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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone. Welcome to Tuesday morning.
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00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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00:00:06On Tuesday morning, things are fairly quiet.
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00:00:08Stock index futures are a little below
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00:00:10fair value, but certainly not moving too far away from unchanged.
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00:00:15So we are looking for quiet open on Tuesday morning.
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00:00:20Well, yesterday wasn't that quiet.
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00:00:22We tried to move the web servers and they got totally screwed up.
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00:00:25I don't know all the details of why we
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00:00:29couldn't get things to work, something to do with the secure socket layer.
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00:00:33But we're going to have a meeting today
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00:00:35from 9 to 10 to try to figure out what to do next.
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00:00:39And if they've got a simple solution, I'm willing to hear it.
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00:00:43And if they can move things over between 9 and 10, I'm going to let them do it.
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00:00:48I want to get this over with as quickly as possible so we can move forward.
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00:00:53Now, this week we've got some inflation numbers coming out, we've got some retail
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00:00:56sales numbers coming out, and we've got bank earnings starting on Friday.
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00:01:01So the market might be a little quiet before those numbers start to come out.
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00:01:06Now, one area of the market that's
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00:01:08recovered quite a bit in 2023 has been the cryptocurrencies.
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00:01:12Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are hitting new highs in the premarket on Tuesday morning.
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00:01:18Now, gold pulled back into the channel yesterday.
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00:01:21It's up a little in the premarket this morning.
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00:01:23We need a close on Tuesday below $19.85. 70 to give us a sell signal.
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00:01:28And crude oil pulled back yesterday.
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00:01:29It's pulling back a bit more in the premarket this morning.
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00:01:33We need a close below $70.03 on Tuesday.
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00:01:37Not expecting that to happen.
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00:01:39And that lower channel line is going to continue to move higher daily.
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00:01:43We hit the 78.13 level last week and have not gone back to retest it.
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00:01:49If we can break out above that, of course,
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00:01:51we have the highs from January, but then 81.25 would be our next target.
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00:01:57Looking at the VIX.
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00:01:58Vix traded up into the channel yesterday.
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00:01:59Again, did not close in the channel, still closing below the lower channel line.
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00:02:04We're looking for a close on Tuesday above $20.89. Of course, if that doesn't happen,
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00:02:11that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:02:14Today, I thought we'd take a look at the Canadian leveraged ETFs, and then tomorrow
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00:02:18we'll come back and look at the US leveraged ETFs.
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00:02:21I trade these as pairs, so I'm either long
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00:02:25the bull or along the bear, depending on which way the market is going.
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00:02:31Of course, you can find these pairs that we're talking about this morning.
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00:02:35You can go under stacks and you see the
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00:02:38CA2X pairs, and tomorrow we'll come back and look at the US 3X pairs.
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00:02:42Looking at the TSX 60, you can see we're still on a buy signal here.
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00:02:48I don't get overly concerned about worrying about a sell signal unless we're
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00:02:53trading down at the upper channel line or in the channel.
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00:02:58So I'm not going to read out the lower channel line numbers.
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00:03:01There's no need for it.
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00:03:02We hit 18.75, got to lock in some profits there.
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00:03:05In fact, we opened up above it.
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00:03:07So even if you had an order in at 18.75, it got filled a little higher than that.
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00:03:12We're trying to get to
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00:03:1419.53. If we can't do that and start coming back down, of course, we'll be
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00:03:19looking for the bear ETF to start going back up.
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00:03:22On Tuesday, we're looking for a close above $7.06. Not expecting that to happen.
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00:03:27And of course, that upper channel line is going to continue to move lower daily.
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00:03:32Now, there's a little more concern in the US market.
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00:03:34You can see the S&P 500 ETF has hit the
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00:03:39upper channel line and bounced for the past two trading days.
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00:03:42A close below $13.72 would give us a sell signal on Tuesday.
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00:03:48We're trying to get to 14.84. That is certainly a realistic target and that only
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00:03:53would come into play if we could start closing above last week's high.
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00:03:58You can see we're still stuck to $14.06. Then, of course, the Bayer ETF, we need to
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00:04:03close above $30.03 on Tuesday to give us a buy signal.
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00:04:08Now, it's important to note that just because you get a sell signal in one does
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00:04:12not automatically guarantee a buy signal in the other.
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00:04:17So sometimes you have to wait a couple of days.
