Stock Market Trends- 09132023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Wednesday morning.

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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.

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In the premarket this morning, ahead of the inflation numbers that come out at

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8:30, things are fairly quiet, not a lot of commitment either way.

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Of course, once those inflation numbers come out, we expect volatility to expand,

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have no idea which way the market is going to go after those numbers come out.

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So far, the VIX is still on a sell signal

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this week, which is supportive for higher stock prices.

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That would change on Wednesday if the VIX

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were to close, not trade, but close above $15.07. Now, how the Fed calculates

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inflation and all the things they're looking at, I'm not sure how they couldn't

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determine that inflation is still a major issue and they should raise rates.

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But the way that they look at the numbers

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and how they weight things, of course, changes over time.

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They could see something and just put a

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different weighting on it than the rest of us would.

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But when we look at commodity prices, we've got crude oil making a new high

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yesterday, gasoline up testing the recent high.

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Even natural gas came back yesterday, and

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we're looking at the UNG, and it recently made a lower-low.

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Now we'll have to see if it can break this short term pattern here and make a higher

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high, which would be short term bullish for natural gas.

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Now looking at some longer term commodity

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charts, looking at the bacon, you can see we're up at the highs of 2023.

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We've got hamburger up at the highs of 2023.

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We've got cocoa or chocolate up at the highs of 2023.

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That's a similar situation for underwear or cotton.

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Then we're looking at frozen concentrated orange juice up at the highs of 2023, and

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the price of sugar up at the highs of 2023.

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So all that is very inflationary.

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Of course, how the Fed looks at it is not

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the same as how you and I would look at it.

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Some commodities that are not up at the top of the range for 2023: coffee is

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actually down near the lows of 2023, and so is the price of lumber.

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Well, what worked on Tuesday?

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Well, it was the energy sector on both sides of the border.

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Looking at individual stocks, the biggest winner on the TSX 60 was Suncor.

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On the TSX itself, it was Vermilion.

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Looking at the S&P 500, when we're looking to energy stocks, the big

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winner was Occidental, followed by Marathon.

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Marathon had a big reversal day yesterday.

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If you're trading marathon, I want to sit on my hands for a day and see what happens

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next, see if we can get another confirming close above the upper channel line.

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Now, ahead of the energy stocks on the S&P

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500, the biggest winner was Zion followed by PNC, followed by Keycorp.

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Those were the biggest winners on the S&P 500.

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Now, those big gains were not enough to take the ETF back on a buy signal.

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We're still waiting for a buy signal for regional banks and banks to join

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the SPYDR Financial ETF already on a buy signal.

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That has more to do with broker dealers, but especially the insurance companies,

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which are trading back up at the recent highs.

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Looking north of the border, the TSX

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Financial Index is sitting right on the edge of a new buy signal.

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Banks moved up yesterday.

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They're getting pretty close to a buy signal.

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Then the big winner yesterday was the National Bank, and then we had the Royal

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Bank both trade up and closed in the channel.

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So we're one trading day away from a possible buy signal.

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And just like in the US, insurance stocks are holding up very well north of the

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border, whether you're looking at Manulife or SunLife.

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Now, I always talk about Fairfax being

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Canada's version of Berkshire Hathaway and it is still holding up very well, not

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looking as good as Berkshire Hathaway itself, which made a new high yesterday.

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And Berkshire Hathaway is listed as an

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insurance stock, so that matches up pretty well with the insurance index.

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Looking at the major index ETF, starting

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with the iShares for the TSX60, we hit the upper channel line yesterday.

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So looking for a close on Wednesday above $30.65. Then looking at the NASDAQ 100,

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trading in the channel yesterday, no change in trend there.

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Unlike semiconductors, which made a new closing low for this move.

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Then looking at the DOW still on a sell signal, no change there.

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We've traded through the upper channel

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line two days in a row, but have not closed above it.

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Then looking at the S&P 500, we traded down yesterday still in the channel.

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We're looking for a close on Wednesday

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below 4:44.86. Now you can break up the S&P 500 several ways.

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One way is to look at the equal weighted

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version, so not giving your stocks like Apple overweighting.

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Each stock is equally weighted within the index.

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It is on a sell signal right now.

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So is the low volatility.

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So this is 100 stocks out of the S&P 500 with the lowest volatility.

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They recently made a new low before moving back up into the channel.

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And then the high beta stocks are also on a sell signal.

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That has a lot to do with one stock, and that was Apple, which plunged last week.

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You can see when the ETF rolled over and

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you can see Apple are rolling over there as well.

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So Apple was down yesterday.

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Looking at the rest of the high beta

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stocks that we follow, we've got Alphabet still on a buy signal, no change there.

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Amazon having an inside day.

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Then we saw Meta pull back closing in the channel.

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We also saw Microsoft close within the channel.

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No change in trend for NVIDIA had an inside day on Tuesday.

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And no change in trend for Tesla, which made a new high for this move.

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And that shows up as a bearish reversal day.

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But remember, we did not close below the previous day's low, so not overly

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concerned about that bearish reversal signal just yet.

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And you can see that we're getting pretty close to getting to that open gap up here,

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which could certainly be a target, whether it's the bottom or the top.

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But we may see Tesla trade up to those levels on Wednesday.

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Last up, let's take a look at what's going on with the hard stuff.

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Things that if it drops on your foot is going to hurt.

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Copper traded up into the channel for the

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second day in a row, so no change in trend there.

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A small pullback.

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Gold was down yesterday.

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Silver was up slightly on Tuesday.

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It is still stuck to the 20, 23, 43 level, so that's still holding us in check.

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Then looking at the gold miners in the

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channel once again, no change in trend for the GDX or the XGD or Silver Miners.

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No changes in trend from Tuesday's training action.

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Okay, folks, that is all for this morning's presentation.

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Normally, I tell you to think about donating blood.

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If you're in the US right now, there is a crisis going on.

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There's been a whole bunch of climate disasters over the past month or so.

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And if you have the time, please consider donating blood.

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I've heard people complain about the waiting time to donate blood.

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I don't ever experience that.

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We make appointments and I've never had any trouble.

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I've donated over 50 times and I've never

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once had to wait for more than five minutes from my appointment time.

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So I don't understand how the system works in the US.

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I've never had any personal experience with it.

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But if you are south of the border, please

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considering donating blood not only for somebody else's wellbeing, but it's

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important for your own personal wellbeing as well.

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Have a great day, folks.

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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.

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