Welcome To November 11012023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures are slightly below fair value.

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We do have some economic numbers coming

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out this morning, but the world is going to sit and wait for the Fed meeting.

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And that event starts this afternoon after 2:00 PM.

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Now, the month of October was a pretty crappy month.

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This is a pretty good image to sum it up.

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My pumpkin just looked at the chart of the Russell 2000.

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And yeah, a lot of people are feeling that way right now.

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When we look at the month of November,

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statistically, it is a bullish month about 80 % of the time.

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What these particular numbers and dates don't show you is that we can always start

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the November rally from a lower or lower than where we are right now.

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So just because you have statistics that say that we're going to be up 80 % of the

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time doesn't mean you jump in with both feet right now.

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We may actually be able to jump in with both feet later at a lower price point.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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For the month of October, the S&P 500 was

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down 2.17 %, still up over nine % year to date.

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The Nasdaq was down 2.07 %, still up over 31 % year to date.

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A little more weakness in the Russell

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2000, down nearly 7% for the month, down nearly 6% year to date.

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And then when we look at the microcap

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stocks, we're down over seven % for the month, down over 13 % year to date.

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And if you look back, you can see that

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we're trading back at levels from 2019, 2020.

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Then looking at the Canadian market, the

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TSX was down 3.42 %, down 2.64 % year to date.

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And then looking at the Venture exchange,

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we're down 7.66 % for the month of October, down nearly 10 % year to date.

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And again, we're going back to levels we haven't seen since 2019, 2020.

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Now looking at daily charts, the VIX came down yesterday.

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It is back on a sell signal that's supported for higher stock prices.

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This tells us that options traders are a

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little less cautious coming into November first.

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We did see the DAO trade up into the channel yesterday.

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The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both traded

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up to the lower channel line, so still no buy signals just yet.

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The Russell 2000 also traded up to the

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lower channel line, and the microcap sector closed in the channel.

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Looking at the Canadian market, the

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iShares for the TSX 60 had an inside day yesterday.

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Now, one of the stocks that helped hold

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the TSX in check on Tuesday was the biggest loser on Monday, and it continued

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to move lower on Tuesday, and that's First Quantum.

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We came into Monday's trading action already on a daily sell signal, a weekly

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sell signal, and position traders were also on a sell signal.

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So really, nobody was very bullish on this stock coming into Monday's trading action.

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And the biggest loser on the S&P 500 on

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Monday also continued to move lower on Tuesday, and that was On Semiconductor.

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Again, already on a weekly sell signal and

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position traders were already on a sell signal.

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So no real surprise that the stock continued to move lower.

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Of course, what was an open gap on the way

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down would probably act as resistance on the way back up.

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Now, in the pre-market this morning, Paycom is down sharply in the premarket.

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We also Advanced Micro Devices unwinding some of the gains from yesterday.

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In both cases, no change in trend.

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If you're short either of those stocks, you can continue to remain short.

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Now, while the world is waiting for the Fed, a lot of the financial community is

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watching the Japanese Central Bank and Japanese stocks and higher after Bank

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of Japan allows greater flexibility in yields.

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They may start to pump up their interest rates over the next little while.

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That hasn't started yet, but it may start anytime.

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Japanese stocks were up yesterday.

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We expect a lot more volatility out of the Japanese market.

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If we look at what happened in the

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currency market, you can see on Monday, we had a buy signal.

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Tuesday, a big reversal to the downside for the Japanese Yen.

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And then compare that to the US dollar.

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Us dollar is still fairly stable.

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We entered this trading range back in the

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middle of September and have been trading sideways ever since.

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So they're probably waiting for the Fed

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meeting or some major catalyst to help move the currency market.

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If we look at the midterm chart for the US

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dollar index, you can see that we're down near 105, and that's where a real change

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in trend would happen if the US dollar index were to come down below that level.

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Let's do a quick update on our seven stocks.

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Actually, there's eight stocks in this list this morning.

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We have two of the eight back on buy signals, one never left.

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If we start off with Alphabet, you can see

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a fairly quiet trading close lower on Tuesday.

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Amazon is on its second day of a buy signal.

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Remember, we did this back in October, so

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we're looking for a breakout above the October high and the open gap.

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Then looking at the Apple, still on a sell

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signal here, no change in trend, no change in trend for Meta, and no change in trend

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for Microsoft, inside day on Tuesday for Microsoft.

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Inside Day on Tuesday from Microsoft,

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there's NVIDIA making a new low for this move on Tuesday.

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And then we also had a new low for Tesla

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before Tesla recovered and actually closed higher on the day.

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Certainly, nowhere near a buy signal coming into Tuesday's trading action.

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And last up, I added Shopify to this list, new low for Shopify on Tuesday, and then

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came back and closed slightly higher on the day.

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Again, no change in trend.

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Let's finish off looking at the metals and miners.

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Copper is on its third day of a buy signal right now.

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At the same time, copper stocks made a new

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closing low for this move on Tuesday, so no change in trend there.

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It's always important to remember that if

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you're involved in the commodity, you follow the commodity.

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If you're involved in stocks, you follow the stocks.

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The fact that copper may get a buy signal does not mean you do anything specifically

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with stocks unless stocks generate a buy signal.

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There's absolutely no reason that you use one for the other.

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Sometimes rising metal prices can be supportive for stocks.

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Sometimes it can't.

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At the end of the day, you're trading stocks.

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You're not actually trading the commodity.

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That's also true for gold.

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Gold pulled back yesterday.

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It's still having trouble breaking out

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above 2,000, and gold stocks on the GDX came back down.

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They're still on a sell signal.

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No change there.

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New change in trend for the

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AXGD, which is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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Then looking at the price of silver still

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in the channel, still on a buy signal, that would change on Wednesday with a

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close below $22.71. Then we have silver stocks back on a sell signal.

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Looking at the Silver Miners Index, the

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SIL, that is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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The market will be sitting on its hands until 2:00 PM this afternoon.

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I think most people think that the Fed is going to pause, but

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it always matters what adverbs and adjectives the Fed uses when it describes

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how it's thinking and what it may do in the future.

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That's where all the volatility comes from.

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So have a great day, folks.

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And next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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