Stock Market Timing Television - 07202023

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Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.

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com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are mixed.

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The DOW and the TSX are trading slightly

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higher, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are trading slightly lower.

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Commodities are higher in the premarket on Thursday morning.

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Now, the reason we're seeing weakness in

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the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq this morning is a couple of those

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big cap technology stocks that we follow closely are pulling back off of earnings,

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but in both cases, not enough to give us a sell signal.

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Last time I checked, we had Netflix trading right around $449.

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We're looking for a close on Thursday below $440 and 54 cents.

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Tesla currently trading around $280.

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We're looking for a close below

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$274.24. Now, in both cases, if we don't get sell signals on Thursday, those lower

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channel lines are going to continue to move higher daily.

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Now, yesterday we talked about Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin had pulled back.

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It is back on a sell signal.

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Pros are giving up control.

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That is no guarantee that Bitcoin is going to continue to move lower from here.

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Last time I checked, it was trading

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slightly higher in the premarket this morning.

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Those Bitcoin stocks that we looked at

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yesterday, they were trading in the channel for the most part.

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If you go through them and look at the Hut

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8, for example, both in New York and Toronto, still trading in the channel.

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In the channel is neutral, looking for a

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close below the lower channel lines on Thursday to give us absolute sell signals.

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Of course, I hope you've locked in some profits along the way.

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Now, this is about the third time I've tried to get through this presentation.

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Apparently, I want to be really chatty

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this morning, and so I've tried to cut things down as much as possible.

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The VIX traded higher yesterday,

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still at the lower channel line looking for a close on Thursday above

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$14.45. We did put in a bullish reversal day yesterday looking for a move higher.

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We're seeing that in the pre market this morning.

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The pros are starting to take control.

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So if we've got a bullish reversal day in

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the VIX, that could help mark the end of the summer rally.

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If we're looking at the Nasdaq here, the

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queues, and you can see we're down just nine cents yesterday.

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We're down over two dollars last time I checked in the premarket.

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And so if we're going to move down from here, you've got to expect all the levels

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of support port on our price target chart to hold, but the

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market may want to head down to the Flyaper Channel.

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Now, today, if we were to move down to the

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Flyaper Channel, that would be a 13 % decline.

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As time passes, that Flyaper Channel is going to continue to move higher.

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Now, just about every chart has open gaps in the chart and the market will probably

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want to go back and fill those at some point.

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If we were going to get a more severe

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decline and let's say we went back to the high hs from back in January, that would

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be a 20 % decline approximately from where we are right now.

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Of course, time is going to pass.

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The Flyaper Channels are going to move higher.

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Each stock has an open gap that could be a potential target on a summer pullback.

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We'll just have to wait and see.

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We might have to wait to September or October for those gaps to get filled.

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When you're looking at the Flyaper Channel, you can see the thinner

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the channel, the more volatile the stock over the long term.

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You can get a shorter term look at

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volatility by looking at the average true range.

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And you can see the bars have been fairly small over the past few weeks.

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So you've got dramatic long term volatility, much

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smaller short term volatility looking at NVIDIA.

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If NVIDIA went back down and filled the

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open gap from where we are right now, that would be a 33 % decline.

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And then looking at Meta, you can see it's got a nice open gap here and over here.

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Those gaps could get filled at some point,

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but that is not a concern on Thursday morning.

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Now looking at Tesla, you can see that we've got the

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Flyaper Channel just coming up to the 230 level.

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So if we were going to pull back, you have to assume that the market is going to want

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to try to hold support here at the 240 level.

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If that broke down over the next couple of weeks, you're going to find the

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Flyaper Channel is going to be up at that level as well.

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So that could certainly be a place where Tesla traders would want to find support.

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Now for the overall, the vast majority of

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investors in the stock market, and I'm not talking about short term traders, I'm

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talking about investors the question is, did 2023 really happen?

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Because we've watched a handful of stocks

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move higher and most people, if they've got a broadly

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based mutual fund or an ETF, they are participating in this.

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But when we look at the overall market and

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we look at the big cap stocks that the markets are based on, most of

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them haven't moved since the start of the year, whether you're looking at a stock

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like Boeing or Coca Cola or IBM 3M is in anywhere near where it started 2023.

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Then you look at Caterpillar.

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Caterpiller has had an amazing run since the end of May, but where did it get to?

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It's back at where it was at the start of the year.

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Now, when we look at the Canadian market, which has not done as well as the US

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market because it's only got one big cap tech stocks, which is Shopify.

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When you look at those big stocks that are in the TSX 60, you've

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got BCE, you've got Canadian Natural Resources, the Railroads, look at them.

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They haven't done anything all year.

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Then looking at Imperial oil, or you're

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looking at Loblaws for groceries, or you're looking at insurance with Manulife,

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or you're looking at banking with the Royal Bank, or you're looking at mining

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with Teck, these stocks are where they were at the start of the year.

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So for the average investor, nothing's really happened in 2023.

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It's just those handful of big cap stocks.

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And I'm concerned at what's going to happen to the market when those big cap

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tech stocks start to pull back, which they will at some point.

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History tells us that's what's going to happen.

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And if we get a major pullback in those stocks for whatever reason, the rest of

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the market probably won't do very well over the coming six months.

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Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.

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Looking for a pullback at the open, but

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probably not enough to really scare investors.

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And I don't think we'll get a lot of

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overall damage from Thursday's trading action.

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Enjoy the rest of your day.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.

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