Monday Morning Market Outlook 03182024
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    • 00:00:00
      Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.
    • 00:00:02
      It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
    • 00:00:05
      com. In the pre-market this morning, stock
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      index futures are trading above fair value, being led higher by the Nasdaq.
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      While commodities are mixed, crude oil is
    • 00:00:14
      higher, while gold is slightly lower on Monday morning.
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      Now, between now and when the market
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      opens, there's no economic numbers coming out to throw the market off.
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      Now, in today's presentation, we're going
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      to be focused on weekly charts, so this is a longer term look at the market.
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      Of course, we posted daily charts on the weekend.
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      If you're a subscriber, of course, you've
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      been in and looked at your daily charts in this presentation.
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      We're going to be catching up on all the weekly charts.
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      Starting off with the VIX, the The VIX
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      traded above the upper channel line last week but did not close above it.
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      We're going to remain long term bullish on
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      the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.
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      35 this coming Friday.
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      Now, we do have a Fed meeting this week,
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      and so the It may want to pause a bit before.
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      Some of the charts certainly look like the market paused last week ahead of this Fed
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      meeting, so we'll just have to wait and see.
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      Of course, the meeting starts on Tuesday,
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      ends on Wednesday, and Wednesday afternoon is when all the fun starts.
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      Now, starting off looking at the Dow Diamonds.
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      We've got an early warning signal up there
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      at the top of the screen, and we've been stuck at resistance for the
    • 00:01:24
      last month, and we've traded down to the upper chain line for the past two weeks.
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      You can see the Chevron at the bottom of the screen indicating a potential top,
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      and we still have four blue dots there, and so we are still in an uptrend.
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      That has not broken.
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      Things would change this coming Friday if the Dow Diamonds were to close below $379.
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      01. Now, the Chevron at the bottom of the
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      screen will fade away if the market wants to continue to move higher from here.
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      It's important to remember that just
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      because you get a Chevron, That does not mean it has been confirmed.
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      It will fade away if it is not confirmed over the next couple of weeks.
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      Now, the Dow is a little weaker than the other major indices, and the reason for
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      that, of course, is Boeing, which is the biggest loser in the Dow in 2024.
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      It is trading slightly lower in the
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      pre-market this morning, still holding the 180 level.
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      You can see that if we start taking out the lows from late 2023, that we may have
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      to go back to the lows of late 2022 to find major support.
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      Looking at the SPY, again, we've got that
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      early warning signal up there at the top of the screen.
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      It was actually an inside week for the S&P 500.
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      Yes, we have a Chevron at the bottom of the screen.
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      We're still showing four blue dots, so nothing to worry about so far.
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      The Nasdaq, a little more to worry about.
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      It was down over 1% on the week and
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      actually closed below the previous week's low.
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      Now, it is certainly trading higher in the pre-market this morning, so there's no
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      enthusiasm to run out of the Nasdaq coming into Monday's trading action.
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      We would need to close this coming Friday below $419.
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      01.
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      And from what we're seeing so far, I'm not expecting that to happen this week.
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      Now, we did talk about the SOX index and the 5,000 level.
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      And of course, anytime you're coming up to
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      big round numbers, you have to anticipate that there could be potential resistance.
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      We saw that in the S&P 500, which is
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      traded above 5,000 and is still holding that level.
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      The SOX index, on the other hand, traded
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      through the 5,000 level on the previous week and did not hold it.
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      So we did not close above 5,000, and now we're coming back down.
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      We do not have an early warning signal,
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      and The reason for that is we actually didn't close up there.
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      We certainly thrusted higher, but did not close up at the top of the range there.
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      So we don't have an early warning signal so far.
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      We did close down below the previous week's low.
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      That, This, of course, is bearish,
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      but we're still showing four blue dots at the bottom.
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      And of course, we do have the Chevron indicating a potential top here.
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      So still waiting for more action to the downside.
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      Nvidia is still holding up very well.
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      It actually closed higher on the week last week, up $3.
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      09 for the week, having an inside week or a week of indecision for NVIDIA.
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      And certainly, I'd be more concerned if NVIDIA closed below the previous week's
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      low, and we'll just have to see how this week turns out.
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      Now, so far in 2024, what's not working in the US market is the Regional Banks.
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      They're down on the year.
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      People are noting the fact that, hey, we put in a higher low and a higher high.
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      Their overall long term trend could be higher.
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      We're on a weekly sell signal right now, but a lot of traders and investors are
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      watching that to see if that continues to develop over time.
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      And certainly the next thing that we need
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      to see happen is to take out the high from late 2023.
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      Now, looking at the Canadian market and
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      starting off with the iShares for the TSX-60, we're still projecting higher
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      prices here, and you can see that we're heading to the highs from 2022.
