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00:00:00Hello, everyone.
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00:00:01It's Stephen White side here from
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00:00:03theuptrend.com with this weekend's edition of Stock Market Timing Television.
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00:00:07Well, there was one big news story this
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00:00:09week, and that was the Saudi's cutting oil production.
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00:00:12You can see on Monday that the price of oil spiked up.
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00:00:16It hit resistance and our next price target.
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00:00:19Congratulations.
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00:00:20If you picked up crude oil recently and
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00:00:23put in an order at 75 or at 78.13, they both got filled on Monday.
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00:00:29Your $75 order would have been filled at
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00:00:32the open, and the 78.13 order would have been filled later in the day.
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00:00:37We've come up to resistance.
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00:00:38We've been treading water for the past couple of days, and a lot of that has to
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00:00:43do with hitting the 200 day moving average.
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00:00:45That's where we topped out previously
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00:00:48several times over the past six months or so.
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00:00:51Here we are, once again, waiting to see if
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00:00:54we can break out above the 200 day moving average.
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00:00:58Now, that move up in crude oil helped the TSX move up on the week, and it was up
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00:01:03just 1.02 % on the week, sitting right on the upper channel line.
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00:01:09So we need to close this coming Friday
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00:01:11three cents higher than we closed on the past Thursday.
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00:01:16Now, while a spike in crude oil prices can be beneficial for the Canadian stock
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00:01:20market, it can also put a lid on the US stock market.
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00:01:24And looking at the S&P 500 ETF, look at how small that bar is
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00:01:29compared to the bars from the previous weeks here.
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00:01:31And you'd have to go back quite a while to find a bar that small.
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00:01:35So very quiet week for the S&P 500, closing down just 20 cents on the week.
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00:01:41So nothing going on there.
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00:01:43We did have an inside week for the Nasdaq 100 and a little more volatility.
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00:01:48It was down just under 1 % on the week, so not a major move there.
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00:01:52There was a major move for the
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00:01:54semiconductors, but all it did was unwind the gains from the previous week.
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00:01:59So we didn't close below the previous week's low.
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00:02:02Maybe we would have if it was a five day week, but it was a four day week.
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00:02:06And so for this particular ETF, we're
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00:02:08looking for a close below 191.19 this coming Friday.
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00:02:12If we look at some daily charts of the major chip companies, you can see Advanced
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00:02:16Micro Devices rolled over on Wednesday and on Thursday, it stayed on a sell signal.
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00:02:23So that's already on a sell signal.
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00:02:25Intel, on the other hand, peaked on Tuesday and had a pullback
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00:02:29on Wednesday and very small pullback on Thursday, just down two cents on the day.
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00:02:35So it's still holding its gains.
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00:02:36It's one of the best performing stocks and
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00:02:38it's certainly not a stock I've ever recommended.
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00:02:41But over the past couple of months, it's
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00:02:43outperformed just about every other semiconductor.
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00:02:45And so it's having its time in the sun.
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00:02:48On Monday, we're looking for a close below
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00:02:50$30.93. Not expecting that to happen on Monday.
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00:02:54We may see a sell signal for NVIDIA with a
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00:02:56close below 265.62. And then looking at Marvell, third
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00:03:01day of a sell signal there, making a new low for this move on Thursday.
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00:03:06And then Taiwan Semiconnectors, inside day on Friday.
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00:03:10So we're on a sell signal here.
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00:03:12Notice the high that we made in March is a lower high than we had in February.
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00:03:16So that could turn out to be a very bearish sign going forward.
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00:03:22Looking at the VIX on the week, the VIX
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00:03:24continued to move lower, down 1.6 % on the week.
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00:03:27This coming Friday, we're going to need to
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00:03:29see a close above $24.72 to tell us that the mood in the option pits has changed.
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00:03:36Now, if you're trading on Monday, we'll be
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00:03:38looking for a close above $21.14. If that doesn't happen on Monday,
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00:03:44of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:03:48Now, the big story this week is going to be bank earnings.
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00:03:51They're starting to come out this week,
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00:03:53and of course, banks are still in the doghouse.
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00:03:56The SPY Bank ETF was down 2.32 %, so still holding above the low from a
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00:04:04couple of weeks ago, but there's nothing going on there.
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00:04:08Looking at Canadian banks, they perform better.
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00:04:11They traded up to the upper channel line,
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00:04:13so they did not see as big a sell off as US banks did.
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00:04:17But they're still in the doghouse and down a little over a third of a % on the week.
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00:04:23Now, one bank you need to keep an eye on is the TD Bank.
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00:04:26It's still on a weekly sell signal, ended the week down just under half a %.
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00:04:31You may have seen these headlines that TD
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00:04:33Bank is now the world's most shorted vendor.
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00:04:36And of course, this is because of their exposure in the US.
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00:04:39And short bets against TD Bank are now worth a whopping $3.7 billion.
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00:04:46So there's a lot of institutional money
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00:04:48out there betting that TD Bank has probably shown up at the wrong time at the
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00:04:54wrong place trying to invest more money into the US banking sector.
