Stock Market Trends - Weekend Edition 09102023

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Hello, everyone, it's Stephen Whiteside

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here from TheUptrend.com with your ten second market update.

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If you're a long term investor, all you

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really need to know is that it was an inside week.

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Now, if you don't know what an inside week is, it's similar to an inside day.

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It's where the trading activity fit within the previous bar's range.

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So in this case, the S and P 500 traded within the the previous bar's range.

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So the last trading week of August and

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what we're looking for now is we're looking for a breakout above the previous

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week's high or a breakdown below the previous week's low.

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An inside week, an inside bar is a bar of indecision.

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It's a pause, it's a break.

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The market just wants to wait and get more

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evidence that they should be bullish or they should be bearish.

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Now, in September, there's usually a bearish bias to the month.

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So at some point I think we're going to break down below the previous week's low.

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Now, when we look at the VIX, the VIX also had an inside week.

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So a week of indecision.

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Again, we're looking at for a breakout or breakdown.

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And if you look at this daily chart, you

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can see where the recent low was and the recent high.

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On Thursday, we traded above the upper channel line but did not close there.

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So now on Monday, we're going to be

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looking for a close above $15.32 to give us a new buy signal for the VIX.

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And of course, if that were to happen,

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that would probably be negative for the stock market.

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Now, as we've discussed previously, the

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months of September and October are not usually good for the stock market.

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There's usually additional volatility.

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If we're going to see a significant sell off in September and October, we need the

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VIX to start punching out above the 200 day moving average.

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And as you can see, it's been a while since we've done that.

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So in August, the 200 day moving average held us in check.

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Will it do so again in September?

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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But if you're expecting a significant sell

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off, that's going to be the first clue that it's starting, will be if we start

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punching out above the 200 day moving average.

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Now, if you've been with us for any length

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of time, you've heard me say that news is noise, it's a constant chatter.

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For some people, news is very important.

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For me, it doesn't really matter if I've

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got business television on, I usually have the volume off.

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There's a handful of people I turn the

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volume on for or go looking for their interviews afterwards.

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But I'm really not going to react to the news at all because there's absolutely no

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guarantee how the market will react to news.

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The fact that there's a positive number or somebody beats expectations, that's no

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guarantee the stock's going up and there's absolutely no rule, no guarantee that if

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there's negative news, if a company disappoints, if economic numbers are worse

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than expected, there's no guarantee the market's going down.

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Every situation is different.

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None of them can be replicated.

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People think that if the bond yields cross, that's a bad thing.

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And sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't.

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So I want to react to how the market reacts to the news, not how

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I think the market should react to the news.

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Now. The US.

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Dollar index continued to move higher.

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Sometimes that's good for the stock market, sometimes that's bad.

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Right now, I think it's putting a little pressure on the stock market.

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When we look at the metals, the price of

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copper came down, so it's still not trending higher at the moment.

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The price of gold was down $24.40 on the

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week, but still, like the rest of the market, pretty quiet.

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Some more aggressive selling in the price

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of silver, which was down 5.65% on the week.

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Then when we look at the energy sector,

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this isn't good for fighting inflation to see crude oil continue to move higher.

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It was up another $2.10 on the week.

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When we look at the price target chart, it

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looks like 87 50 is not really that significant.

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If we go back, there's more resistance at 93 75.

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We peaked at $100 back at the start of

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2022 and got up as high as the 100 and 625 level.

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So not expecting a lot of long term resistance at 87 50.

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Certainly there's some short term resistance, but not long term resistance.

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So we could see crude oil continue to move

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sharply higher from where we are right now.

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Natural gas, on the other hand, is still just treading water for some reason.

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In 2023, nobody wants to bid up natural

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gas, but that could change by the time the year ends.

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Then looking at the iShares for the TSX 60, it was an inside week.

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Yes, we pulled back.

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That didn't close below the previous week's low.

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Then looking at the Dow, you can see we

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dipped down to the lower channel line, SP 500 we talked about earlier.

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The Nasdaq 100 also had an inside week.

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What didn't have an inside week?

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Well, semiconductors.

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The chip sector closed below the previous week's low.

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That's not a bullish sign.

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Now, I've been talking about financial

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services in the banking sector, not an area I actively trade.

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I have a couple of stocks that I follow,

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but I'm really not overly interested in this sector myself.

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But many people are, especially long term

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investors trying to generate dividend income.

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And you can see it was a very quiet week for the Spyder Financials.

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We saw banks trade down and close just above the lower channel line, while the

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regional banks actually generated a weekly sell signal.

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So they're back on a weekly sell signal.

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When we look at the US.

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Insurance companies, they had an inside

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week, and they're holding up much better than the banks themselves.

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Then looking at the Canadian market,

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looking at the TSX Financial Index, it had an inside week.

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Banks, on the other hand, closed below the previous week's low.

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So that's not a good sign.

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Now, for the markets to really turn

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around, we're going to want to see the banks turn around.

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And you can see the Royal Bank is dealing with the summer lows at the moment.

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And you can see we peaked here at the start of the year.

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Banks usually get money coming into them during RSP season.

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And then we made a lower high, a lower high, we made a low and a lower low.

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And now it's going to be really

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interesting for the year end to see if that low can hold or if we break that.

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That's probably not going to be a good sign going forward.

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And then a much weaker looking chart.

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Bank of America again, we want to get these banks back on buy signals.

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That would be a sign that the overall

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market is fairly healthy as opposed to the current market that we're in, where it's

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really just the tech stocks holding the market up.

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Let's finish off this weekend's

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presentation, looking at four tech stocks that we love to follow.

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Two of them are on sell signals, two of them still on buy signals.

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Apple rolled over on Wednesday, continued to move lower on Thursday, and was up ever

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so slightly on Friday, up $0.62. So they tried to fill the open gap.

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You can see we're holding support at 175.

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We traded below it on Thursday.

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If we take out the low and then we'll try to hold, use the August low as support.

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Otherwise we're heading down to 168 75 and then probably 162 50.

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Looking at NVIDIA .

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NVIDIA rolled over on Thursday, generating a sell signal on Friday.

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It was fairly quiet trading.

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We didn't take out Thursday's low, but we still closed lower on the day.

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And then looking at shopify.

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Shopify hit the upper channel line on

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Friday, looking for a close on Monday below 87.02, and then for Tesla.

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Tesla still on a buy signal here.

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Things would change on Monday if Tesla were to close below $241.80. Of course, in

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both cases, if they don't close below those levels on Monday, those lower

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channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily.

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The Shopify one is going to move faster than the Tesla lower channel line will.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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