Monday Morning Market Outlook 03182024

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com. In the pre-market this morning, stock

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index futures are trading above fair value, being led higher by the Nasdaq.

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While commodities are mixed, crude oil is

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higher, while gold is slightly lower on Monday morning.

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Now, between now and when the market

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opens, there's no economic numbers coming out to throw the market off.

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Now, in today's presentation, we're going

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to be focused on weekly charts, so this is a longer term look at the market.

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Of course, we posted daily charts on the weekend.

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If you're a subscriber, of course, you've

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been in and looked at your daily charts in this presentation.

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We're going to be catching up on all the weekly charts.

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Starting off with the VIX, the The VIX

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traded above the upper channel line last week but did not close above it.

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We're going to remain long term bullish on

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the market as long as the VIX does not close above 15.

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35 this coming Friday.

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Now, we do have a Fed meeting this week,

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and so the It may want to pause a bit before.

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Some of the charts certainly look like the market paused last week ahead of this Fed

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meeting, so we'll just have to wait and see.

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Of course, the meeting starts on Tuesday,

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ends on Wednesday, and Wednesday afternoon is when all the fun starts.

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Now, starting off looking at the Dow Diamonds.

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We've got an early warning signal up there

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at the top of the screen, and we've been stuck at resistance for the

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last month, and we've traded down to the upper chain line for the past two weeks.

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You can see the Chevron at the bottom of the screen indicating a potential top,

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and we still have four blue dots there, and so we are still in an uptrend.

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That has not broken.

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Things would change this coming Friday if the Dow Diamonds were to close below $379.

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01. Now, the Chevron at the bottom of the

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screen will fade away if the market wants to continue to move higher from here.

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It's important to remember that just

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because you get a Chevron, That does not mean it has been confirmed.

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It will fade away if it is not confirmed over the next couple of weeks.

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Now, the Dow is a little weaker than the other major indices, and the reason for

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that, of course, is Boeing, which is the biggest loser in the Dow in 2024.

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It is trading slightly lower in the

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pre-market this morning, still holding the 180 level.

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You can see that if we start taking out the lows from late 2023, that we may have

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to go back to the lows of late 2022 to find major support.

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Looking at the SPY, again, we've got that

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early warning signal up there at the top of the screen.

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It was actually an inside week for the S&P 500.

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Yes, we have a Chevron at the bottom of the screen.

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We're still showing four blue dots, so nothing to worry about so far.

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The Nasdaq, a little more to worry about.

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It was down over 1% on the week and

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actually closed below the previous week's low.

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Now, it is certainly trading higher in the pre-market this morning, so there's no

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enthusiasm to run out of the Nasdaq coming into Monday's trading action.

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We would need to close this coming Friday below $419.

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01.

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And from what we're seeing so far, I'm not expecting that to happen this week.

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Now, we did talk about the SOX index and the 5,000 level.

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And of course, anytime you're coming up to

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big round numbers, you have to anticipate that there could be potential resistance.

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We saw that in the S&P 500, which is

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traded above 5,000 and is still holding that level.

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The SOX index, on the other hand, traded

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through the 5,000 level on the previous week and did not hold it.

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So we did not close above 5,000, and now we're coming back down.

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We do not have an early warning signal,

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and The reason for that is we actually didn't close up there.

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We certainly thrusted higher, but did not close up at the top of the range there.

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So we don't have an early warning signal so far.

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We did close down below the previous week's low.

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That, This, of course, is bearish,

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but we're still showing four blue dots at the bottom.

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And of course, we do have the Chevron indicating a potential top here.

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So still waiting for more action to the downside.

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Nvidia is still holding up very well.

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It actually closed higher on the week last week, up $3.

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09 for the week, having an inside week or a week of indecision for NVIDIA.

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And certainly, I'd be more concerned if NVIDIA closed below the previous week's

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low, and we'll just have to see how this week turns out.

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Now, so far in 2024, what's not working in the US market is the Regional Banks.

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They're down on the year.

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People are noting the fact that, hey, we put in a higher low and a higher high.

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Their overall long term trend could be higher.

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We're on a weekly sell signal right now, but a lot of traders and investors are

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watching that to see if that continues to develop over time.

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And certainly the next thing that we need

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to see happen is to take out the high from late 2023.

