Stock Market Timing 09272023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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com. In the premarket this morning, things are
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fairly quiet, stock index futures are slightly above fair value, crude oil is
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higher while gold is down another $7 in the premarket.
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We've got a durable good orders coming out at 8:30 this morning.
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Then we've got energy inventories coming out later in the morning.
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Let's start off with a little apology.
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I've been off for the last couple of days.
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I've had to take some unscheduled time off.
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I recently had the Shingles vaccine and it did not agree with me at all.
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It's put me on my back for a couple of days now.
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Here we are back at work on Wednesday morning.
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Now looking at the VIX, unlike the stock market, which is making lower highs and
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lower lows, the VIX is starting to make higher highs.
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If we just go back across, we go back into the start of July, we made
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a high, then a higher high, higher high, and another higher high.
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Of course, that is bearish for the stock market.
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We're trying to break away from the 18.75 level.
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Our next mathematical target is 20.31.
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If we were to break away from 18.75, we'd
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also break away from the 200-day moving average.
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If we continue to move up, that, of
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course, would be bearish for the stock market.
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Now, the US dollar index isn't helping the stock market that much at the moment.
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It made a new high yesterday, and it's
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gaining strength against not only the Euro, but a lot of other major currencies
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around the world, including the British pound and the Japanese Yen.
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Looking at the bond market, the bonds continue to move lower on Tuesday.
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Bond yields continue to move higher on Tuesday.
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That, of course, is not good for the stock market.
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Looking at crude oil, we're coming off a
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new early warning signal up at the top of the panic zones here.
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We're trying to break down below 87.50. That hasn't happened yet.
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We've traded below it, but we haven't closed below it.
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We're trying to break out above 93.65. If
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we can do that, then 83.75 would be our next target to the upside.
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We're trading higher in the premarket this morning, so there's certainly a
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possibility of making a higher high on Wednesday.
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Now looking down on crude oil, if we want
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to see a sell signal here, we need to close below 87.16 on Wednesday.
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That would give us a new Sell signal for crude oil.
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And if that were to happen, that, of course, would join natural gas already on
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a Sell signal starting to break down below $2.93. Our next mathematical target would
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take us back down to the lows from early June down at
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2.73. And if we want to buy signal and natural gas, we need to close on Wednesday
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above $2.99. Looking at the metals, Copper made a new closing low yesterday.
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We've got a new closing low for this move for gold.
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It's taken up the earlier September low,
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and now we're looking to see if we can find support at the August low.
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Silver holding up a lot better than gold
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at the moment, but it is back on a sell signal as of Tuesday's close.
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Now, month end is just ahead of us, and of
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course, that has a bullish bias for the stock market.
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But in a down market, that doesn't
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guarantee that we're going to close higher.
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It can often just help take off some of
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the downward pressure that we're seeing during a down market.
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Now, looking at the DOW itself, it has broken down below the August lows, so has
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the S&P 500 heading towards our next target of 421.88 on the SPY.
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Then looking at the QQQ's, they're
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starting to break down below the August lows.
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Our next mathematical target is 351.56.
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Now, the semiconductors held up fairly well yesterday.
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They were down nearly 2 % but didn't take out the recent low.
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They've certainly taken out the August lows but there's a lot of sectors that
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have also done that and are looking fairly weak.
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Even the Russell 2000 or the MicroCaps, they broke down quite a while ago.
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Then when we look at consumer staples or retail or real estate or transports,
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they've all broken down below the August lows.
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Much of the market is slipping away at the moment.
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Can we get a bounce here going into month end?
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Well, if we do get a bounce, it probably
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won't be enough to give us any new daily buy signals.
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Now moving over to the Canadian market, wasn't that long ago we were looking to
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see if we were going to take out the summer highs, but that quickly reversed.
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Now we've taken out the summer lows
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for the TSX, the TSX-60 for mid caps, small caps and micro caps.
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The August lows are no longer in play.
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Then looking at some of the sectors, energy is still holding up fairly well.
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It traded up into the channel.
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I saw some energy buy signals for
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individual stocks yesterday, financials heading down with the US market.
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We're also seeing a weakness in the gold sector, of course, and global mining or
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the base metals all were down yesterday making new lows.
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We also saw a new low for industrials
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and a new low for this move for the infotech sector.
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You can see we're just coming right down to the August lows.
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We'll have to see if we can find some support there.
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Then trading right through the August lows
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is the real estate sector and telecoms also have traded through the August Lowe.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Just a quick reminder and a prod.
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If you're short the market right now or you're along the bear ETFs,
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please make sure you take some money off the table and lock in some profits.
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We don't know when exactly the market is
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going to turn around or what the catalyst is going to be.
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I have absolutely no guarantee.
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There's no crystal ball that tells us that
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the market is going to head sharply lower from here.
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You don't need to liquidate a position.
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There's no reason to abandon a short
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positionposition or to abandon a long, bare ETF position.
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But it is important to systematically take money off the table as we go.
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That's all I wanted to say this morning.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice, we'll hopefully be on Thursday morning.

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