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      Looking at the I shares for the TSX-60, we
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      made a new closing high for this move last week.
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      Certainly no Chevron, no red dots down here.
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      Everything is still looking very bullish.
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      That, of course, is on the back of the
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      energy sector continuing to move higher here.
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      Now, we are still stuck at the previous highs.
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      We did not break away from the 17.
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      19 level, and I'm looking at the iShares for the energy sector, the XEGs.
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      Our next mathematical target is 18.
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      75, which we got to back in 2022.
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      If we can start making our way out above the late '22 and late 2023 highs, then 18.
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      75 certainly comes into play.
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      Looking at the weekly rightside chart,
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      this This trend only started four weeks ago.
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      There was the weekly buy signal, and we've
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      moved up since then back to the previous highs.
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      Then what else is working in 2024?
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      Well, it's the tech sector and looking at the XIT ETF.
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      We've been on a run.
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      We are still projecting higher prices
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      here, but we've been stuck at resistance at 56.
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      25. If we can take that out, then 62.
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      50 would be our next target to the upside.
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      It was an inside week, very quiet week for tech stocks.
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      Last week, we're looking for a close this coming Friday below $52.
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      83.
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      Now, you've often heard me say that Shopify is the big elephant in the room.
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      And when you look at the market cap of the
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      major Canadian tech stocks, you can see just how big Shopify is.
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      Of course, Blackberry is a household name,
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      but Shopify is actually 66 times bigger than Blackberry.
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      So if Blackberry were to double in price,
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      if it were to go from the $4 area to the $8 area, that would be 100 % gain.
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      But when it comes to market cap, that would barely show up as a major change.
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      And so we're We're not expecting stock
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      like BlackBerry to really shift the direction of the market.
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      The index itself, the XIT ETF, will continue to look very similar to Shopify.
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      Shopify is the big like an elephant in the
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      room, and the way that it moves is the way that the index and the sector moves.
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      Right now, we're looking at a stock that
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      has been treading water for the last month.
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      We have three red dots down here.
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      We've had those for the last two weeks.
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      We had a Chevron develope about a month ago, and we're still holding the trend.
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      It hasn't broken down.
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      We're looking for a close this coming Friday below $100.
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      95 to give us a new weekly sell signal for Shopify.
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      Now, what's been really working in 2024 is
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      Celestica, which made a new high on the previous week.
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      And last week, we actually moved down and closed below the previous week's low.
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      So there's certainly a potential for a top for Celestica at this time.
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      Now, Bitcoin and Ethereum were in the news last week for making new highs.
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      Both of them pulled back and closed lower on the week.
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      So we'll have to see if that trend to the downside continues this week.
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      Then looking at the bond market, things are fairly quiet.
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      The TLT, the XBB, both treading water here, going into the Fed meeting.
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      It's still our risk on world, and that's good for the stock market that investors
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      are willing to buy bonds in the emerging markets and junk bonds.
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      You can see when the junk bonds bottomed
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      last fall with the stock market and then headed up with the stock market.
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      We'll keep an eye on the emerging market
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      and junk bonds to see if they continue on their weekly trend.
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      Then finishing off looking at the world of commodities.
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      Copper was up sharply last week, nearly 6% on the week.
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      That helped a lot of mining stocks.
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      We saw a pullback in gold after making a
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      new high the previous week, so a fairly quiet trading for gold last week.
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      Silver, on the other hand, continued to move higher, up over 3% on the week.
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      Then looking at the elephant in the room, which is crude oil.
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      Crude oil traded up to 81.
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      25 and has stopped.
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      We're looking to see if We can get over
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      that level, and our next target would be 87.
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      50.
    • 00:09:34
      And unfortunately, no joy for natural gas, down nearly 7% on the week.
    • 00:09:39
      Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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      As you can see from the weekly charts, we've got No major trend changes to be
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      concerned about coming into Monday's trading action.
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      And of course, that could change.
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      The market could be on pause coming into a
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      Fed meeting, waiting to see what the Fed does, what they say.
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      Of Of course, we'll find that out on Wednesday afternoon.
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      And this coming Friday could look a lot different than last Friday.
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      Now, at the end of every presentation, I try to nudge you to become a blood donor.
    • 00:10:12
      If you're currently a blood donor, thank you very much.
    • 00:10:15
      The world appreciates you.
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      When you're donating blood, it's your
    • 00:10:19
      chance to act as a superhero and help save somebody else's life.
    • 00:10:23
      If you're not familiar, we do have a blood donor's reward program, so go to the
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      website, check it out, and you may qualify for a discount on our site.
    • 00:10:33
      In certain cases, you could get a free
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      lifetime membership to TheUpTrend, so go check that out.
    • 00:10:40
      Enjoy the rest of your day, folks.
    • 00:10:42
      Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll
    • 00:10:45
      take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

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