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Now, looking at the Canadian market and

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starting off with the iShares for the TSX-60, we're still projecting higher

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prices here, and you can see that we're heading to the highs from 2022.

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Looking at the I shares for the TSX-60, we

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made a new closing high for this move last week.

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Certainly no Chevron, no red dots down here.

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Everything is still looking very bullish.

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That, of course, is on the back of the

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energy sector continuing to move higher here.

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Now, we are still stuck at the previous highs.

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We did not break away from the 17.

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19 level, and I'm looking at the iShares for the energy sector, the XEGs.

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Our next mathematical target is 18.

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75, which we got to back in 2022.

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If we can start making our way out above the late '22 and late 2023 highs, then 18.

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75 certainly comes into play.

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Looking at the weekly rightside chart,

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this This trend only started four weeks ago.

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There was the weekly buy signal, and we've

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moved up since then back to the previous highs.

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Then what else is working in 2024?

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Well, it's the tech sector and looking at the XIT ETF.

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We've been on a run.

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We are still projecting higher prices

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here, but we've been stuck at resistance at 56.

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25. If we can take that out, then 62.

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50 would be our next target to the upside.

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It was an inside week, very quiet week for tech stocks.

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Last week, we're looking for a close this coming Friday below $52.

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83.

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Now, you've often heard me say that Shopify is the big elephant in the room.

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And when you look at the market cap of the

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major Canadian tech stocks, you can see just how big Shopify is.

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Of course, Blackberry is a household name,

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but Shopify is actually 66 times bigger than Blackberry.

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So if Blackberry were to double in price,

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if it were to go from the $4 area to the $8 area, that would be 100 % gain.

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But when it comes to market cap, that would barely show up as a major change.

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And so we're We're not expecting stock

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like BlackBerry to really shift the direction of the market.

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The index itself, the XIT ETF, will continue to look very similar to Shopify.

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Shopify is the big like an elephant in the

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room, and the way that it moves is the way that the index and the sector moves.

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Right now, we're looking at a stock that

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has been treading water for the last month.

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We have three red dots down here.

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We've had those for the last two weeks.

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We had a Chevron develope about a month ago, and we're still holding the trend.

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It hasn't broken down.

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We're looking for a close this coming Friday below $100.

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95 to give us a new weekly sell signal for Shopify.

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Now, what's been really working in 2024 is

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Celestica, which made a new high on the previous week.

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And last week, we actually moved down and closed below the previous week's low.

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So there's certainly a potential for a top for Celestica at this time.

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Now, Bitcoin and Ethereum were in the news last week for making new highs.

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Both of them pulled back and closed lower on the week.

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So we'll have to see if that trend to the downside continues this week.

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Then looking at the bond market, things are fairly quiet.

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The TLT, the XBB, both treading water here, going into the Fed meeting.

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It's still our risk on world, and that's good for the stock market that investors

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are willing to buy bonds in the emerging markets and junk bonds.

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You can see when the junk bonds bottomed

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last fall with the stock market and then headed up with the stock market.

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We'll keep an eye on the emerging market

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and junk bonds to see if they continue on their weekly trend.

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Then finishing off looking at the world of commodities.

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Copper was up sharply last week, nearly 6% on the week.

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That helped a lot of mining stocks.

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We saw a pullback in gold after making a

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new high the previous week, so a fairly quiet trading for gold last week.

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Silver, on the other hand, continued to move higher, up over 3% on the week.

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Then looking at the elephant in the room, which is crude oil.

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Crude oil traded up to 81.

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25 and has stopped.

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We're looking to see if We can get over

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that level, and our next target would be 87.

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50.

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And unfortunately, no joy for natural gas, down nearly 7% on the week.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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As you can see from the weekly charts, we've got No major trend changes to be

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concerned about coming into Monday's trading action.

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And of course, that could change.

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The market could be on pause coming into a

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Fed meeting, waiting to see what the Fed does, what they say.

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Of Of course, we'll find that out on Wednesday afternoon.

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And this coming Friday could look a lot different than last Friday.

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Now, at the end of every presentation, I try to nudge you to become a blood donor.

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The world appreciates you.

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If you're not familiar, we do have a blood donor's reward program, so go to the

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In certain cases, you could get a free

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lifetime membership to TheUpTrend, so go check that out.

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Enjoy the rest of your day, folks.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning, and at that time, we'll

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take a closer look at the Canadian stock market.

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