Month End 10312023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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In the premarket this morning, stock index
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futures and commodities are trading above fair value.
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So far, it looks like we're going to see
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some buying at the open on Tuesday morning.
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Where we're not going to see some buying?
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Well, that's in JetBlue.
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Jetblue is out with earnings and it's down another 5, 7% in the premarket.
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So if you're short, JetBlue, still no
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reason to buy back the remainder of your position.
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Now it is month end.
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Month end usually has a bullish bias to it.
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That's one of the reasons that we
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recommended that you lock in profits on any long bear ETFs
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or short stocks on Friday if you had not already done so.
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Some people have certainly been locking in profits on the way down.
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We wanted to make sure you did that on
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Friday because we expected the market to turn around this week.
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Now the Fed meeting is going on.
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It's a two-day meeting, of course, and volatility in the stock market should
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start to expand after 2:00 PM, Wednesday afternoon.
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Now, the VIX closed lower yesterday into
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the channel, not enough to give us a sell signal.
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That would happen on Tuesday if the VIX were to close below $18.
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85.
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And if the VIX continues lower from here, that's supportive for higher stock prices.
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The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100
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all closed higher yesterday, all closing above the previous day's high.
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That's a bullish sign.
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It could be the start of something.
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Of course, only time will tell.
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Now, that didn't happen for the TSX.
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The TSX did close higher on Monday, but not above the previous day's high.
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And we saw some big selling in a couple of the TSX 60 stocks.
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First Quantum was down over 28% on the day
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coming into yesterday's trading action, already on a sell signal.
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That is also true for Franco Nevada, which was down over 8% on the day.
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That's one of the reasons
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or two of the reasons why the TSX did not close above Friday's high.
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Now, semiconductors also continued to move lower yesterday.
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At the same time, the best performing
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stock on the S&P 500 on Monday was Western Digital was up nicely, but not enough to
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give us a buy signal, did not close above the previous day's high.
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Then the worst performing stock on the S&P
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500 was ON Semiconductor down over 20 % on the day.
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We also saw a weakness in NXP.
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We also saw a weakness in Analog Devices
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and Microchip Technologies all down on the day pushing the semiconductor index lower.
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What didn't move lower?
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Well, NVIDIA was up on the day 1.63 % on
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the day closing right at the previous day's high.
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Still trying to hold the 406.25 level.
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On Thursday, we dipped down below $400 and came back.
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And so we are finding support there.
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I noticed once again, on Thursday, we put in a lower low.
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That movie is still playing out.
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That has not changed just yet.
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What worked on the TSX?
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Well, it was consumer staples and information technology.
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What didn't work was materials and energy,
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and you saw some material stocks already down.
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Consumer Staples was up, and that was
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Loblaws, George Weston were up nicely yesterday contributing to that.
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Infotech was up and closed above Friday's high.
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That is positive.
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What didn't work?
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Well, we looked at materials or a couple
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of material stocks earlier and it was down on the day.
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We also have the energy sector closing lower.
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I'm not trending lower at the moment.
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We're still on a sell signal here, but certainly there isn't a trend in place.
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Now in the US, everything worked cross the board for all the major S&P sectors, and
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the biggest winner was communication services going up filling that gap.
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That'll be interesting to see what happens next.
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Transports, which were not on the list, but they were performing very well
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yesterday, up nearly 2% on the day, so possibly a bottom for transports.
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We'll just have to wait and see.
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And then we had the financials up.
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Now, while the financial index moved up
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and actually traded above Friday's high, closing right at Friday's High, you'll
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notice that banks, regional banks, and the broker dealers all had inside days, so
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really a day of indecision for the financial sector.
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Now, the weakest of the major US sectors on Monday was the energy sector, closing
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up a third of a %, still trying to hold the $84 level.
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Our mathematical target was $84.38. We
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traded a little below that yesterday, putting in a lower low.
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That theme hasn't changed.
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Of course, the first sign something new is
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happening is if we can close above Friday's high.
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Let's finish off today's presentation
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looking at the major US commodity ETF's, starting with the USO.
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No change in trend there.
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No change in trend for gasoline.
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Big change in trend for natural gas, which
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rolled over and closed below the lower channel line yesterday.
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So natural gas back on a cell signal as of Monday's close.
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Inside day on Monday for the GLD.
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No joy for palladium.
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Platinum continued to move higher on Monday and silver closed higher on Monday.
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And it'll be interesting to see if we can
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take out last week's high for the price of silver.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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Looking for some buying at the open on Tuesday morning.
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Not expecting a lot of volatility.
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Things usually calm down before the Fed meeting is over.
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Of course, that happens at 2:00 PM, Wednesday afternoon.
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Enjoy the rest of your day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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