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00:04:19Sometimes that other signal won't come.
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00:04:22You get a sell signal in the bull ETF, a couple of days later you get another buy
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00:04:27signal in the bull ETF, and there was never a buy signal in the bear ETF.
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00:04:32So that can happen sometimes.
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00:04:34There's no guarantee the ETFs are not connected.
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00:04:38The only way they are connected is if the
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00:04:41same people are buying and selling each of them, but they have no direct connection.
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00:04:47Now looking at the Nasdaq, you can see we should have a bit more concern here as the
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00:04:52Nasdaq has traded in the channel for the past couple of days.
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00:04:55And we had an inside day yesterday.
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00:04:57We closed down slightly on the day.
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00:05:00On Tuesday, we're looking for a close
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00:05:02below 10.59. Now, we've had lots of opportunities to take money off the table.
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00:05:07So you're sitting with a partial position waiting to get kicked out.
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00:05:11And of course,
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00:05:12you have the option of getting kicked out of the bull and going into the bear.
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00:05:16Bear also had an inside day yesterday.
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00:05:18So looking for a close on Tuesday above $26.71.
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00:05:24Now looking at the Canadian sectors, the energy bull is still on a buy signal here.
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00:05:29We're trying to get to 25.
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00:05:31So far, we haven't been able to do that.
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00:05:33You can see the open gap was filled, and
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00:05:36now we're trying to figure out which way we're going next.
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00:05:39Looking at the bear ETF, you can see there's still some white space between
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00:05:43where we are right now and the lower channel line.
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00:05:45So not concerned about a signal on Tuesday.
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00:05:49And then looking at financials, now we have the financials in the database.
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00:05:54They are very thinly traded.
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00:05:55So just be concerned about that.
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00:05:57The bull ETF is on a buy signal right now that would change on Tuesday with a close
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00:06:02below 16.92. We're trying to get to 17.97. So far we have not been able to do so.
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00:06:09And then looking at the bear ETF, we need
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00:06:11a close above $11.88. Again, these are very thinly traded.
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00:06:18Anytime that you see a little spec like
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00:06:20that, you know that the symbol that you're looking at is very thinly traded.
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00:06:26Now, moving on from financials to gold and
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00:06:28the gold miners have been doing very well over the past month.
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00:06:32Here we are.
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00:06:34We're still above the upper channel line,
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00:06:36so not concerned about a sell signal on Tuesday.
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00:06:39Inside day yesterday, try to get to 1875.
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00:06:43We're still stuck at the 17 19 level.
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00:06:46We're dancing just above it right now.
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00:06:49Inside day yesterday, we've traded above the January high.
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00:06:53We haven't really broken away just yet.
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00:06:55If we can take out last week's high, then 1875 comes into play.
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00:07:00And there's the Bayer ETF, which also had an inside day on Monday.
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00:07:04Looking at crude oil, and you can see
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00:07:07crude oil took off last week and traded up to the high from a month earlier.
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00:07:13And we're just dangling there in space.
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00:07:17Mathematically, we're trying to get to
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00:07:191563, but the highs from a month ago are holding us in check.
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00:07:24And then, of course, you've got the Bayer
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00:07:26ETF and not expecting a change in trend for either of those on Tuesday.
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00:07:31And then looking at natural gas, you can see the bear ETF.
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00:07:36This is the bear that we're in at the moment.
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00:07:39You can see we traded down through the lower channel line yesterday.
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00:07:42So looking for a close below $70.46 on Tuesday.
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00:07:46We're trying to get to $87.50, unable to do so.
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00:07:50The high from back in February held us in check.
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00:07:53So we're sitting here looking to see if we get a sell signal on Tuesday.
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00:07:58Now, a sell signal on Tuesday may help generate a buy signal in the bull ETF.
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00:08:04We need to close on Tuesday above to 17.41. We closed yesterday at 15.93.
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00:08:11So got a ways to go before we see that buy signal in the bull ETF for natural gas.
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00:08:18Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:08:21We are going to be tinkering with the
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00:08:23website between 9 and 10 this morning, and hopefully the tinkering will not last very
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00:08:29long and we'll get back on track as quickly as possible.
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00:08:34Enjoy the rest of your day.
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00:08:35Should be fairly quiet.
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00:08:37Next time you'll hear my voice
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00:08:39is on Wednesday morning.