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00:04:59What worked over the past four trading days?
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00:05:01Well, it was gold stocks.
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00:05:03And so there's the GDX trading up towards the top of the panic zones.
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00:05:07There's an open gap just above us that could get hit this week.
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00:05:10And that might be a catalyst for a top in the GDX.
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00:05:15We ran up to our next price target.
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00:05:17We're looking at the weekly chart here in
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00:05:2034.38. We hit that closed at 34.43 on Friday.
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00:05:25So right at our next price target.
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00:05:28Congratulations.
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00:05:29If you are long GDX and you had an order
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00:05:32in to get filled at 34.38, it got filled this week.
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00:05:36Then looking at the weekly right side
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00:05:38chart, you can see that we've had a couple of very strong weeks, four in a row.
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00:05:43And so we're certainly well above the upper channel line.
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00:05:46And the first sign something new is going
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00:05:48to happen is a close below the previous week's low.
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00:05:51And that's certainly not anything we're contemplating here.
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00:05:54Now looking at a daily chart of the GDX, you can see we made a new high on
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00:05:58Wednesday and we continue to close higher on Thursday.
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00:06:02So that's still looking very bullish.
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00:06:04On Monday, we're looking for a close below 31.99. Not expecting that to happen.
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00:06:08And of course, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:06:13Looking north of the border at the XGD,
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00:06:15you can see we're moving up towards the top of the panic zones.
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00:06:19We hit our price target of $20.31. And next target above that is $21.88. And
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00:06:26you can see the weekly right side charts looking very strong.
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00:06:29We've taken out the high from a couple of months ago.
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00:06:32Now, looking at a daily chart of our price targets, it's also at 20.
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00:06:3631. Notice that we ran up and then on
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00:06:40Wednesday and Thursday, we traded above it, but we're still stuck to it.
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00:06:44So we haven't broken away just yet.
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00:06:46If we can break away, then 21.88 would be our next price target.
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00:06:51And looking down on Monday, we need a
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00:06:53close below 19.19. Not expecting that to happen on Monday.
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00:06:57And of course, if it doesn't happen on
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00:06:59Monday, that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:07:04What didn't work this week?
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00:07:05Well, if you're watching the videos during the week, we were talking about some of
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00:07:08the major resistance out there that the market had got stuck at.
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00:07:11And one of the areas we were looking at were the Transports.
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00:07:15And so for the week, they moved down on the week.
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00:07:18You can see that it was actually an inside week.
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00:07:20So nothing new to tell.
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00:07:22It was a pause week, a week of indecision.
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00:07:25Now we're looking for a breakout or a breakdown of the previous week's range.
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00:07:29That's what we're looking for this week.
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00:07:31Fedex is still holding this sector up.
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00:07:33It made a new high this week.
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00:07:35It's had quite a nice run over the past couple of months.
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00:07:39UPS is still on a weekly buy signal.
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00:07:41It pulled back 2.79 % on the week.
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00:07:45Certainly not tracking and moving with the same speed that FedEx is, but it's still
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00:07:49on a weekly buy signal, so no change there.
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00:07:52But looking at some of the other stocks in
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00:07:54the transportation index, you've got American Airlines was down on the week.
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00:07:59It was down over 5 % on the week, having an inside week.
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00:08:04Again, a week of indecision.
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00:08:06Nice big drop for CH Robinson.
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00:08:09It was down 6.7 % on the week.
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00:08:12Inside week for Delta Airlines, down on the week.
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00:08:16Then we've got Matson making a new low for this move.
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00:08:19Then we've got Norfolk Southern having an inside week.
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00:08:23Then we've got an inside week for United Airlines.
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00:08:27None of these charts look very bullish.
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00:08:30We're looking to see if the transports are going to take out the
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00:08:35high or the low from the previous week's range.
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00:08:37That's the next thing we're looking for.
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00:08:40If we do break down, that's probably going
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00:08:42to be a very bearish sign for the overall stock market.
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00:08:47Now, looking at the Canadian
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00:08:48transportation sector, obviously, much smaller selection of companies, and these
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00:08:53are all local as opposed to a lot of the US companies are global.
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00:08:57We've got a Cargo Jet making a new closing low for this move.
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00:09:01We've got Air Canada closing lower on the
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00:09:04week, nearly 3 % having an inside week, so still on a weekly sell signal.
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00:09:10Then both the major railroads, Canadian
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00:09:12National and Canadian Pacific, are still on a weekly sell signals.
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00:09:16Obviously, both of those companies are holding up fairly well, but they are still
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00:09:20on a weekly sell signals, so no change there.
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00:09:24Okay, folks, that is all for this weekend's presentation.
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00:09:28Thank you very much for your time and attention.
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00:09:30Hope you're having a wonderful weekend.
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00:09:33And for this week, we'll just be watching the bank stocks.
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00:09:37That's going to be the major catalyst for big moves in the stock market this week.
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00:09:42Thank you very much for your time and attention.
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00:09:44And the next time you come you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning. you..