Morning Market Outlook 11202023

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Good morning, everyone.

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And welcome to Monday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, stock index futures are fairly flat.

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Commodities are mixed with crude or

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higher, while gold is down $10 in the premarket on Monday morning.

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While Microsoft's in the news this

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morning, and it's just back to where it was on Friday.

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So it is up nicely.

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It's putting a little bit into Nasdaq

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stocks, but we're really just recovering on Friday.

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Microsoft was down $6.32. This morning,

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it's up $6.25. So again, just back to where we were on Friday.

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Nvidia is the stock to watch, of course, this week.

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It comes out with earnings on Tuesday

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afternoon, and that may set the tone for the market for the rest of the week.

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Now, it is a holiday shortened week with US markets closed on Thursday for

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Thanksgiving and closed a half day on Friday.

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Now, traditionally, things are fairly

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bullish coming into a long weekend, and it's going to be fairly quiet.

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A lot of people are going to be taking Wednesday off.

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A lot of people are actually going to be taking the whole week off.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Monday and

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Tuesday were flat to lower, while Wednesday would be a positive day.

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Thursday, US markets are closed.

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Friday, should be a flat to positive day

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for the market and we should end the week positively, I hope.

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With the US markets closed on Thursday and

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half day on Friday, we're actually going to be closed both days.

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Yes, the Canadian markets will be open, but they'll be very thinly traded.

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A lot of the professionals also take the days off because without guidance from U.

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S. Futures, including U.

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S. Commodity futures, there isn't a lot of

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reasons to take chances on Thursday or Friday.

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So with us closed on Thursday and Friday,

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the weekend update will be done by 3:00 PM Saturday afternoon.

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Now, we are looking at some weekly charts today.

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It is the first day of the week.

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The VIX was down last week.

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And so we're going to remain long term bullish on the stock market as long as the

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VIX does not close above $19.12 this coming Friday.

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And if you're watching the markets on the daily charts, we're short term bullish.

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And we will stay short term bullish on the

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market as long as the VIX does not close above $15.47 on Monday.

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And of course, if that doesn't happen,

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that upper chan line is going to continue to move lower daily.

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Now we are coming into the end of November, and you can see that the VIX

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historically has moved up into the end of November first of December.

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So we wouldn't be surprised to see a little downward pressure next week.

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And of course, we have a whole bunch of gaps that could act as potential targets

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on the way back down and also potential areas of support.

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Remember, on the way up, their resistance

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on the way down, they are potential areas of support.

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Then we expect the VIX to move down.

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Now, we don't actually expect the VIX to

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keep moving down at the same rate it's been moving.

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We wouldn't be surprised if it came back

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down to the previous lows and just traded sideways for a while.

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As long as we stay below the FlyPaper channel, I'm certainly willing to remain

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not only short term bullish, but long term bullish on the market.

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Now last week, we talked about the fact that, yes, we are making higher highs.

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Yes, the chips were going up, but

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we were having trouble getting the rest of the market to go along.

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We're also talking about the fact that while fall in commodity prices are helpful

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to the US market, they can actually hurt the Canadian market.

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When we talk about the chip sector, of course, we're talking about NVIDIA.

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Looking at the weekly chart here, you can

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see $500 is currently acting as resistance.

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If we can break through that, then 562.50 is our next target on the weekly charts.

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We're talking about weekly moves here, not daily moves.

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Now, 500 has been acting as resistance.

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We talk about if you see a price target, a

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profit target of $500, you might want to put your order in a little below that, and

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you can see that that's what the market did.

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They got as high as 499.

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60, and somebody with a sell order in at that level turned the market around, and

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that's as high as we could get for this particular week.

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Now, when we look at a daily chart, the actual next target on the daily chart is

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531.25 before we get to 562.50. If we're looking down on Monday, a close below 4

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67.76, would give us a new sell signal for NVIDIA.

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We're certainly not expecting that to happen on Monday.

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It could certainly happen on Wednesday,

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depending on what happens on Tuesday afternoon.

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Now looking at the broader market, even though we were talking about the risk

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off trade not working up to last week, well, guess what?

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After I posted that, the Russell 2000 moved up over 5% on the week.

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The microcap sector was up over 6%.

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In Canada, it was a bit less.

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We've got small caps up just under 2%, still on a weekly sell signal.

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And the microcap stocks in the venture exchange were up nearly 4%.

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It's hard to notice.

