going to take a closer look at the Canadian gold sector.

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