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00:00:00Hello, everyone.
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00:00:01It's Stephen White side here from the
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00:00:03uptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:08Well, we made it through month end and we
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00:00:10were looking for some selling this week and we got some selling.
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00:00:14In fact, this week was a very sloppy week.
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00:00:17Starting on Monday, we had a bearish reversal day on the DOW.
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00:00:20We saw fall through to the downside on Tuesday, which tells us that Monday should
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00:00:25be the high for this particular move in the market.
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00:00:28We continued to see fall through to the
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00:00:30downside on Wednesday, and that's after the market was able to react to the
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00:00:36Fed Minutes and to the Fed Press Conference.
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00:00:39We also continued down on Thursday.
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00:00:42Now, coming in to Friday, we had the employment numbers and the market reacted
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00:00:46very positively to positive employment numbers.
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00:00:50And that is a little bizarre.
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00:00:52Those positive employment numbers basically tell the Fed that they have no
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00:00:56reason to stop raising interest rates at this time.
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00:01:00And so what I would have assumed would have caused the market to sell off on
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00:01:05Friday, caused the market to actually go up on the day.
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00:01:09Now, the DOW and the S&P 500 traded down to the 200 day moving average and bounced.
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00:01:14So that is still a significant area of support.
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00:01:18Now, moving from daily to weekly charts, the DOW was actually the biggest loser of
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00:01:22the four major indices that we follow, down 1.26 %.
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00:01:26Notice how big the bar is.
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00:01:27It traded all the way down to the lower channel line after making a higher high
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00:01:32this week, we closed right at the upper channel line.
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00:01:36So certainly the DOW could generate a sell
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00:01:38signal this week with a close below $328.58. Now, the S&P 500 it's still
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00:01:45closed above the upper channel line, down a little over three quarters of a %.
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00:01:49Notice where resistance is, the high from
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00:01:51earlier this year, just above where we traded up to this week.
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00:01:55So we may be able to test that this week.
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00:01:59Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq had an interesting week, actually an inside
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00:02:03week with a double top there up at 323.76. So it's just we're a whisper away from
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00:02:11making a new high for the Nasdaq this week.
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00:02:14Then looking at the semiconductors, they had an inside week down ever so slightly.
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00:02:19And then looking at the Canadian market, the ishares for the TSX 60 closed down
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00:02:23just under half a % after making a new high for this move.
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00:02:28Now, there was a lot of stocks that had very exaggerated moves this week,
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00:02:32including Shopify up over 26 % on the week.
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00:02:36Then we saw Thompson Reuter's down just under 10 %.
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00:02:41We saw Gildan Activewear down over 10 % on the week.
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00:02:45Now, Walgreens was the biggest loser on the DOW this week, down 8.7 %.
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00:02:50The biggest winner on the S&P 500 was
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00:02:52Royal Caribbean, up 15.56 %, followed by Live Nation, up 13.84 %.
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00:02:59Then down at the bottom of the list, we
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00:03:01had CBS Paramount down over 27 % on the week.
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00:03:05That was a huge move lower, followed by Estee Lauder down 17.5 %.
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00:03:10In both cases, we're still holding the lows from last fall.
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00:03:14We'll have to see if those lows continue this week.
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00:03:16Rubbermaid, on the other hand, have already broken through the fall lows, and
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00:03:21they've broken through the 2023 lows, down 16.79 %.
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00:03:26Now, regional banks are still in the news, and I just want to make something very
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00:03:30clear, even though we're looking at these charts.
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00:03:33I have never bought a regional bank.
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00:03:35I have no interest in any of these regional banks.
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00:03:39We are watching the regional bank sector closely because it is a financial crisis
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00:03:44that could roll over into other areas of financial markets.
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00:03:49We know that already. It's already happened,
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00:03:51but it could continue to get worse and pull down the US financial system.
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00:03:57So that's why we're watching them closely.
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00:04:00I would not buy any of these individually.
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00:04:03Now, if you want to be involved in this
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00:04:06sector, do it through the ETF and spread your risk out.
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00:04:11Now, the ETF was down again over 10 %, making a new low for this move.
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00:04:17If it starts to turn around, if you think regional banks are going to get saved, if
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00:04:20you think that there's light at the end of the tunnel, then do the ETF.
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00:04:24Don't do the individual regional banks.
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00:04:27Now, they are incredibly volatile.
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00:04:30And on Friday, we saw some huge numbers that have attracted a lot of people.
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00:04:36And the only people that those huge
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00:04:38numbers benefit, are the people that bought on Thursday.
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00:04:41And so, for example, Zion was up nearly 20 % on Friday.
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00:04:45The one everybody's talking about is PacWest, which was up over 80 % on Friday.
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00:04:50The only people that benefit from that are the people that bought on Thursday.
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00:04:54Can you imagine buying a regional bank on
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00:04:56Thursday after it made a new low and broke down below the low from March?
