Morning Market Outlook 12112023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Monday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from T
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heUpTrend.com In the pre market this morning, and it is fairly early, stock
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index futures and commodities are trading slightly below fair value.
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We're even seeing a pullback in both
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Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of them making new highs last week.
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Bitcoin's next weekly target is 50,000.
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For Ethereum, its next weekly target is 25,000.
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In this presentation, we're mostly going
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to be looking at weekly charts with the odd daily chart thrown in.
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It wasn't that long ago, in fact, it was
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six weeks ago that we were ending our six weeks of fear.
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And the VIX has been on a sell signal for the last six weeks.
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That's supportive for higher stock prices on a long term basis.
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That would change this coming Friday if
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the VIX were to close above $17.32. Then, looking at a daily chart of the VIX, you
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can see we've been trading sideways for the last couple of weeks.
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We're down at four year lows.
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We're going to remain short term bullish
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on the market as long as the VIX does not close above 13.48 on Monday.
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Now, over the past couple of weeks, the US Dollar index has been falling.
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That's been supportive for higher stock prices and a higher gold price, but that
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turned around this week and the US dollar index moved up.
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And we saw the big reversal in the price of gold.
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Gold ran up to our 2125 target and quickly reversed.
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So if you had an order in up there, congratulations, you got filled.
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Now we're looking to see if gold is going to hold 2000 on a short term basis.
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Looking at the daily charts, you can see that we broke the current uptrend line and
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we're back on a daily sell signal as of Friday's close.
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Now, as I mentioned, 2,000 is going to be a big psychological area of support.
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We are trading lower this morning, but I
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don't think we've traded down to 2,000 just yet.
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Looking at a daily chart of the GDX and
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the XGD, both are back on sell signals as of Friday's close.
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Now, we had several opportunities to take
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money off the table on both of those ETFs and Most of the major gold stocks.
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So if you're getting kicked out this morning at the open, you have locked in
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some profits along the way and you should have had a profitable trade.
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Looking at the bonds, bonds continued to
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move higher last week and bond yields continue to move lower.
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That's supportive for higher stock prices.
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What's not supportive?
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Well, in the US, lower energy costs are going to help inflation, they're going to
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help the Fed and help the overall consumer and possibly the US stock market, but it's
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not going to help the Canadian stock market at all.
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So we saw crude oil continue to move lower, down nearly 4%.
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Gasoline in the US was down over 3%.
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That's good for the consumer and the overall economy.
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And then we've got natural gas down nearly 8% on the week.
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So still no joy for natural gas.
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And then looking at energy stocks in Canada, which has a more volatile energy
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sector than the US, energy stocks were down nearly 6%.
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In the US, they were down over 3%.
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Looking at the major US indices, the Dow had a fairly quiet week.
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So did the S&P 500, so did the Nasdaq.
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So no major changes last week.
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Some sector rotation going on, but no
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major pullbacks for the Nasdaq Next Generation.
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So the next hundred stocks, we had a small
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pullback, still closing above $25, so nothing to worry about there.
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Then we had Semiconductors up nicely on the week, making a new high for this move
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that had a lot to do with AMD, which was up over 6% on the week.
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Then looking at the Russell 2000 and the
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Russell Micro Caps, both were up on the week.
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So that's a little bit of sector rotation and watching the rally broaden out a bit.
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That could be healthy for the market going forward.
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Next up, let's take a look at the Canadian market.
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And unfortunately with commodity prices
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pulling back, so did the TSX and the TSX 60.
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We're not that far away from retesting the 2023 highs.
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But if commodity prices aren't going to
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help right now, that might not be in the cards for the month of December.
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That's also true for the TSX 60.
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And then small cap and micro cap stocks
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both pulled back on the week on the back of those falling commodity prices.
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Now financials continued to move higher, as did the Canadian banks.
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And of course that's very supportive for the overall Canadian stock market.
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Industrials had a small pullback while Infotech continued to move higher on the
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back of Bitfarms, which was up over 56% for the week.
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That's a pretty incredible move for that stock BlackBerry was up nearly 8%.
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Quarter Hill was up nearly 8%.
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And then the big elephant in the room was Shopify, which on the week was down 1.13%.
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And we traded in the channel for the whole week.
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We dipped through the lower channel line on Thursday, then recovered on Friday.
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On Monday, we're looking for a close below
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$96..34 If you're following Shopify on the TSX now.
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Telecom stocks moved up this week.
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Cogeco Cable was the big winner, up nearly 8%.
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Still on a weekly sell signal.
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No change there.
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The big winner in the sector over the past
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month has been Rogers, which is up another 2.46% for the week.
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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.
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It's still looking pretty good that we're going to finish the year positively.
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We're going to be watching that daily VIX very closely.
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Looking at the CNN fear and greed index,
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we are certainly seeing some greed right now, but nothing extreme.
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That doesn't mean we can't have some tax
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loss selling going into year end and we may get some sort of pullback here.
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But we're still looking pretty positive as we come up to the Christmas holidays.
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If you've got some extra time and you're looking for something to do, why not
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consider donating blood around the Christmas holidays?
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There's more demand than ever for blood and if you've got the time,
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everybody would really appreciate it if you could consider donating blood.
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Okay, folks, thank you very much for your time and attention.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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