Morning Market Outlook 11272023

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good morning everyone and welcome to Monday Morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from TheU

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pTrend.Com in the pre market this morning things are fairly quiet.

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We don't have any economic numbers coming out in the pre market this morning.

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We do have home sales coming out later this morning but so far stock index

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futures are slightly below fair value while commodities are mixed.

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Crude oil is trading slightly lower while

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gold is up another $10 in the pre market market on Monday morning.

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Well so far for the month of November things have been very bullish.

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We've got the S&P 500, SPY ETF up 8.87%, the triple Q's for the Nasdaq 100 are up a

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tick over 11% and the Ishares for the TSX 60 are up 6.19% for the month of November.

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So far the biggest winners in November have been US Homebuilders in the US up

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over 15% and US Regional Banks up just under 12% for the month.

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Of course there's no change in trend there for the regional banks.

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Looking at the VIX, the weekly VIX chart was down another nearly 10% on the week.

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And so we're going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the

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VIX does not close above $18.58 this coming Friday.

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Now if you're watching the market on Monday, we're going to remain short term

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bullish on the market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.56 on Monday.

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And of course if that doesn't happen on

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Monday that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Looking at the seasonality chart of the VIX for the last week of November, the VIX

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actually historically has moved up, which means there's been a little downward

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pressure on the stock market for the next couple of days.

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Of course we're coming into month end and month end typically has a bullish bias as

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the market prepares for automatic money to hit the market over the month end period.

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Now for some people they're looking at the

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activity we're seeing in November as the Year End Rally.

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Well we are looking for it to continue.

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And for it to continue we've got a little checklist.

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We were looking for the market to make

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higher highs, we were looking for the chips to move higher.

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We are also looking for the risk off market to come back.

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That means those small and micro cap

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stocks and we were looking for falling commodity prices which are bullish for the

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US market, but not necessarily bullish for the Canadian market as so much of our

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market is tied up in commodity related stocks.

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So starting off looking at those higher

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highs, we have not seen a higher high for Alphabet so far.

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We have for Amazon and Apple for Meta.

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For Microsoft.

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Microsoft's been on quite a tear since the start of October.

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Nvidia actually ended Friday on a sell signal.

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We closed just below the lower channel line.

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So we'll have to see if that continues.

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But Nvidia did put in a higher high and then shopify another stock that's put in a

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higher high, whether you're looking at it in New York or Toronto.

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And then last up, Tesla.

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Tesla has not put in a higher high.

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It got up, filled the open gap, and so far that level has been holding us in check.

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Looking for a close on Monday below 226.40 to give us a new sell signal for Tesla.

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Now of course, the market has continued to be led higher by the tech sector.

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And looking at the XLK, we made a higher

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high on Wednesday before pulling back and closing down.

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There the low of the day on Wednesday and then a small lower close on Friday.

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So nothing to get overly worried about so far.

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Now the chip sector has moved up and it

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has started to trade above the October highs, but it's still stuck at resistance

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at $200 here and it would be nice to see the chip sector start to break out.

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Of course, with Nvidia pulling back over

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the last couple of days, that hasn't helped.

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If we do break out above the recent high,

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then there is an open gap up here under the 212.

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50 level that could act as a target and an area of resistance.

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But if we can continue higher from here,

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that certainly would be supportive for a year end rally.

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Now when we talk about the risk off trade,

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that's the time and place where investors just don't want to invest in those small

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micro cap stocks that generally don't make any money.

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But we are seeing the Next G en Nasdaq 100 move up.

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It is still stuck at $25, closed at $24.98 on Friday.

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So if we can start breaking out above 25,

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that would be supportive for a year end rally.

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If we look at the Ishares for the Russell 2000, we hit 181.

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25 and have not gone back to retest.

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That level would certainly be very positive to break out above the 181.

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25 level.

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And then looking at the Ishares for the micro cap sector, we're trading above the

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$100 level, which is bullish, and looking to move up to 103.13 as our next target.

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And then looking at the TSX Small Cap index, we're still on a buy signal here

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and we're still on a buy signal for the Venture Exchange.

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Both of those are very supportive for a year end rally.

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Let's finish off looking at commodity prices and no joy for crude oil.

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It had an inside day on Friday, it's down in the pre market this morning.

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No joy for natural gas making a new low on Friday.

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And then looking at Canadian energy stocks

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closing at the lower channel line on Friday, whereas US energy stocks closed up

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just below the upper channel line on Friday.

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So little divergence there between Canadian and US energy stocks.

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And then looking at the mining sector.

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We've got Gold had an inside day on Friday.

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Looks like it's going to trade up another $10.

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It closed up $10 on Friday.

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We may move up another $10 today.

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Silver made a new high for this move on

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Friday and it is trading higher in the pre market.

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So we've got the GDX and the XGD both on buy signals.

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And then we've got Silver miners making a new closing high on Friday for this move,

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running up to the highs that we saw in September.

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And hopefully we can take a run at those August highs in the not so distant future.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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So far it looks like we're going to have a

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weak opening on Monday, but nothing that's going to disturb anything.

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Remember, it isn't a down day.

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We're not that concerned if the market closes lower.

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We are concerned if the market closes below the previous day's low.

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That's when things start to change.

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Please enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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