Morning Market Outlook 11142023

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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tuesday morning.
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It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com.
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Well, yesterday was a fairly quiet day.
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It was an inside day for a lot of technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100.
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This morning is fairly quiet as well.
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We are waiting for CPI numbers that are coming out at 8:30 this morning and that
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could add some volatility in the premarket.
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We also have a whole bunch of Fed speakers this week.
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I think there's 20 of them out there.
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They could also add some intraday volatility to the market depending on what
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they say and how people take to what they say.
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The VIX had an inside day on Monday.
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We're looking for a close on Tuesday above
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$16.69 to give us a buy signal for the VIX.
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That, of course, would be negative for stocks, Apple, Amazon, Meta.
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They all had inside days on Monday.
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Those are days of indecision, pause days.
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We're looking for a breakout of the
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previous day's range to tell us which way the market wants to go next.
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There's the Nasdaq-100 with an inside day
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on Monday, also an inside day for chip stocks in the semiconductor sector.
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Not so much for the DOW.
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It edged slightly higher.
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The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on the
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day, and then the TSX closed up on the day.
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We're still dealing with the bearish
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reversal signal from a couple of weeks ago and looking for a move up to 30.
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47, and that would take us up to the
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bottom of that open gap if we can take out the high from a couple of weeks ago.
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Looking at the S&P sectors, five of the 11 were up on the day, but to notice that
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energy stocks were up less than 1 % while utilities were down over 1 %.
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So a little more weakness than strength on Monday.
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If we go through the Fly Paper channel
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charts for the different sectors, you'll notice that only a couple are actually
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holding the market up at the moment, and that is certainly technology.
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Typically, when a market is trading above the Fly Paper channel, we consider it in a
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bull market, and investors typically like to buy the dips.
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When we're in the channel, it's neutral.
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We call the FlyPaper channel because symbols get stuck to it.
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You'll notice that when we saw a weakness in September and October, the technology
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sector was still stuck to the bottom of the FlyPaper channel.
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Even though we were seeing weakness, we couldn't break away from it.
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And then eventually, we turned around and started to move back up.
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Communication services, pretty similar.
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These are where all the technology stocks
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and social media stocks that everybody loves to follow.
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This is where those stocks are located.
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Then when we start walking through the rest of the sectors, you'll notice that
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most of them are either stuck in the FlyPaper channel or are below it.
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And that's not a good sign.
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We need that to change if we're going to
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take the rest of the market up with us into year end.
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But so far, financials are stuck.
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We've got consumer discretionary stuck,
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consumer staples stuck, not even able to get into the channel at the moment.
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Then we've got industrials, healthcare, looking at the material sector, not
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looking very pretty, not looking pretty for real estate.
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Then looking at just utilities, for example, this is how it works.
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Back in October, this is how the utilities looked.
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At that time, I would have asked you to
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look up to the Fly Paper channel looking for a move up to the $62 to $65 area.
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Notice that's pointing down at the time.
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You can just take your mouse and just move it across, follow the channel down.
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A month later, here's what happened.
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We moved up into the Fly Paper channel,
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stopped, and are starting to pull back down.
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Fly Paper channel is still holding us in check for the utility sector.
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Then looking at the energy sector, which has held the market up in 2023, has
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started to break down below the Fly Paper channel.
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That's not a good sign for the energy sector.
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It could be a good sign for the inflation picture and for consumers in
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general if crude oil continues to move lower from here.
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Looking at the Canadian market, and we did
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have energy and technology up at the top yesterday.
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What didn't work? Well, some of the interest sensitive areas
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such as real estate and utilities didn't pan out very well on Monday.
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Looking at consumer staples, they've been the big winner over the past few weeks.
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And then the infotech, of course, looks very similar to how it looks in the US.
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Energy stocks are holding the recent lows, unlike the US market.
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And let's hope they continue to hold those lows at the 250 level.
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What's not working?
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Well, materials are not working.
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And then anything to do with mining?
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There's the Global Mining Index, there's the Global Gold Index.
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Then looking at financials, they're just
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getting into the Fly Paper channel right now, so are the industrials.
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We've got consumer discretionary up at the top of the Fly Paper channel still unable
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to break out above the highs from a couple of months ago.
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Then we've got healthcare, which traded into the channel and pulled back.
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We've got marijuana stocks that traded up to the channel and pulled back.
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Then looking at real estate, again,
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hitting the flypaper channel and starting to pull back.
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Telecom services have traded up into the
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FlyPaper channel and are holding the highs from back in September.
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Those are holding them in check at the moment.
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It's not a pretty picture.
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Even though we had a big rally, it has not been able to cause most of the sectors to
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be able to break out above the FlyPaper channel to tell us that
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things are clearing up and the market is becoming more bullish.
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It is still a handful of stocks that are leading this market higher.
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That doesn't mean you can't trade up into
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the FlyPaper channel and trade it back down.
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But if people are hoping for a year-end
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rally that's broadly based, so far, that has not started at all.
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Okay, folks, everybody's waiting for those CPI numbers coming at 8:30.
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Have a great day.
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Next time you'll hear my voice is on Wednesday morning.

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