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00:05:01Can you believe that?
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00:05:02But that's the type of risk you have to take.
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00:05:04But that's not the type of risk we want to take.
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00:05:08That would just not be a good thing.
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00:05:10Please don't do that.
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00:05:13These regional banks are all one press release away from being worthless.
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00:05:18So please don't be buying individual regional banks.
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00:05:24Now, this seems like a very good place to
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00:05:26drop in a little tutorial on the mathematics of loss.
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00:05:29This is not something they teach you in school.
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00:05:32Let's say, for example, you had a regional
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00:05:34bank that was trading at $100 two years ago.
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00:05:37It's now down $95, currently trading at $5.
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00:05:41It's pretty easy for a high school student
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00:05:43to figure out you've lost 95 % of the value of this particular stock.
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00:05:49Now, the problem is how much does the
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00:05:50stock have to go up for you to get your money back?
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00:05:53If you ask nine out of 10 people on the street, they'll tell you, Well, it has to
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00:05:56go up 100 % for you to get your money back, at least.
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00:06:00And they're totally wrong.
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00:06:02That's not how much it has to go up.
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00:06:0495 %, 100 % isn't going to get you your money back.
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00:06:07In this particular example, it's got to go up 1900 % for you to get your money back.
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00:06:14And that's not something that
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00:06:16statistically is going to happen, maybe not in your lifetime.
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00:06:21So a lot of people end up going down with the ship and the ship never rises again.
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00:06:30I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but
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00:06:32at one time, the US had a very vibrant savings and loan industry,
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00:06:37and that all dried up when the savings and loan industry collapsed.
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00:06:40And there's a pretty good chance that the
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00:06:42regional bank industry is also going to collapse in the US.
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00:06:46And some of these stocks will just never, ever, ever recover.
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00:06:51Let's move on to commodities.
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00:06:53It was a negative week for energy with crude oil down 6.31 %.
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00:06:5862.50 still holding as support.
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00:07:01I think the low of the week was 63.
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00:07:04So if that breaks, then $50 would be our next target to the downside.
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00:07:08Natural gas down nearly 10 % on the week.
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00:07:10If you look at our weekly price targets, 156 is our next target.
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00:07:14The daily target right now is 234.
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00:07:18Below that is 156.
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00:07:20So we're still holding at the 234 level.
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00:07:23We closed at 232.
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00:07:25The high of the week was 234.90. So we're still stuck to the 234 level.
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00:07:30Was expecting more of a bounce.
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00:07:32We did see some buying in April, but nothing to take us up to 313 or 391.
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00:07:39Still waiting for that to happen.
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00:07:41Looking at energy stocks, they were down on both sides of the border. order, back
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00:07:45on sell signals for the TSX and for the SPY Energy Sector ETF, both
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00:07:51down, closing below the lower channel line this week.
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00:07:55Now looking at the mining sector, starting with copper.
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00:07:59Copper was down ever so slightly on the week, so no aggressive selling in copper.
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00:08:04Gold, on the other hand, made a new high
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00:08:05for this move, pulling back, going into the end of the week.
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00:08:09We're still stuck to 2,000.
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00:08:11Our next target is 2,125.
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00:08:13Silver is still stuck to 25.
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00:08:15Our next target is 28. 12.
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00:08:18Then looking at the mining stocks, the GDX was up 5.42 %, still stuck to 34.38.
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00:08:26And then looking at the XGD.TO, it was also up on the week, up 4.34 %, still
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00:08:33stuck to $20.31. Let's finish off this weekend's
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00:08:38presentation with the VIX or the fear index.
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00:08:42If you're a long term investor, we're still long term bullish on the market.
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00:08:46That would change this coming Friday if
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00:08:48the VIX were to close above $22.38. Now, if you're a short term
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00:08:53trader, it's been pretty sloppy the last couple of weeks.
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00:08:56We went on a buy signal, then a sell signal, this week another buy signal.
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00:09:01Coming into Monday's trading action, we're still on a buy signal.
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00:09:04We traded down to the lower channel line
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00:09:06on Friday looking for a close below 1685 on Monday to give us a sell signal, and
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00:09:12that would turn us short term bullish on the market.
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00:09:16Looking at the price targets, you can see that we traded up towards the 21.88 level.
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00:09:21You can see support at 15.63 is currently holding.
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00:09:25Now up at that 21.88 level, that's where you get the 200 day moving average.
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00:09:30You can see it's been a while since we punched through that.
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00:09:33That is currently acting as resistance.
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00:09:37Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:09:40Last week was very sloppy.
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00:09:42A lot of traders and investors were on the wrong side of individual stocks, and we
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00:09:47saw huge explosions in the opposite direction.
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00:09:52A lot of those stocks I wouldn't be chasing higher at the moment.
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00:09:56Enjoy the rest of your weekend. Next time you'll hear my
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00:09:59voice is on Tuesday morning.