Morning Market Outlook 12192023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from T heUpTrend.com In the pre market this
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morning, stock index futures are trading above fair value.
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So so far, it looks like investors want to
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do a little buying at the open on Tuesday morning.
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Looking at the CNN fear and greed index, we have made it up into extreme greed.
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We haven't made it up all the way to the top.
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Nobody says we have to actually do that, but this is a good indication that this is
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not the time to be putting new money into the stock market.
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Now, we normally look to New York and
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Toronto for guidance on what's going to happen next in the markets.
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But what's been going on over the last seven weeks has a lot more to do with the
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people in Chicago than it does with the people in New York or Toronto.
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Looking at the VIX, the VIX is still on a daily sell signal.
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That would change on Tuesday if we were to
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close above 12.96. And then looking at the bond market, we've got ten year yields.
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We are seeing panic selling at the moment.
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It's currently ranked as zero.
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We've come down to the 391 level that's currently acting as support.
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And you can see that on the right side chart.
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We had an inside day yesterday, an inside day the day before.
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And so we're looking to see if bond yields start to move back up.
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That would, of course, be on the back of falling bond prices.
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We're currently seeing panic buying in the bond market.
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The ten year note has run up to 112.
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50 and stopped over the last couple of days.
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It could continue its climb.
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And if it could continue to move higher,
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that would be supportive for higher stock prices.
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If we start to pull back and get a sell
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signal here, that, of course would be negative for the stock market.
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And of course, as a consumer, you can
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watch that in the TLT or in the XBB traded in Toronto.
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If we see sell signals in either of those,
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that of course would be very negative for the stock market.
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Now, speaking of the stock market, the
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ishares for the TSX 60 had an inside day on Monday.
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The big winner on the TSX was one of the
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big losers from last week, and that was Dollarama.
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That was the big gainer.
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Then looking at the Dow, new high for the Dow.
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And the big winner on the Dow was also one
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of the big losers from last week, and that was Procter and Gamble.
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Still, both Dollarama and Procter and Gamble are on daily sell signals.
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That has not changed.
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There's the S&P 500 moving up yesterday, the big winner on the S&P 500 was Etsy.
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Still on a buy signal, no change in trend.
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Then looking at the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq made a new high yesterday.
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What didn't make a new high?
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Well, the Equal Weighted ETF actually had an inside day of an inside day.
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That's also true of the Next Gen Nasdaq stocks.
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That ETF also had an inside day of an inside day.
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Now, it was the world's greatest amusement park that led the Nasdaq higher on Monday.
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And that, of course, was Costco.
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A couple of those next generation stocks people were asking me about yesterday,
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both Coinbase moving up yesterday, still on a buy signal.
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No change in trend.
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And no change in trend for Square.
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Both still on buy signals.
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Let's finish off today's presentation.
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Looking at commodity etfs, and we've got
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the USo back on a buy signal as of Monday's close.
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Joining gasoline already on a buy signal.
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And then we had natural gas trade up to the channel.
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So a close above $5.06 on Tuesday would give us a buy signal for natural gas.
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Inside day yesterday for the GLD.
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No change in trend there.
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Then we've got palladium continuing to
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move higher, making a new high for this move.
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Platinum moved up slightly on Monday.
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And then looking at the SLV we pulled back yesterday, still on a buy signal.
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That would change on Tuesday with a close
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below $21.50. Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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We've talked about selling over the past week and locking in some profits.
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There's no reason to completely liquidate any position until you get a sell signal,
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but it's prudent that you do lock in some profits.
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Stocks usually fall faster than they rise, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some
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aggressive selling in the month of January.
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Enjoy the rest of your day, folks.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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