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00:00:00Good Morning, everyone, and welcome to Thursday morning.
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00:00:03It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.
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00:00:06Com.
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00:00:06In this presentation, we're going to take a closer look at the Canadian market.
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00:00:10Of course, we can start off looking at what's ahead of us this
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00:00:14morning, and we do have some economic numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning,
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00:00:18which could add to the premarket volatility.
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00:00:22Now, ahead of these numbers, the
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00:00:24stock index futures are trading above fair value.
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00:00:26DOW, futures currently up about 100 points.
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00:00:29The US markets are on a sell
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00:00:32signal, and so the Canadian US markets are moving in sync at the moment.
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00:00:36We can start off today's presentation taking a look at commodities.
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00:00:40The price of wheat spiked through the top of the panic zones back in early 2022.
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00:00:47About a year ago when the war started in
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00:00:51Ukraine, wheat prices have come all the way back.
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00:00:54We are currently on a sell signal and we're currently in a bear market.
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00:00:59The price of wheat is certainly not part of the inflation
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00:01:03equation at the moment, and neither is the price of lumber, which had a nice big run
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00:01:08up in January and gave up all of those gains in February.
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00:01:13Looking at the price of crude oil, we're currently on a sell signal trying to hold
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00:01:1771.88. Now, you'll notice a lot of energy stocks look very similar to this where we
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00:01:21put in a high in January and a lower high in February.
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00:01:25So that's a bullish chart pattern on a short term basis.
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00:01:28Now, we're looking to see if we can hold the recent lows.
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00:01:3271.88 is our mathematical target, but we certainly dipped below that level.
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00:01:37And there's a low back in December that the market will be watching closely.
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00:01:41Now, natural gas.
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00:01:43Last time we talked about natural gas, we talked about it holding 2.34.
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00:01:47And over the last couple of days, it's come down to that level.
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00:01:51And yesterday it closed above it at
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00:01:532.44. The pros don't look like they want to be sellers at this point, but it
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00:01:58doesn't look like they want to be buyers either.
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00:02:00So to get natural gas off the floor, we
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00:02:03need the pros to come back and take control.
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00:02:06And that has not started just yet.
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00:02:09Inside date for the price of copper yesterday, third day of a buy signal.
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00:02:13Unfortunately, gold and silver are going in the opposite directions.
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00:02:18For the price of gold, if things were to
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00:02:20turn around on Thursday, we're looking for a close above 1878.
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00:02:24Otherwise, the market is trying to hold the 200 day moving average.
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00:02:27In the premarket this morning, we are trading slightly below that level.
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00:02:32So this might not be the day that crude oil turns around.
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00:02:35We might have to go down to 1812.50 to find support.
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00:02:39And you can see the pros are down at the bottom of the
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00:02:44chart, but they have not started to turn around just yet.
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00:02:47Now, we recently had a bullish reversal
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00:02:49day both in the price of gold and the price of silver.
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00:02:53For silver, we're looking for a close above 22.38 on Thursday.
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00:02:57Not expecting that to happen, but there's
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00:03:00that bullish reversal day off of support at
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00:03:0321.25. So if we take that out, then a move down to $20 would not be unreasonable.
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00:03:10Looking at the Canadian
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00:03:11stock market, starting with the TSX, the TSX, so a big caps.
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00:03:15The TSX 60, midcaps, small caps all on sell signals right now.
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00:03:20What's not really selling off at the moment is the venture exchange, which has
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00:03:24held up very well over the past couple of days.
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00:03:27You can see it looks like we put in a lower high there
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00:03:31on Tuesday and Wednesday we came down, but we're still on a buy signal.
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00:03:37Cannabis stocks are down at the December lows and we might find some support here.
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00:03:42Then looking at consumer discretionary, of course, if you're going
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00:03:46into a recession, consumer discretionary should be losing and consumer staples
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00:03:51should be winning and that's what's going on right now.
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00:03:55Then looking at energy stocks, again, here's a lower high from last week.
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00:04:01That's bearish. Now we're putting in a lower low.
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00:04:03Of course, this is a short term analysis.
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00:04:06Of course, taking up this low would
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00:04:08certainly be a lot more significant, but that is a bearish chart pattern.
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00:04:12So not looking for a lot of love for the energy sector over the next week or two.
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00:04:18Then we're looking at financials.
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00:04:20They're back on a sell signal.
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00:04:21Canadian banks are back on a sell signal.
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00:04:24Then looking at the gold sector, which is
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00:04:26sold off during the month of February, not expecting a change there anytime soon.
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00:04:31We are starting to break down below 265.63. If we continue, then 250
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00:04:37would certainly be our next target to the downside.
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00:04:41There's the global mining index making a new low for this move on Wednesday today.
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00:04:45Then we've got industrials and industrials on a sell
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00:04:49signal, but there's really no downward momentum at the moment.
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00:04:54And InfoTech, of course, we've been following Shopify and Shopify is on a sell
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00:04:58signal right now and that's not helpful for the infotec sector.
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00:05:02Then we've got real estate holding up
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00:05:04fairly well and telecom stocks holding up fairly well at the moment.
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00:05:10Let's finish off today's presentation taking a look at the TSX volume leaders.
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00:05:14When we look at the top 10 list, there's only two that are possibly winners here.
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00:05:19Manulife is currently ranked at nine, and
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00:05:22then we've got Sun Life currently ranked at five.
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00:05:26Otherwise, everything else doesn't look very healthy.
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00:05:30There's Suncor.
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00:05:31Suncor made a higher high last week before
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00:05:33pulling back, so we're on our third day of a sell signal for Suncor.
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00:05:38And then we've got Enbridge making a new
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00:05:40low, breaking down below the December lows.
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00:05:43So that's not very bullish.
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00:05:45Then we've got Manulife holding up fairly well up here.
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00:05:49We're looking for a close on Thursday below 26.
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00:05:5214 to give us a sell signal.
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00:05:54Yesterday was an inside day for Manulife.
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00:05:57Then we've got Crescent Point making a
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00:05:59lower low last week and making a lower low of this week.
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00:06:02So that's a bearish chart pattern.
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00:06:05Then we've got Barrick making a new low on Wednesday.
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00:06:08Then we've got Canadian Natural Resources again, another stock putting in a lower
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00:06:13high last week and now a lower low this week.
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00:06:17Then we're looking at Cenovus , similar situation for Cenovus .
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00:06:21Then we've got BCE holding up.
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00:06:24We're on a buy signal right now, sitting
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00:06:25right on the edge of a new daily sell signal.
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00:06:29Then we've got Kinross making a new low yesterday.
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00:06:32Then we've got Sun Life back on a sell signal as of Wednesday's close.
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00:06:37As you can see, we hit 68.75. If you had an order in up there
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00:06:41that got filled, we are back on a sell signal.
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00:06:44If you want to give the stock a little more breathing room, you can always move
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00:06:47over to the mid term chart and give it another day or two to see if it'll hold.
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00:06:52We're looking for a close on Thursday below $66.
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00:06:57That would certainly give us a new sell signal on the midterm chart for Sun Life.
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00:07:03Okay, folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
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00:07:05Not a lot of things to get excited about on Thursday morning.
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00:07:09We'll see what volatility
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00:07:11and market direction the US economic numbers give us after 8:30, but
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00:07:16I'm not looking for a lot of new buy signals from Thursday's trading action.
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00:07:21Have a great day, folks.
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00:07:22Next time you'll hear my voice is on Friday morning.
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00:07:25You.