-
00:00:00Good morning everyone. Welcome to Wednesday morning.
-
00:00:02It's Stephen Whiteside here from theuptrend.com well.
-
00:00:06Yesterday morning at this time the market was having a wild ride in the premarket.
-
00:00:10Things settled down later in the day.
-
00:00:12This morning things are fairly quiet, but
-
00:00:14we are expecting things to change after 02:00 p.m. As today is a Fed day.
-
00:00:19And of course with Volatility expanding,
-
00:00:22you don't know which way the market is going to go.
-
00:00:24Yesterday we had a huge thrust to the upside.
-
00:00:26We gave up a lot of those gains going into the close for a lot of symbols.
-
00:00:30We had Bearish Reversal day yesterday, but
-
00:00:33for the most part the market still closed positive on the day.
-
00:00:37So those Bearish Reversal days are not that damaging so far.
-
00:00:41Now if we're looking at the QQQ's which
-
00:00:44had a bear traversal day yesterday, you can see that we actually ran up and hit
-
00:00:47our next price target before the market reversed.
-
00:00:50So congratulations. If you had an order in up at that level
-
00:00:54that got filled yesterday before the market pulled back.
-
00:00:57Now a couple of stocks I watched closely,
-
00:00:59Apple I'm currently short, that did not change yesterday.
-
00:01:02Even though we traded through the upper
-
00:01:04channel line, we still closed in the channel.
-
00:01:06And then Tesla, Tesla is in the news once
-
00:01:09again making new lows yesterday and we did not trade below 156.
-
00:01:1425.
-
00:01:15That support level is still acting as support.
-
00:01:18If it breaks then 125 is our next target to the downside.
-
00:01:22Now the big winner yesterday was Moderna up nearly 20%.
-
00:01:26Unfortunately our system generated a sell
-
00:01:28signal on the day before with Moderna closing down nearly 7%.
-
00:01:34Now if you came in yesterday morning you
-
00:01:36saw the futures were up, you saw Moderna was going to open up at 187.
-
00:01:3933. You would not have taken that trade.
-
00:01:42So congratulations.
-
00:01:44We are looking to the downside from Moderna to find support at 162 50.
-
00:01:49That actually happened on Monday and then
-
00:01:51on Tuesday our next target to the upside was 200 and we hit that.
-
00:01:55So congratulations to anyone still holding Moderna.
-
00:01:59Then looking at the VIX had a wild day yesterday.
-
00:02:02You can see we made a new high for this move before coming back and closing in the
-
00:02:06channel and trading right down to the lower channel line.
-
00:02:10So on Wednesday we're looking for a close below 21.
-
00:02:1351 to give us a sell signal that of course is supportive for higher stock prices.
-
00:02:18If that happens then we saw the US dollar
-
00:02:20index make a new low yesterday that is supportive for higher stock prices.
-
00:02:24Bonds made a new high yesterday.
-
00:02:26Then we saw the price of gold continue to
-
00:02:29move higher, making a new high for this move.
-
00:02:32We saw crude oil move up into the channel.
-
00:02:34We saw natural gas back on a buy signal as of Tuesday's close.
-
00:02:38Then looking at the major stock market
-
00:02:40index, ETFs, the Dow Diamond is back on a buy signal.
-
00:02:43The SPY for the S&P 500 is back on a buy signal.
-
00:02:48The triple Q's is back on a buy signal.
-
00:02:50But unfortunately the Ishares for the TSX
-
00:02:5260 did not generate a buy signal yesterday.
-
00:02:55We did trade above the upper channel line
-
00:02:57before coming down and closing below the lower channel line.
-
00:03:01Now what worked on the TSX?
-
00:03:03Well, gold stocks led the market higher
-
00:03:05with Barrick being the big winner on the TSX 60.
-
00:03:10Unfortunately, going in the opposite direction were bank stocks being led lower
-
00:03:14by the TD bank, which held up fairly well over the last couple of weeks.
-
00:03:19Then looking at what worked in the US.
-
00:03:21Well, just like in Canada, it was the gold
-
00:03:23stocks what didn't work and not much of a major breakdown here.
-
00:03:27Consumer Staples stocks got hit and it was
-
00:03:31Kroger was the stock in that sector that led consumer staples lower on Tuesday.
-
00:03:38Okay folks, that's all for this morning's presentation.
-
00:03:41Well, today is going to be very stressful.
-
00:03:43It's going to be a very hard day to live through.
-
00:03:46We're expecting volatility to expand this afternoon, certainly after the
-
00:03:50announcement comes out at two and then later when the press conference starts.
-
00:03:55The first thrust is typically not the ultimate direction the market goes.
-
00:04:00Yesterday we saw the Dow trade up over 1000 points in the pre market and then
-
00:04:05during the day it turned negative a couple of times.
-
00:04:08So it's really no guarantee that that first expansion of volatility is not the
-
00:04:14direction the market will end up in at the end of the day.
-
00:04:18If you're nervous today, you might want to take some money off the table and reduce
-
00:04:22your positions and just wait to see what happens.
-
00:04:25A lot of people are betting that the
-
00:04:27seasonal tendency to the upside is supposed to start right now and they want
-
00:04:31to jump on board and watch the market move higher.
-
00:04:34Of course, they probably have never thought about the implications of tax loss
-
00:04:38selling, what that does to the market between now and the end of the year.
-
00:04:43So there's a lot of nervous people out there.
-
00:04:46A lot of people think they know which way the market is going to go today and are
-
00:04:49putting short term bets on today as they did yesterday.
-
00:04:54And a lot of them got caught on the wrong side of the market yesterday.
-
00:04:57So a lot of short term activity going on
-
00:05:00may not change the overall direction of the market at the end of the day.
-
00:05:05We'll just have to wait and see.
-
00:05:07Okay, thank you very much for your time and attention.
-
00:05:09Next time you'll hear my voice is on Thursday morning.
-
00:05:41Thank you.