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We're still trading below the lower channel line.

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But you can see that investors did come back into the market and did choose a

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broader range of stocks last week than they had previously done.

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That's a bullish sign for the market going forward.

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Now, speaking of the Canadian market, the TSX was up nicely.

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We're back on a weekly buy signal.

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Remember, we put in a lower-low recently, so that is still in check.

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What we need to do now is put in a higher

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high to tell us that the pattern is starting to change.

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So far, we don't have any evidence of that.

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If you look up, you can see that the

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20,625 level has been resistance for a year now, and it would be a major event if

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we were able to move up and break out above that resistance.

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Not only would it change the pattern?

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But it would certainly tell us to look up to lines all the way up to 21,875.

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That could be our next trading range if we can break through resistance.

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Now what worked? Well, base metals were the big winners.

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They were up 4.47 % on the week, having an

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inside week, so no change in trend for base metals, unlike utilities and

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financials that both ended the week on a buy signal.

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Now we're watching the financials closely.

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We're still dealing with the same pattern of lower highs and lower lows.

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That would change, of course, if we could

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take out the summer high for the financial sector.

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And so far, the financials are being let higher by the insurance companies.

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What didn't work?

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Well, energy stocks actually closed slightly higher on the week.

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We closed up just four cents on the week for the iShare's Energy ETF.

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So we're still on a weekly buy signal here.

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We've traded below the lower channel line

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for the last two weeks, but we have not closed below it.

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Now looking at Wall Street, and of course,

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we're looking for the Nasdaq to lead us higher.

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The Nasdaq ended the week up over 2%,

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and we're heading towards 406.25 with a possible stop at 400,

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which, of course, we consider psychological resistance.

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Now looking at the equal weighted Nasdaq, it actually outperformed the Nasdaq 100.

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So that's a good sign.

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We were up just under 3%.

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And then looking at those...

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Then looking at the next 100 stocks, the

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next Gen stocks, they were up over 3.5% on the week.

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So it's a nice thing to see.

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We're not there for a weekly buy signal

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just yet, but we're certainly heading in the right direction.

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Then looking at semiconductors, they were up nearly 7% on the week.

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So we're back on a weekly buy signal for semiconductors.

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That's a good sign for the market.

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And then what worked this week?

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Well, regional banks were up just under 10% on the week.

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Then we had BioTech stocks up nicely,

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still on a weekly sell signal, no change there.

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Unlike the banking sector, which

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was up over 8% on the week, that's a huge move for US banks.

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And we're back on a weekly buy signal heading towards those summer highs.

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What also worked were the silver stocks.

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They were up nearly eight % on the week.

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Not enough to give us a buy signal, but certainly a big move.

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We may see a little pullback in the precious metal sectors on Monday with gold

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and silver, both trading lower in the premarket.

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What didn't work in the US?

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Well, it was oil and gas equipment was

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actually the only major sector that closed lower on the week.

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Let's finish off with those five charts.

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The US dollar index was down on the week.

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That is supportive for higher stock prices in the North American markets.

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Then we had bonds trading higher on the week and bond yields coming down.

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Again, that's supportive for higher stock prices.

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The price of gold was up $47 on the week.

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We're still on a weekly buy signal here, so no change in trend.

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We're down $10 $11 in the premarket on Monday morning.

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I think this week might turn out to be an inside week for the price of gold.

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Then looking at crude oil, crude oil was

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down a $1.11 on the week making a new low for this move.

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It's actually up more than that in the premarket on Monday morning.

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With crude oil prices falling, that, of

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course, is helpful for inflation, take some pressure off the Fed.

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Some people also look at it as a sign that the recession might be starting.

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Well, crude oil has trended lower, and

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we've been lower than where we are right now.

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I don't think there's any conclusive

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things you can take away from the falling crude oil prices for the last few weeks.

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But at the same time, if we look at what's

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happening in the travel industry, this is supposed to be a huge week for US travel,

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biggest week in probably four or five years.

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There's going to be a lot of interest in anything travel related.

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It could be a buy the rumor, sell the news type situation.

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We're getting all this positive news about how many people are going to be traveling,

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how many people are going to be taking planes, staying in hotels.

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All of that is good news.

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But just remember, it's usually buy the rumor, sell the news.

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And so what's going up this week may go down next week.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Thank you very much for your time and attention.

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And the next time you'll hear my voice is on Tuesday morning.

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