Morning Market Outlook 11172023

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Good morning, everyone.

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Welcome to Friday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from T heUpTrend.com In the premarket this

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morning, stock index futures and commodities are above fair value.

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So far, we're looking for some buying at the open on Friday morning.

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We do have a US housing numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning.

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I don't think they'll have much effect on

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the market, but we'll just have to wait and see.

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Looking at the VIX, the VIX made a new low

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yesterday before closing slightly higher on the day.

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That would be a bullish reversal day.

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We're looking for a close on Friday above 15.74, not expecting that to happen.

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There's the VIX for the Nasdaq closing slightly lower yesterday,

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and the VIX for the Russell, certainly not trending to the downside still on a sell

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signal that's supportive for higher stock prices.

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We know that the Russell has been trailing

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small mid-cap, micro-cap stocks have all been trailing.

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Not a lot of excitement in the Russell so far.

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Compare that to the Nasdaq.

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And of course, if we take those big cap,

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magnificent seven stocks out of the Nasdaq, it looks more like this.

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And then, of course, if we leave the big cap stocks and look at the smaller cap

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Nasdaq stocks, you can see it looks like this.

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And we talked about the Nasdaq Next

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Generation stocks hitting, running up to 25 and reversing yesterday.

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And it pulled back again on Thursday.

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So a potential for a short term top, we'll just have to wait and see.

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We're not seeing that type of action in the premarket this morning.

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I'm looking at the I-share for the TSX 60,

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just up two cents yesterday, and it was a real mixed picture.

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But the Canadian market is acting very

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similar to the US market right now, where we're being led higher by big cap stocks,

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mid-cap, small caps and micro caps are trailing at the moment and it would be

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nice to see those micro cap stocks start to pick up.

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Now, gold moved up yesterday.

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It's back on a daily buy signal, joining silver already on a daily buy signal.

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Best performing stocks on the TSX on Thursday, Wheaton followed by Kinros.

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What didn't work? Well, energy continued to move lower.

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We've got crude oil up in the premarket this morning.

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It was down $3.70 yesterday.

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It's up a dollar in the premarket.

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We also are trying to hold 71.88. If that breaks, then 68.

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75 would be our next target.

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Not expecting to head down to those levels on Friday.

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Natural gas made a new low for this move.

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We're looking for support at 3.13 and hopefully that will hold.

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Suncor is back on a sell signal and this is a really bearish chart.

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We had a high, lower high, lower high, and now we've put in another lower high.

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That's extremely bearish.

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It may turn out that Suncor will start to

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look more like Cenovus or a Tourmaline over the next couple of weeks.

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Then looking at what's working this morning, well, the GAP is in the news this

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morning and it's popping higher in the premarket.

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So if you had an order in 15.63, you don't have to worry about it.

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It'll get filled at the opening price.

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And then we may take a run up to 17.19.

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Let's finish off this morning's presentation with a little trade school.

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And let's talk about Walmart because if you bought here, this looks like a losing

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trade, but that's not the way it's supposed to work.

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If we go back in time to October 13th,

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that's when Walmart generated the latest buy signal.

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And of course, at that time, we're coming off the bottom of the Panic Zones.

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We had some panic selling.

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We had a Pressure Zone form.

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This is the time and place you look for a low risk buying opportunity.

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Low risk does not mean guaranteed.

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Nothing's guaranteed.

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Every time that we're down the bottom of the panic zones and we get a Pressure

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Zone, you can look for a low risk buying opportunity and we're going to run it up

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until we see an early warning signal at the top of the screen.

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Now back on October 13th, our price target chart looked like this.

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So once you got an order filled, you've

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got confirmation that those shares are in your account.

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Let's say for the sake of argument, you bought 100 shares of Walmart.

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I would want to go back into the account

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right away and place an order to sell 50 % of those shares at 162.50,

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then put another order in to sell 50 % of the remainder, so 25 shares at 165.63. Now

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you don't have to put the orders in at these exact numbers.

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You can put it in a little lower.

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And so 165.

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49 or 169.55, something like that would probably be a good order to put in.

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Remember, these price targets are also potential areas of resistance.

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Then next, I would put an order in to sell half of the remainder.

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If you've got 25 shares left at that

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point, remember, none of these orders have been filled.

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You're just planning ahead.

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We're going to sell 12 shares at 168.

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75 or 168.

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69 would be good.

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Then up here at the top, we've got 13 shares left.

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We want to sell half at 171.88. We've got 13 shares left.

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We're going to sell six at 171.88.

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We never want to completely liquidate a position.

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You don't know how far a stock can run.

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If it can continue to run higher, you want to take advantage of that.

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But what happened? Well, the stock fell out of the sky, and

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we are used to stocks falling faster than they rise.

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That has just always been the case.

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We need to sell on the first close below the lower channel line, and that is

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certainly the first close below the lower channel line since October.

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You can see that we hit our first target

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at 162.50, we hit the second target at 165.63. We hit the third target at

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168.75, but we did not get up to the fourth target.

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What have you got left?

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You've got 13 % of your original position.

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You've got 13 shares left in your account

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and you need to take the loss on those 13 shares.

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For those 13 shares, it will be a losing trade.

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Now, if you've ever heard me use the term,

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we were waiting to get kicked out of the trade.

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Well, getting kicked out of the trade is

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the first close below the lower channel line.

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And that certainly happened yesterday.

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So if you're a long Walmart, you need to

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liquidate that position this morning at the open.

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And luckily, Walmart is actually trading higher.

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I'm back in the premarket this morning.

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Let's finish off with a customer question.

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If you could only trade five ETS versus five stocks, what would they be?

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Well, if you go into the stocks menu, you'll first of all see my five stocks,

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which I trade as a basket either long or short.

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And then if you go down, you'll see the Canadian 2X pairs and the US 3X pairs.

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I always recommend that people start trading pairs.

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So you're either long the bull or long the bear.

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Or the opposite of that is you can be

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short the bull or short the bear, depending on which way the market's going.

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But I would certainly

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out of all the ETFs, I would want to be trading those for the most part.

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You don't have to worry about which way the market's going, and you don't have to

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worry about anything like what happened to Walmart yesterday because they are ETFs.

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The risk is spread over a whole bunch of stocks.

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If you look at the US ETF volume leaders

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right now, and if you include the leveraged ETFs, you'll see that the the

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most actively traded ETFs are actually the triples for the Nasdaq, and then you've

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got triples for semiconductors and triples for the biotech sector.

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Volume wise, they're very actively traded.

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Of course, I always talk about the fact

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that the SPY and the triple Qs are the big monsters because the SPY is currently

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trading at $450 versus there's a $3, there's an $8 ETF of 40, 16, 26.

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This is the big monster in the room.

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But they're all very actively traded.

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If I had limited resources and I was

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looking to what exactly should I be doing, I would be trading pairs of the major

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leveraged ETFs, the 3X in the US and the 2X in Canada.

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The fact that they are 2X and 3X doesn't make them unstable.

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They pretty well have the same volatility

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as the major technology stocks that we'd love to follow.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Have a great day. Have a great weekend.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Monday morning.

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